Toyota calls BS to 50% battery electric vehicles by 2030

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September 11th, 2021 at 6:06:42 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Pacomartin
According to wiki, Roger Smith was chair of General Motors Corporation from 1981 to 1990 during which time GM's share of the U.S. market fell from 46% to 35%. The wiki article does not talk about RWD or FWD. Perhaps the article should be updated


The GM collapse of the 1980s was due to more than FWD. But Smith did bet the farm on it. And there were lots of growing pains. Same "the end is near" thinking. With all the FWD one of the best sellers was the Cutlass Supreme. When they pulled their larger RWD cars and replaced them with FWD sales went south.I can easily see the same happening with an EV switch.


Quote:
Toyota executives are saying what a lot of common people are saying. Electric cars are fine for owners of Volvos, Mercedes, Jaguars, Land Rovers, and a select group of non luxury car brands. But killing the internal combustion engine in 15 years is not going to happen on pure market forces.


YES YES YES and YES! Every last time I hear about how great EVs are it is from someone who has a nice, suburban home with a 2 car garage in a warm city. Most people do not have this. When Elon Musk showed that auto-battery changer some people ooohed and ahhed. More thoughtful people mentioned how is that going to work when the car is full of crud from winter driving. As to chargers, how many people are going to like having to fool with plugging in when it is raining or below freezing for weeks. Ever have to deal with things that cold for that long? Not fun.
The President is a fink.
September 11th, 2021 at 11:11:13 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Almost a million people run out of gas every year. I'm willing to bet only 1% of them ran out of gas because of something completely unpreventable. The unpreventable cases are people who enter the desert with a full tank of gas, drive into a ravine where there is no cellular signal, and have to run the air conditioner until someone finds them. Most of the time it is because people are stupid and careless. They also try and push it.

Of course when you run out of gas, you have to somehow get a 30 pound (or less) full can to your car.


Now, we will have to figure out how to get a 3000 lb car to someplace where it can be charged. The alternative is to have somone deliver a trailer with a full tank of gasoline and let you drive to the nearest charging station.



Toyota sells about 793 Highlanders per day starting at $35,085
Roughly 190 of them are sold with the hybrid option starting at $38,735 or an additional $3,650

2021 Toyota Highlander - 3.5 Liter, 6 cyl, Automatic (S8) MSRP: $35,085 - $47,240, EPA 43 gallons per 1000 miles
2021 Toyota Highlander Hybrid -2.5 Liter, 4 cyl, Automatic (AV-S6) MSRP: $38,735 - $48,690, EPA 28 gallons 1000 miles

At $3 per gallon you will save $45 per 1000 miles, or return the up front $3,650 after about 80,000 miles of driving.
At $4 per gallon you will save $60 per 1000 miles, or return the up front $3,650 after about 60,000 miles of driving.

It would cost about $1 million to do an experiment and eliminate the cost differential for one day (unannounced) . Salesman would be instructed not to do a hard sell, but to only tell the customer that the hybrid will reduce gasoline burn rate by 15 gallons per 1000 miles of driving.

I'm willing to bet hybrid sales don't go over 50% even for free. Most people don't want to deal with the more expensive batteries or the reduced horsepower.

If it was that easy GM wouldn't have stopped selling the three-cylinder engine for twenty years. Or the 78 hp Mitsubushi Mirage (MSRP: From $14,295) would sell substantially more than 500 vehicles per week .

It would be a good data point for politicians who think that that people are going to pony up thousands of dollars in purchasing cost and are going to pay an electrician thousands more to rewire their house.
September 11th, 2021 at 12:37:23 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: Pacomartin
Almost a million people run out of gas every year. I'm willing to bet only 1% of them ran out of gas because of something completely unpreventable.
.


My business partner ran out of gas in the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge in 1977. He was the cheapest a-hole I have ever known. He would never put more than $3 worth of gas in the car. The bridge attendant brought us one gallon of gas and charged us $10 for it. Gas at the time was $0.85 a gallon. My partner screamed bloody murder the attendant told him he was a freaking moron to his face three or four times and said take the gas or the car getting towed. If I had stayed with that guy I swear I would have killed him eventually. I had to get away. He talked about that $10 for months afterwards.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
September 11th, 2021 at 1:31:19 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 51
Posts: 4944
Quote: Evenbob
My business partner ran out of gas in the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge in 1977. He was the cheapest a-hole I have ever known. He would never put more than $3 worth of gas in the car. The bridge attendant brought us one gallon of gas and charged us $10 for it. Gas at the time was $0.85 a gallon. My partner screamed bloody murder the attendant told him he was a freaking moron to his face three or four times and said take the gas or the car getting towed. If I had stayed with that guy I swear I would have killed him eventually. I had to get away. He talked about that $10 for months afterwards.


If I was stupid enough tor un out of gas I would gladly pay $50 for a gallon if that would get me to the gas station.
At my age a Life In Prison sentence is not much of a detrrent.
September 11th, 2021 at 5:40:29 PM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Oct 28, 2012
Threads: 154
Posts: 5055
I've been told that the situation where you can run out of gas is where multiple people operate the same vehicle. The more using the same car, the more the motive is to not put some in just so the next guy has plenty of gas. So anybody hopping into the car and forgetting to check is in big trouble.

I've never much had that situation, maybe a family with a lot of drivers, or a small company with a shared vehicle, and I've never run out of gas, though sometimes coming close.
I'm Still Standing, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah [it's an old guy chant for me]
September 11th, 2021 at 6:12:37 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: odiousgambit
I've been told that the situation where you can run out of gas is where multiple people operate the same vehicle. .


