Electoral College Vote Predictions

Quote: JCW09

There is some of that, but lots of the smaller super reds numbers aren't reporting any change yet, so they are still to come.
Mercer reported (68% Red before the last dump) and I had that as a decent pick up for Trump, but Biden got the majority of them.
Strong Blue Counties have reported some but not all yet (think Philly & Delaware)
Did I hear Alleghany stopped counting for the day?
Big potential Biden pick up there (I have it at like 14K move for Biden).

Erie and Northampton were the two counties that Trump won in 2016 by the smalllest margins. He lost the other 11 counties in 2016.

Philadelphia Biden +62%
Delaware Biden +26%
Montgomery Biden +26%
Allegheny Biden +19%
Chester Biden +17%
Lackawanna Biden +8%
Dauphin Biden +8%
Monroe Biden +6%
Lehigh Biden +6%
Centre Biden +5%
Bucks Biden +3%
Erie Biden +1.0% TRUMP WIN IN 2016
Northampton Biden +0.5% TRUMP WIN IN 2016

Hillary Margins in 2016
67.2% Philadelphia
22.4% Delaware
21.5% Montgomery
16.6% Allegheny
9.5% Chester
4.7% Lehigh
3.5% Lackawanna
2.9% Dauphin
2.4% Centre
0.8% Monroe
0.8% Bucks

Northampton hasn't moved from my last check at 4PM EST, currently favors Biden by 0.5% with 95% reported.
My model doesn't expect that one to move the needle much as a 50/50 county to date.
But as I say that, Erie dropped 11,500 since this afternoon and Biden got 71.6% and it was a 50/50 county @ 4PM.
I am going to eat up my 20,000 Trump margin pretty quickly with those kinds of dumps vs. the model prediction.
I will also say the % reporting changes are not consistent with the absolute vote total movements with the dumps.
That will screw up my model significantly if it continues because it means the % reported as of this afternoon weren't accurate

Quote: JCW09

Northampton hasn't moved from my last check at 4PM EST, currently favors Biden by 0.5% with 95% reported.

So Biden is still favored in Northampton by +0.5% with >98% as of 01:30 AM EST

NY Times has a detailed county by county accounting
County Northampton
Margin Biden +0.5%
2016 margin R+3.8
Est. votes reported 168,360
Total votes >98%
Absentee 33,265
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

Quote: JCW09

My model doesn't expect that one to move the needle much as a 50/50 county to date.

I am sure that it doesn't matter, but since I live in Northampton County it is of personal interest.

Biden now ahead in GA by 1,096 votes.

What an insanely close race in that state.

Biden takes the lead in PA.

Still about ~130k votes to count, all in favorable Biden areas.

I guess my prediction of a Biden landslide has come true! (Well, not really...) I predicted 100 electoral vote victory for him, Trump finishes with 231. Biden with 307. 76. Not 100. But the PERFECT result ( if Repubs win Georgia Senate races). Repudiation of Trump. Repudiation of EVERY house Democrat expansion attempt. In 190+ races. Republican ideals win. But the man, Trump, loses. Can’t wait for the excitement of 2024. I expect EB to resume posting sometime in 2021.

Quote: SOOPOO

I guess my prediction of a Biden landslide has come true! (Well, not really...) I predicted 100 electoral vote victory for him, Trump finishes with 231. Biden with 307. 76. Not 100.

Hey, most of our righties said Donny’s 306-232 win in 2016 was a landslide. So just go by their metrics!

Amazing how this year could end up being almost exactly the reverse of 2016, EC-wise.

My god, the libbie corruption around the country is insane! Almost all of the counties in question (regardless of blue/red states) are controlled by libbies. And that's where the voter fraud is taking place!!

You gotta give the libbies credit though. They've put together an incredible voter fraud plan and they've been executing it to perfection...............so far

And you know the libbies are loving this because they will NEVER have to worry about putting together a difficult and expensive Get-out-the-vote plan ever again (which they always had to do previously) because now all they have to do is count fake mail-in ballots!!

I just pray that Trump fights on regardless of what the RINOs say. Something has to be done about this unprecedented libbie voter fraud, otherwise DEMocRATS will never lose another election ever again.

Hell, look at the stolen WA gubernatorial race in 2004 and the stolen MN senatorial race in 2008! The libbies haven't lost a gubernatorial or senatorial race in those states ever since!! And if Trump doesn't fight on, it will happen to all future presidential races as well!!

Quote: Shrek

DECISION DESK CALLS FLORIDA FOR TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323795071104417793

Decision Desk calls Pennsylvania for Biden (no one else has, though)

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324710866516905984

Quote:

Decision Desk HQ projects that
@JoeBiden
has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.

Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.

Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST

Biden’s lead expands to 4,240 votes in GA.