Toyota calls BS to 50% battery electric vehicles by 2030

The goal of California Air Resources Board is to have 50% of the new car sales be emission free vehicles by the year 2030. That means primarily battery electric vehicles with some hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It does not include full hybrids or plug-in hybrids that run on batteries for some limited range (like 25 miles for a plug in Prius) and then run on internal combustion engines after that.

Now there are 9 states that have officially adopted the California standards. Collectively they are almost 30% of the registered vehicles in the US. So to meet those goals, you would need about 15% of your US sales to be battery EVs by 2030.

General Motors, Ford and US-Stellantis (Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Ram ) have announced 40% minimum and a desired goal of 50% by the year 2030. Honda, Nissan, and Hyundai have also signed up to 40% minimum for US sales by 2030. Volkswagen has targeted 50% of US sales to be electric by 2030. Kia has announced they think 25% is more realistic,

High end brands like Volvo, Jaguar and Land Rover may exceed 50% BEV by the year 2030.

Toyota has formally announced that they hope to sell 15% battery EVs in the US by the year 2030. Basically these are "compliance" goals. Toyota probably won't sell battery EVs in other than the 10 states that follow California standards.

Toyota currently holds a slight lead in #1 position in the US for vehicles sales (by brand, not by total company). General Motors is still #1 by company.

Brands that sold over 100,000 vehicles in the US in the first 6 months of 2021
1,090,126 Toyota
941,016 Ford
895,496 Chevrolet - General Motors
745,126 Honda
546,764 Nissan
419,991 Hyundai
407,983 Jeep - Stellantis USA
360,094 Kia
350,671 Ram - Stellantis USA
321,250 Subaru
302,526 GMC - General Motors
201,810 Volkswagen
184,703 Mazda
182,473 Mercedes-Benz
168,041 BMW
157,712 Lexus - Toyota North America
139,301 Tesla
126,304 Dodge - Stellantis USA
120,652 Audi
111,675 Buick - General Motors

Despite Toyota selling more vehicles, Chevrolet and Ford bring in more money as their average transaction price is so much higher than Toyota
$36,240 Toyota
$46,208 Chevrolet
$51,828 Ford


The question for the forum is Toyota have a better or worse chance of remaining #1 if it's target for battery electric vehicles by 2030 is so much lower than the other major brands?

That is an insane market shift to expect. Another example of liberal pols wanting to tell people how to live their lives.

GM has bet the company on an EV switch. I expect they will get the same results as the total switch to FWD in the 80s.

Quote: AZDuffman

GM has bet the company on an EV switch. I expect they will get the same results as the total switch to FWD in the 80s.

GM still had 17.3% of the domestic market in 2020 (down from 24.3% in 2006).

Quote: AZDuffman

That is an insane market shift to expect.

Toyota has also said that they will increase sales of hybrids to 55% by 2030 (in addition to 15% battery electric vehicles).

Toyota has been selling hybrids since the Prius was introduced in the year 2000.

Hybrid sales by Toyota
5,562 2000
15,556 2001
20,119 2002
24,627 2003
53,991 2004
125,886 2005
169,797 2006
257,750 2007
224,549 2008
173,655 2009
162,971 2010
150,253 2011
276,230 2012
288,126 2013 ---- early peak
254,292 2014
228,708 2015
215,879 2016
181,123 2017 - first year that less than half of hybrid sales were the Prius
153,552 2018
207,529 2019
292,584 2020 - 15.9% of Toyota sales are hybrids.

So after two decades Toyota managed to get hybrid sales up to 15.9% and they are going to reach 55% by 2030.
In 2021 Toyota introduced an SUV (Venza) and a Minivan (Sienna) that only were sold in hybrid form. Midway through the year they are up to about 25% hybrids in 2021.

There is some risk of selling only hybrid versions of a model. For instance if Toyota sells only hybrid Siennas as a minivan, customers who want a minivan, but don't want a hybrid will by a Chrysler Pacifica, Dodge Grand Caravan, Honda Odyssey, Kia Carnival, or a Kia Sedona.

But brand switching is much less likely for minivans, than it is for pickup trucks.

When they do offer a choice of hybrid or regular internal combustion engine, a very small percentage of buyers choose hybrid.
10.7% COROLLA
12.4% CAMRY
23.7% RAV4
23.9% HIGHLANDER

Toyota still does not sell hybrid forms of any engine over 2.5 liters. Primary examples are their largest SUV (the 4 Runner) or the pickup trucks (Tacoma or Tundra).

I think my point is that Toyota is predicting a huge market shift for hybrids relative to the last two decades. And Toyota is only planning for 15% battery electric vehicles by 2030. All the other companies are saying 40% at a minimum and 50% as a goal. I think corporate leaders are just saying what they think politicians want to hear.

Quote: Pacomartin

GM still had 17.3% of the domestic market in 2020 (down from 24.3% in 2006).

And down from about 45% in 1980.

Roger Smith bet the company on FWD. He demanded Bob Lutz switch to FWD so hard in a conversation that Lutz had to remind him that he did not work for GM. The results were pretty bad. Lots of quality issues as GM learned that FWD is different from RWD. Customers did not like the new FWD cars at all.