When I had the cab company the drivers had to buy their own gas at the end of the shift and there was constant problems with them not filling up the tank. Some drivers refused to top it off and only put in enough gas so the gauge was just touching on full. These were all Chevy's and you can't do that with a Chevy. The gauge may be on full wish you but could still put in three or four more gallons usually. We even had a couple of fist fights over it.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
September 12th, 2021 at 4:11:20 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
What vehicle brands are more popular in California than in the rest of the nation? I checked the database and came up with the following list (ranked by popularity in California).
  1. Toyota 17.2% > 13.1%
  2. Honda 11.5% > 9.0%
  3. Tesla 4.4% > 1.7%
  4. Subaru 4.2% > 3.9%
  5. Mercedes 3.9% > 2.2%
  6. BMW 3.4% > 2.0%
  7. Lexus 3.2% > 1.9%
  8. Mazda 2.4% > 2.2%
  9. Audi 2.1% > 1.5%
  10. Dodge 1.6% > 1.5%
  11. Land Rover 0.9% > 0.5%
  12. Porsche 0.8% > 0.4%
  13. Infiniti 0.6% > 0.4%
  14. MINI 0.3% > 0.2%
  15. Jaguar 0.2% > 0.1%
  16. Alfa Romeo 0.2% > 0.1%
  17. Maserati 0.1% > 0.0%
  18. FIAT 0.0% > 0.0%


That said, the same five brands constitute half of California registrations in 2020, and half of new vehicle sales in 2021 nationwide.

California % - Nationwide % sales
17.2% Toyota 13.1%
11.5% Honda 9.0%
8.9% Ford 11.3%
7.8% Chevrolet 10.8%
4.8% Nissan 6.6%
50.1% Total of five 50.7%


While virtually every brand has announced a goal of selling at least 40% of new vehicles as battery electric vehicles by the year 2030, Toyota (and hence also Subaru) has announced the intention of selling 15% of new cars sales in the United Statesas battery electric vehicles by the year 2030. Toyota expects to sell a higher percentage in global sales as certainly EVs will be more in demand in Europe and Asia.

Toyota's goal is to sell 55% of new car sales in the US as full hybrids or plug in hybrids by the year 2030 with the final 30% being pure internal combustion engine vehicles. So far in first half of 2021, Toyota has managed to sell 24% of vehicles as hybrids, but it has yet to offer a hybrid version of the larger SUV, the 4Runner, or it's pickup trucks, Tacoma and Tundra. It also does not sell a hybrid version of it's smallest SUV, the CH-R, despite selling a hybrid version in Europe.

California sales in the year 2020
Toyota Prius 15,126 - ONLY AVAILABLE AS HYBRID
Toyota Camry 56,301
Toyota Corolla 43,467
Toyota RAV4 57,449
Toyota Highlander 22,282

In order to achieve those high hybrid sales numbers, Toyota will eventually have to offer the Camry, Corolla, RAV4, and Highlander only as hybrid models in California. Right now they won't do it since they would be afraid that consumers will simply switch to another brand if they don't want a hybrid. But as options begin to dwindle, Toyota will have to restrict choices.
September 12th, 2021 at 10:01:07 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Now the House Ways and Means Committee has approved a new version of the EV incentive program as part of their $3.5 trillion social spending bill. The incentives are frankly, "massive".

Here are the main changes:

Remove the 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer cap
Keep the $7,500 incentive for new electric cars for 5 years
Make the $7,500 incentive a point-of-sale discount instead of tax credit
EVs with battery pack smaller than 40 kWh are limited to a $4,000 incentive
Add an additional $4,500 for EV assembled at union factories
Add another $500 for EVs using battery packs with 50% of components (including cells) are made in the US
After the first 5 years, the $7,500 becomes only for US-made electric vehicles and it applies for another 5 years.

Price limits on the EVs eligible for the incentives:
Sedans under $55,000
SUVs under $69,000
Pickup trucks under $74,000
Vans under $54,000
They are also introducing caps on income to get access to the incentives, but they are fairly high at an adjusted gross income of up to $400,000 for individuals and up to $800,000 for joint filers.

As usual, these terms could change as the bill goes through the legislative process.
December 29th, 2021 at 3:20:31 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569


Toyota has a new take on hydrogen vehicles. Instead of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, these are hydrogen combustion engines.

The good new is that they actually make a sound, unlike electric vehicles.

More importantly,
Toyota's present hydrogen vehicle, the Mirai (MSRP: starting at $49,500) with 182 hp has a range of 402 miles.
The 2022 battery-only Lucid Air (MSRP: starting at $77,400) with 480 hp has a range of 406 miles
The 2022 Chevrolet Spark (MSRP: starting at $13,600) with 98 hp has a range of 297 miles (which isn't bad for the least expensive car sold in America)

The obvious attraction of hydrogen vehicles is certainly not the horsepower, but that on an out of town trip you will someday be able to drive a zero emission vehicle and refuel like a gasoline engine instead of time consuming process of recharging.

There are currently 45 hydrogen stations in California, 9 are in construction, 36 in permitting, and 16 more proposed: (May 5, 2021)
California Energy Commission estimates that as of 2020 there are 10,294 gasoline refueling stations in the state.

Right now hydrogen fuel is the equivalent of $16 a gallon gasoline. So, like batteries, time will tell. But unlike battery vehicles, they probably will never go really fast.
December 30th, 2021 at 4:59:59 AM permalink
gamerfreak
Member since: Feb 19, 2018
Threads: 4
Posts: 527
No thanks.

There’s no shortage of videos of CNG/hydrogen cars exploding out of nowhere.
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