change in electoral college votes for 2024

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February 11th, 2021 at 3:06:22 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18203
Quote: Pacomartin


LULAC and the Mexican government successfully had "Mexican" removed from [the census questionnaire]. After 1930, there has never been another Latino group listed as a race on it. In 1970, the Hispanic origin question was first introduced on the Census long form, which is an extended questionnaire that goes out to about one in six households. And then, finally in 1980, the Hispanic identity question appears on all of the forms. It used to come after the race question. They later moved it before the race question because it was one of the most unanswered forms on the census. If you asked people their race, "I'm white or I'm black," and they would get this next question, "are you Hispanic?" They would say "I already answered this," and they would skip it. So that's why we have them the way they are and the way they're ordered.


I keep wondering about the binary "are you hispanic or latino?" on so many forms. These days it is more profitable to claim you are not white. So it will probably stay for our lifetimes.
The President is a fink.
February 13th, 2021 at 9:27:26 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Probably as everyone knows Trump lost by a razer thin percentage in three states
Percentage of Trump loss in closes three states in 2020
-0.23% Georgia 16
-0.30% Arizona 11
-0.63% Wis. 10

If Trump had pulled off a victory in these three states he would have ended up with 269 Electoral College Votes, losing the general election 269 to 271.

To win the election he would have also needed to win a 4th state like Pennsylvania which he lost by over 1%.

Of course, using the electoral count of 2024 he would not have needed an extra state. It would have been enough to win GA, AZ, and WI.



Quote: Pacomartin
Average Annual Population growth estimates for 9 out of last 10 years followed by expected change in electoral college votes for 2024
1.55% .Texas +3
1.48% .Colorado +1 ~ DEM
1.46% .Florida +2
1.43% .Arizona +1 ~ DEM
1.06% .Oregon +1 ~ DEM
1.02% .North Carolina +1
0.85% .Montana +1
-----> 0.653% projected average annual increase in US population for 2010 to 2011
+0.67% .Minnesota -1 ~ DEM
+0.64% .California -1 ~ DEM
+0.27% .Alabama -1
+0.14% .Ohio -1
+0.08% .Pennsylvania -1 ~ DEM
+0.06% .Rhode Island -1 ~ DEM
+0.03% .New York -1 ~ DEM
-0.04% .Connecticut -1 ~ DEM
-0.15% .Illinois -1 ~ DEM
-0.38% .West Virginia -1
February 14th, 2021 at 12:23:45 PM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Oct 28, 2012
Threads: 154
Posts: 5097
I don't think you mean to say you had to be white in 1929 to be a citizen, maybe you meant to say a Mexican had a better shot at it if white.

The Immigration Act of 1924 attempted to allow immigrants in on a quota basis, so that the ethnic mix of the US did not change. This was a popular idea, but when certain events occurred like the people who wanted to help save the Jews in WW2 by allowing them in but finding they were up against this law, people had to reconsider.
I'm Still Standing, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah [it's an old guy chant for me]
February 14th, 2021 at 4:02:23 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: odiousgambit
I don't think you mean to say you had to be white in 1929 to be a citizen, maybe you meant to say a Mexican had a better shot at it if white.

The Immigration Act of 1924 attempted to allow immigrants in on a quota basis, so that the ethnic mix of the US did not change. This was a popular idea, but when certain events occurred like the people who wanted to help save the Jews in WW2 by allowing them in but finding they were up against this law, people had to reconsider.


In Mexico the Cristero Revolt (1926–1929) left an estimated 250,000 dead AND 250,000 fled to the United States (mostly non-combatants). The states of Jalisco, Guanajato and Michoacán were particularly affected. In Kansas, Mexican migrants were segregated in most of the public places such as movie theaters, restaurants, schools and hospitals. The only Mexican Americans that were allowed to go to the area where white people were allowed, and where they would be treated received better treatment, were light-skinned Mexicans.

The other migrants with dark complexion were allowed only in African-Americans area .
April 26th, 2021 at 12:43:58 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12502
Quote:
BREAKING: new Census apportionment counts...

TX +2
FL +1
CO, MT, NC, OR +1

CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1

This is a slightly smaller seat shift than expected. The big winners: AL, MN and RI keep their current seats and breathe a huge sight of relief. NY avoids losing a second seat.

AZ misses out on gaining a seat. TX and FL each gain one less seat than expected.

The net effect: if the 2020 election had been held under these new counts, Biden would have won with 303 EVs (instead of 306). Under most projections, he would have won with just 302 votes, so Census result is a tiny bit better for Dems than expected.


Apparently Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th seat in the House by 89 (!) people.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
April 26th, 2021 at 5:25:40 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: ams288
Apparently Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th seat in the House by 89 (!) people.


Probably as everyone knows Trump lost by a razer thin percentage in three states
Percentage of Trump loss in closes three states in 2020
-0.23% Georgia 16
-0.30% Arizona 11
-0.63% Wis. 10

If Trump had pulled off a victory in these three states he would have ended up with 269 Electoral College Votes, losing the general election 269 to 271.


TX +2 Trump
FL +1 Trump
CO/OR -2 Trump MT/NC +2 Trump

CA/IL/MI/NY/PA +5 Trump OH/WV -2 Trump

With 2024 electoral college votes if Trump won the three closest states he would have won the election
Georgia 16
Arizona 11
Wis. 10
April 27th, 2021 at 6:59:52 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
Quote: terapined
Why should race be measured
Under race. I generally put other
I'm biracial


On my Census form, I check "other" and put human. On my Covid immunization paperwork, I wrote "decline to state" for race. I think it's none of the government's business what race I am. Regarding the Census, I oppose jerrymandering, which I think is the main reason they ask.

If anyone agrees with me that government should not make decisions based on race, I encourage you to do the same and decline to state it when asked.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
April 27th, 2021 at 7:59:41 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18203
Quote: Wizard

If anyone agrees with me that government should not make decisions based on race, I encourage you to do the same and decline to state it when asked.


Depending on my mood I sometimes put "native american" since I was born here. On something medical like the covid form in question I answer honest since that is more legit asking.
The President is a fink.
April 27th, 2021 at 8:45:20 AM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 29
Posts: 12502
Quote: AZDuffman
Depending on my mood I sometimes put "native american" since I was born here.


Thou shalt never criticize Elizabeth Warren again.
“A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman
April 28th, 2021 at 5:50:06 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Wizard
On my Census form, I check "other" and put human. On my Covid immunization paperwork, I wrote "decline to state" for race. I think it's none of the government's business what race I am.

There are probably a million people who make their living one way or another on the concept of "race" in America. if everyone behaved as cavalierly as you they will all lose their jobs.

Quote: American Association of Physical Anthropologists
The belief in 'races' as natural aspects of human biology, and the structures of inequality (racism) that emerge from such beliefs, are among the most damaging elements in the human experience both today and in the past.


Suprisingly enough the concept of "race" the way we use it today, is not really that old. Johann Friedrich Blumenbach (1752–1840) divided the human species into five races in 1779.

I think most people beliefe that our concept of "race" existed at the beginning of the Trans-Atlantic slave trade 160 year earlier.
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