I kind of see the same thing happening with EVs. Mary Barra is betting GM on EVs to the point she is begging the government to mandate them. Same old GM.

BMW, Hyundai, and Toyota to name three are companies that seem to think EVs will be a "way station" to some kind of fuel cell.

Hyundai is selling the 2021 NEXO Fuel Cell - The world’s only dedicated hydrogen-powered SUV. So they are very big on fuel cells as the ultimate goal.

Quote: AZDuffman

BMW, Hyundai, and Toyota to name three are companies that seem to think EVs will be a "way station" to some kind of fuel cell.

Toyota has been pushing the story for over a decade that hybrid gasoline cars are the best intermediary to hydrogen fuel cells. They were publicly making that statement up until 2019 when Tesla released the Model 3. Now they say that a mix (15% by 2030 battery EVs / 55% hybrids by 2030 in the US) is still an intermediate stage before fuel cell vehicles become the powertrain of choice.

Before Toyota discontinued the Avalon, their last full size sedan, they were selling the hybrid for only $975 over the price of the internal combustion engine version. That is price difference of only 2.7%. Even at that price, less than half of customers chose the hybrid.

The other four vehicles the "extra" cost for a hybrid version is as follows.
$3,575 17.9% COROLLA
$2,225 8.9% CAMRY
$2,250 8.6% RAV4
$3,650 10.4% HIGHLANDER

In all four cases less than 25% of consumers opted for the hybrid
10.7% COROLLA - competition Honda Civic
12.4% CAMRY - competition Honda Accord
23.7% RAV4 - competition Honda CR-V
23.9% HIGHLANDER - competition Honda Pilot

Basically, the only way that I think Toyota is going to sell 55% of sales as hybrids is to stop offering the option of buying a pure internal combustion engine (ICE) version. Toyota may very well do that in California by 2030, but Toyota has to have reasonable assurances that customers won't simply switch to another brand like Honda to buy an ICE competitor.

Of course if Honda is only selling Battery electric vehicles, than Toyota can be fairly sure that customers won't turn down the Toyota hybrid and switch to Honda.

Quote: Pacomartin

Despite Toyota selling more vehicles, Chevrolet and Ford bring in more money as their average transaction price is so much higher than Toyota
$36,240 Toyota
$46,208 Chevrolet
$51,828 Ford


The question for the forum is Toyota have a better or worse chance of remaining #1 if it's target for battery electric vehicles by 2030 is so much lower than the other major brands?

(Quote clipped, relevance)


Trucks and SUV's are more expensive than sedans.

For the first half of this year:

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-u-s-june-and-first-half-2021-sales/

389,673/1,134,166 = .3436 or 34.36% (Rounded)

Of all of Toyota brand sales were of passenger cars, which generally sell for less than trucks and SUV's.

Compare to Chevrolet (First Quarter Figures):

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2021/04/gm-sales-figures-numbers-results-united-states-q1-2021/

Bolt: 9,025
Camaro: 7,089
Corvette: 6,611
Impala: 462
Malibu: 26,987
Sonic: 1,065
Spark: 11,505

(9025+7089+6611+462+26987+1065+11505)/642250 = .0977 or 9.77% (Rounded)

That would explain why Toyota has a lower average transaction price that does Chevrolet, a higher percentage of Toyota's sales are passenger cars, which are cheaper.

I think Ford only has new Mustangs in 2021, but someone can correct that. In any case, I believe the Mustangs are more expensive than even some of their crossovers.

So, my answer for whether or not Toyota will continue to be #1 sales volume is twofold, except it's not an answer, just two questions:

1.) Will consumer demand for passenger cars remain the same or not drop too steeply?

2.) Will the U.S. manufacturers meaningfully get back into producing passenger economy cars and sedans?

The signs for #2 point to no, I think. I believe Impala is nearing its end of days and maybe some other Chevy passenger cars will, as well. Their cars suck anyway, so I think they decided just to stop competing. Japan and Korea have the market dominated. I believe Ford only makes the Mustang.

So, that brings us to the first question...which probably has more to do with the broader economy within the year or two leading up to that (people with more money do not want passenger cars, unless they would prefer them anyway) as well as maybe what gas prices are doing that year and the year before...some people will turn to passenger cars if the gas prices are high and they don't want electric.

I predict there will be certain upcoming period when used internal comb. vehicles are at a huge premium compared to even now, as people decide they don't want electric cars. If you live in the upper, colder states you'd have to be nuts to want them, and I think otherwise the apparent demand for electric, such as it is, is going to fizzle quickly as manufacturers are being forced to produce cars people don't want.

The people who actually want electric have already largely taken the plunge, is my belief.

Manufacturers besides Toyota know this, but they also know if we don't get an administration that is more realistic soon, we just have to forge straight ahead and plow right into the problem, to make the politicians realize this huge mistake.

Quote: Mission146

1.) Will consumer demand for passenger cars remain the same or not drop too steeply?

2.) Will the U.S. manufacturers meaningfully get back into producing passenger economy cars and sedans?

