Electoral College Vote Predictions
November 3rd, 2020 at 12:03:59 PM permalink | |
JCW09 Member since: Aug 27, 2018 Threads: 12 Posts: 847 |
My understanding is the recent elected House of Representatives of each State cast one vote each to determine their State vote Therefore the State will likely cast its one tie breaking vote for the party of the majority of their House Members. Therefore you look at the make up of each State's House Members to figure out how the State will vote. The complication is that it is based on House Reps that were voted in based on today's results, not the current House Members. Before today, the GOP held the lead under this method 26-23 (PA is tied in same number of House Reps from each side). So the Dems will need to flip more than two states House of Reps majority to get the upper hand in case of a tie. I don't believe there is a fall back methodology if this tie breaker ends in a 25-25 tie. Likely goes to SCOTUS who will decide the tie goes to the runner/champion/incumbant. I am kidding, no idea what will happen. I am open to the above methodology being incorrect if someone else has better info. For what it is worth, I was concerned about an EC Tie months ago and posted the same. Someone somewhere said it was laughable to think an EC Tie could be the outcome. I guess we shall see, but since it has become chatter here, maybe it isn't that far fetched afterall. It will be an unmitigated disaster for the country, particularly if Trump wins under a tie breaker methodology. Let's all hope this outcome does not become reality, hope for AZ and PA going to the same candidate. Def. of Liar - "A Person Who Tells Lies" / "I lied. Deal with it" - ams288 |
November 3rd, 2020 at 12:34:27 PM permalink | |
ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12422 |
I find BangBros has much better election coverage than ToplessVegasOnline. YMMV “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
November 3rd, 2020 at 5:20:08 PM permalink | |
Shrek Member since: Aug 13, 2019 Threads: 6 Posts: 1635 | DECISION DESK CALLS FLORIDA FOR TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323795071104417793 |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:06:56 PM permalink | |
SOOPOO Member since: Feb 19, 2014 Threads: 22 Posts: 4157 | Ohio. North Carolina. Not looking good for Trump. But we can’t tell if it is predominantly Trump counties that have not reported. Seems like Florida is for Trump. But same issue. |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:08:33 PM permalink | |
ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12422 |
Ohio 👀👀👀 If Biden is over performing that much in Ohio, PA should be good for him, right? “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:11:19 PM permalink | |
SOOPOO Member since: Feb 19, 2014 Threads: 22 Posts: 4157 |
Not an expert... but I think the fracking comment Biden made hurts more in Pa than Ohio. |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:20:40 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Contingent elections (a phrase not in the constitution but in use since 1823) have occurred only three times in American history: in 1801, 1825, and 1837. The contingent election process was modified by the 20th Amendment, which took effect in 1933. So previous contingent elections were conducted by the outgoing House, but since 1933 they should be conducted by newly elected House. Of course, no contingent elections have occurred since 1933. You are correct that each State gets one vote (District of Columbia is not included in contingent elections). Although in the past, you are also correct that the state would vote it's majority party in the house, I would imagine since 1837 there would be riots if that is not the same as the majority popular vote for the state. I don't think it is in the constitution how each state selects their vote. Ties simply result in another ballot. If the House of Representatives has not chosen a president-elect in time by noon on January 20, then Kamala or Michael, which ever is the vice president-elect becomes acting president until the House selects a president. But since the VP probably won't be selected either, Nancy Pelosi becomes acting POTUS. |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:28:02 PM permalink | |
Shrek Member since: Aug 13, 2019 Threads: 6 Posts: 1635 |
Not so fast on Ohio! Trump is closing in and only down by 100,000 now! Let's just hope libbie voter fraud doesn't come into play and steal the state from Trump!! Also, the New York Times is saying that Trump is likely to win North Carolina!! MAGA!!! 👍👍 |
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:39:11 PM permalink | |
Shrek Member since: Aug 13, 2019 Threads: 6 Posts: 1635 | Oh where, oh where have the libbies all gone? Oh where, oh where can they beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee??? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 |
November 3rd, 2020 at 7:19:58 PM permalink | |
terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11786 | PA wont be decided till tomorrow Philadelphia County 350,000 received They stop counting 274,000 mail ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |