Stock picks

Stocks up again today
Amazing
This why I just buy and hold rather then trade
After Last weeks record closing
I thought market would go down today
Nope
Up
Thrilled

What an amazing day for stocks today.
In the acct I play with, own about 25 stocks
Even on a good day, a few will lose
As of this moment
Every single stock I own is up today
I've never seen that since I bought a year ago
Of course I'm just recovering what I lost the last several sessions
But
Its thrilling to see everything in green for a daily performance

Quote: terapined

What an amazing day for stocks today.
In the acct I play with, own about 25 stocks
Even on a good day, a few will lose
As of this moment
Every single stock I own is up today
I've never seen that since I bought a year ago
Of course I'm just recovering what I lost the last several sessions
But
Its thrilling to see everything in green for a daily performance

I’m happy too! But whatever caused them to tank earlier has not changed! But up is up…..

Raise some cash SooPoo, trim your growth stock winners and get at least 25% in dry powder.
Leave your value/dividend plays out there, I think there is going to be a rotation from growth to value coming.
I am currently 50% in Cash & precious metals, PM"s have been painful recently, but I think they recover as they held support levels.
The rest of the year is going to be no good as shortages abound everywhere.
That will drive up prices & inflation due to scarcity, not an increased demand situation. There is a 70's term for that I think.
I predict we hear lots of downward revisions to earnings estimates for Q4 as part of Q3 Conference Calls.
It will be blamed on supply chain disruptions, Covid shut downs in Asia, shipping delays, labor shortages, etc.
The S&P 500 is priced to perfection at 22X current earnings, with 7-10% earnings growth expected in 2022?!?
It could be a geopolitical problem that sets us off, China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine or Terrorist Attack
The consumer is going to suffer as well, with the stopping of bonus UI payments/renter evictions.
IRS just sent notices out to taxpayer's that deferred Soc. Sec/Medicare Tax under Trump's stupid plan for 2019 & 2020 tax returns.
All federal workers/military were forced onto that plan & none of them saved the extra taxes that need to be partially repaid by 12/31.
That won't make for a great Christmas! But there won't be anything on the shelves this year anyway. Do your shopping early!
Jobless Claims are up and if the September Jobs numbers don't report a big surprise, that print is going to generate a big down day.
Covid cases are waning and deaths appear to have peaked in the US, so that appears positive unless we get a Fall/Winter spike in NE.
With 72% of NYC blacks aged 18-44 unvaccinated it was nice to see BLM rallying against those racist Vaccine Mandates :-)
The GOP is going to make the Dems raise the debt ceiling, by themselves
I think the 9/27 House deadline on Real Infrastructure bill comes and goes without a vote
Nothing looks very pretty from my perspective for big gains thru the end of the year, just my $0.02.
I am as defensive as I was when Apple said in Feb. of 2020 that they foresaw supply chain issues due to a mysterious virus in China.
But then again with 23% YTD in the bag for 2021, I don't care that much if I miss out of some gains if I have it all wrong.
I am certainly open to hearing the positive side of the economic story for the rest of the year, so bring it if you've got it.

JCW, I can’t refute a single thing you wrote. But on the flip side, I am not confident that a single thing you wrote will come true! I just know I’m not smart enough to ‘time the market’ or ‘rotate into an undervalued sector’ or ‘hold cash’ in any + EV manner. The only thing I’ve done recently is buy XYLD, QYLD, and RYLD. I really just wanted to lock in a good % yield with lower volatility. The past few weeks proved that they have more volatility than I thought.

Fair enough, long term staying invested is probably the right answer.
We'll have to see if raising a little cash now gives me the opportunity to buy back lower later.
Like I said, pretty happy closing out the year up 20%+, "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" as they say.
Most of my funds are tax protected so you'd have to factor in the tax costs on raising cash if you are in a taxable account.
Keep watching the Bond Market, those traders are always the smartest guys in the room.
10Yr Treasury above 1.72% is a warning sign, we go through 1.92% and the equity markets are going to have a fit.
Actually they are likely to have a fit if we just slowly float towards those numbers.
At some point, equity traders will see the inflation writing on the wall.
PM's should work out well if the inflation trend continues, but they have been mostly pain in 2021 after a super 2020 return.
If nothing else, get a little more exposure to Silver beyond your minor Gold position.
I prefer PSLV but SLV works as well if you are a JPMorgan fan :-).

Quote: JCW09

Fair enough, long term staying invested is probably the right answer.
We'll have to see if raising a little cash now gives me the opportunity to buy back lower later.
Like I said, pretty happy closing out the year up 20%+, "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" as they say.
Most of my funds are tax protected so you'd have to factor in the tax costs on raising cash if you are in a taxable account.
Keep watching the Bond Market, those traders are always the smartest guys in the room.
10Yr Treasury above 1.72% is a warning sign, we go through 1.92% and the equity markets are going to have a fit.
Actually they are likely to have a fit if we just slowly float towards those numbers.
At some point, equity traders will see the inflation writing on the wall.
PM's should work out well if the inflation trend continues, but they have been mostly pain in 2021 after a super 2020 return.
If nothing else, get a little more exposure to Silver beyond your minor Gold position.
I prefer PSLV but SLV works as well if you are a JPMorgan fan :-).

The concept of owning precious metals is the same as owning crypto. There is no real reason for the very high worth of either. But….. that does not mean I don’t think there are people making boatloads trading both types of assets. I will likely buy that PSLV on Monday. Another thing for me to follow!

Quote: SOOPOO

The concept of owning precious metals is the same as owning crypto. There is no real reason for the very high worth of either. But….. that does not mean I don’t think there are people making boatloads trading both types of assets. I will likely buy that PSLV on Monday. Another thing for me to follow!

I disagree. Precious metals are needed to make many products that wouldn't exist without them. They have utility.

Quote: DRich

I disagree. Precious metals are needed to make many products that wouldn't exist without them. They have utility.

Reading comprehension my friend! I said ‘very high’. I understand there would be a floor of value for industrial uses. But you can’t tell me gold is $28,000 a pound because of its use in industry.

Agree with both you and DRich.
PM's are an inflation hedge to a degree.
Silver has more industrial use than gold & represents a non-insignificant use for Ag.
But they are both trading types of investments, buy and hold hasn't worked out for PM's.
Ratio of Gold to Silver right now favors SIlver, but I have a smaller position in GLD as well.
But those spikes, particularly in Silver in the last decade have been nice.
$35 spot is where Silver should be IMHO, up 50%+ from here and no reason in a inflation panic it can't spike back up to $50.
I would likely start becoming a seller at $40 and unload the whole boat at $45-$50 spot price/oz.