The signs for #2 point to no, I think. I believe Impala is nearing its end of days and maybe some other Chevy passenger cars will, as well. Their cars suck anyway, so I think they decided just to stop competing. Japan and Korea have the market dominated. I believe Ford only makes the Mustang.

So, that brings us to the first question...which probably has more to do with the broader economy within the year or two leading up to that (people with more money do not want passenger cars, unless they would prefer them anyway) as well as maybe what gas prices are doing that year and the year before...some people will turn to passenger cars if the gas prices are high and they don't want electric.

They kind of are producing passenger cars, just calling them "crossovers" or such. Look at the Hyundai Kona as an example. It is a glorified hatchback. Just cranked up on its suspension. I do not expect sedans to come back in a big way for a simple reason. A sedan owner who switches to a hatch, wagon, or SUV rarely wants to switch back. They are just a better vehicle. But most do not need or want a "truck" per se. Americans still consider any hatchback an "econobox." So you get the smallest of today's SUVs. Or the BMW which has a hatch-type back but they call a SUV.

Tesla likes to think some of their vehicles are SUVs but they are glorified hatchbacks. It is all marketing.

Quote: AZDuffman

They kind of are producing passenger cars, just calling them "crossovers" or such. Look at the Hyundai Kona as an example. It is a glorified hatchback. Just cranked up on its suspension. I do not expect sedans to come back in a big way for a simple reason. A sedan owner who switches to a hatch, wagon, or SUV rarely wants to switch back. They are just a better vehicle. But most do not need or want a "truck" per se. Americans still consider any hatchback an "econobox." So you get the smallest of today's SUVs. Or the BMW which has a hatch-type back but they call a SUV.

Tesla likes to think some of their vehicles are SUVs but they are glorified hatchbacks. It is all marketing.

Okay, you could also look at it as a higher percentage of Ford and Chevy sales are of expensive trucks and also Commercial vans, when compared to Toyota. For example, the Chevy Silverado is Chevy's #1 model in sales volume, by a mile. It's almost double that of the Equinox, which is considered a mid-sized crossover, and is not what I mean when I talk about passenger cars. If you look at the other big volume Chevy vehicles, they are usually trucks or unmistakably SUV's.

In fact, GM sold more Silverados as Toyota did trucks, and it's an absolute blowout when you add in other Chevy Truck sales. (June compared to June, 2021).

In the meantime, Toyota also has crossover vehicles...and it's not even that they don't sell a lot of them; (although these sales, June 2021, are beaten by the Equinox alone) it's just that traditional cars and sedans make up a big percentage of their sales. Lots of Corollas and lots of Camrys.

I agree with you that those who switch rarely switch back, but at the same time, I think there is a non-zero market segment who legitimately prefer sedans (I'm one of them) and wouldn't want to switch in the first place. I will switch, sooner or later, but that won't be until I reach the point that my knees just aren't having getting in and out of the thing anymore. I've driven both and prefer driving sedans by a mile.

Anyway, you do make a good point. Consumer trends are getting away from sedans, in general, but Toyota is doing a good job of scooping up what's left of that market and I think we see this reflected, at least, in total volume. That's the market segment, by volume, where they are winning.

Winning big. They sold almost as many in a month as GM sold in a quarter. It's not even close.

Huyndai doesn't do as much overall volume, but the distribution of their volume:

https://www.hyundainews.com/en-us/releases/3330

Looks basically similar to Toyota with the Accent, Elantra and Sonata combining for 33.67% (Rounded) of their total volume.

So, whether you call it getting a slice of the sedan market, or mopping up what is left of a dying market...that's what Toyota and Huyndai are doing and, in the case of Toyota, is the clearly identifiable reason why they currently lead in sales volume.

Thus, I don't know that electric is relevant to anything...or, at least hasn't been proven yet. I think the most relevant question is how will sedan demand look then, compared to now and will Toyota still be getting a large slice of that demand?

Quote: Mission146

I agree with you that those who switch rarely switch back, but at the same time, I think there is a non-zero market segment who legitimately prefer sedans (I'm one of them) and wouldn't want to switch in the first place. I will switch, sooner or later, but that won't be until I reach the point that my knees just aren't having getting in and out of the thing anymore. I've driven both and prefer driving sedans by a mile.

There are a few reasons to prefer a sedan. It is more formal looking if you have to drive around or just see clients. The trunk offers more security than a hatch or SUV. Probably rides better. What styling is left in cars they have it where a hatch or SUV does not so much.

Quote:

Anyway, you do make a good point. Consumer trends are getting away from sedans, in general, but Toyota is doing a good job of scooping up what's left of that market and I think we see this reflected, at least, in total volume. That's the market segment, by volume, where they are winning.

I switched in 2005. Few years later I am at Christmas at my sister's place with her in-laws there and her father-in-law said how he still liked his sedan when I mentioned I would never go back. I will only get a sedan if it is a huge deal or/and a job requires it. I explained why but he said he was keeping his sedan. Well, about 8 years later he ends up with a mid-size hatch!

When my dad died my mother drove his SUV because she had some kind of medical thing needed the easier in and out. A month later I was listing her sedan on craigslist.