Electoral College Vote Predictions

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November 3rd, 2020 at 12:03:59 PM permalink
JCW09
Member since: Aug 27, 2018
Threads: 12
Posts: 847
Quote: Pacomartin
In case of a tie, Trump should win a contingent election 37 to 23 (using your voting predictions).I am presuming states will vote the same as their popular vote.

My understanding is the recent elected House of Representatives of each State cast one vote each to determine their State vote
Therefore the State will likely cast its one tie breaking vote for the party of the majority of their House Members.
Therefore you look at the make up of each State's House Members to figure out how the State will vote.
The complication is that it is based on House Reps that were voted in based on today's results, not the current House Members.
Before today, the GOP held the lead under this method 26-23 (PA is tied in same number of House Reps from each side).
So the Dems will need to flip more than two states House of Reps majority to get the upper hand in case of a tie.
I don't believe there is a fall back methodology if this tie breaker ends in a 25-25 tie.
Likely goes to SCOTUS who will decide the tie goes to the runner/champion/incumbant. I am kidding, no idea what will happen.
I am open to the above methodology being incorrect if someone else has better info.
For what it is worth, I was concerned about an EC Tie months ago and posted the same.
Someone somewhere said it was laughable to think an EC Tie could be the outcome.
I guess we shall see, but since it has become chatter here, maybe it isn't that far fetched afterall.
It will be an unmitigated disaster for the country, particularly if Trump wins under a tie breaker methodology.
Let's all hope this outcome does not become reality, hope for AZ and PA going to the same candidate.
Def. of Liar - "A Person Who Tells Lies" / "I lied. Deal with it" - ams288
November 3rd, 2020 at 12:34:27 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422
Quote: Shrek
This what Arnold Snyder wrote within the past hour:
Quote:
Florida, 10:30 am PT
Republicans are now up 123k in all combined early and ED voting in Florida. That’s 10k over Trump’s win in 2016.

Florida indies are voting 47.9% by mail (favorable to D’s), 52.1% by in-person early vote and ED (favorable to R’s), with a lot more ED to go. Indies are highly likely skewing red.

Monroe County, Florida: Dems total early & ED = 14,008. GOP total early and ED = 15,716. That’s a 1708 margin for Trump with half of ED still to go. GOP is in line to beat 2016 here. No Democrat has ever won Florida without winning Monroe.

Marco Rubio: “Early turnout reports indicate Florida is witnessing a GOP voter participation percentage of historic proportions.”

https://toplessvegasonline.com/election-day-live/

Lookin good! 👍


I find BangBros has much better election coverage than ToplessVegasOnline.

YMMV
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
November 3rd, 2020 at 5:20:08 PM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
DECISION DESK CALLS FLORIDA FOR TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323795071104417793
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:06:56 PM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4157
Ohio. North Carolina. Not looking good for Trump. But we can’t tell if it is predominantly Trump counties that have not reported. Seems like Florida is for Trump. But same issue.
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:08:33 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12422
Quote: SOOPOO
Ohio. North Carolina. Not looking good for Trump. But we can’t tell if it is predominantly Trump counties that have not reported. Seems like Florida is for Trump. But same issue.


Ohio 👀👀👀

If Biden is over performing that much in Ohio, PA should be good for him, right?
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:11:19 PM permalink
SOOPOO
Member since: Feb 19, 2014
Threads: 22
Posts: 4157
Quote: ams288
Ohio 👀👀👀

If Biden is over performing that much in Ohio, PA should be good for him, right?


Not an expert... but I think the fracking comment Biden made hurts more in Pa than Ohio.
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:20:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: JCW09
My understanding is the recent elected House of Representatives of each State cast one vote each to determine their State vote
Therefore the State will likely cast its one tie breaking vote for the party of the majority of their House Members.

I don't believe there is a fall back methodology if this tie breaker ends in a 25-25 tie.
Likely goes to SCOTUS who will decide the tie goes to the runner/champion/incumbant. I am kidding, no idea what will happen.


Contingent elections (a phrase not in the constitution but in use since 1823) have occurred only three times in American history: in 1801, 1825, and 1837.

The contingent election process was modified by the 20th Amendment, which took effect in 1933. So previous contingent elections were conducted by the outgoing House, but since 1933 they should be conducted by newly elected House. Of course, no contingent elections have occurred since 1933.

You are correct that each State gets one vote (District of Columbia is not included in contingent elections). Although in the past, you are also correct that the state would vote it's majority party in the house, I would imagine since 1837 there would be riots if that is not the same as the majority popular vote for the state. I don't think it is in the constitution how each state selects their vote.

Ties simply result in another ballot.

If the House of Representatives has not chosen a president-elect in time by noon on January 20, then Kamala or Michael, which ever is the vice president-elect becomes acting president until the House selects a president.

But since the VP probably won't be selected either, Nancy Pelosi becomes acting POTUS.
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:28:02 PM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
Quote: SOOPOO
Ohio. North Carolina. Not looking good for Trump. But we can’t tell if it is predominantly Trump counties that have not reported. Seems like Florida is for Trump. But same issue.

Not so fast on Ohio! Trump is closing in and only down by 100,000 now!
Let's just hope libbie voter fraud doesn't come into play and steal the state from Trump!!

Also, the New York Times is saying that Trump is likely to win North Carolina!!

MAGA!!! 👍👍
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:39:11 PM permalink
Shrek
Member since: Aug 13, 2019
Threads: 6
Posts: 1635
Oh where, oh where have the libbies all gone?
Oh where, oh where can they beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee???

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
November 3rd, 2020 at 7:19:58 PM permalink
terapined
Member since: Aug 6, 2014
Threads: 73
Posts: 11786
PA wont be decided till tomorrow
Philadelphia County
350,000 received
They stop counting
274,000 mail ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest
Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World"
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