General Election 2024

Quote: odiousgambit

...these are times 10^6 ? six more zeroes in other words?

Yes, it is traditional since WWII to talk about deficity numbers in billions of dollars.

The first federal outlay over a trillion dollars was in 1987 under President Reagan which as I remember was shocking at the time. President Reagan also saw the first deficits over $100 billion. While running against Reagan for the Presidential nomination in 1980, George H. W. Bush had derided Reaganomics as "voodoo economics".

Quote: DRich

Explain how it would be the end f the USA. Other countries exist and they don't control the financial systems.

The USA is held together by the USD and its supremacy as the de facto world currency. So how would it be the end of the USA?

First, no more oil imports. At the least a very severe decline. Oil is traded in USD after Nixon made a deal with KSA. If someone tries to sell oil in other than USD there are very severe consequences. The USA controls this sort of like a wiseguy would control sports betting in the neighborhood. You deal thru them or else. Saddam Hussein tried to step out of that system, look what happened. Only one example.

Short term there would be major shortages. I am not talking like under Biden and $5 gas. I am talking 1973/79 NO GAS available at any price, but even worse than then. Figure a 10%+ decline in GDP as so much that needs to move no longer can.

Then look at our addiction to cheap, imported junk goods. Think the china virus caused supply chain disruption? I am talking supply chain collapse. Don't count on Asia selling us computer chips if we are not a reserve currency. Research how many they sell to Venezuela and other countries with worthless currencies.

We would have enough computer power to use with what we have for a period of time. But within a year laptops and smart phones would start needing replaced, but little on the shelves to replace them. Now, with there so little gas to get around you would not believe how many people cannot read a map anymore, if you can find maps.

This could be a book, but one more big thing. I estimate that about 30% or so of the USA population simply cannot survive without their government check. Some are seniors on SS. Some are some level of disabled. Others have made themselves wards of the government. USD collapses, these people are on the street.

Now, all of this happens and the USA cannot be held together. States like CA, TX, and FL would very quickly decide to go their own way. Much of the rest becomes Mexico without the hot weather. The military would end up like Russia in the 1990s, no money to use it and China buying lots of it up to use as lawn ornaments on their military bases.

Meanwhile, the international system starts falling apart. Like the 30% of USA citizens who cannot make it on their own, there are many countries that are just as hooked. The USA does much in poorer countries to help keep things going. If you know anyone int he military you have probably heard a story. But here is one. Working auto loans I get a call, some guy probably Army but I forget exactly. Calling from Africa I forget where, but a place you had no idea existed much less that we were there. Some kind of humanitarian mission. Or keep in mind that if not for GWB, AIDS might have some African nations totally wiped out by now.

This all happens because the USD reigns supreme. It collapses the USA collapses then the world collapses. But that is another chapter.

Quote: AZDuffman

The USA is held together by the USD and its supremacy as the de facto world currency. So how would it be the end of the USA?

First, no more oil imports. At the least a very severe decline. Oil is traded in USD after Nixon made a deal with KSA. If someone tries to sell oil in other than USD there are very severe consequences. The USA controls this sort of like a wiseguy would control sports betting in the neighborhood. You deal thru them or else. Saddam Hussein tried to step out of that system, look what happened. Only one example.

I think your imagination is large. We could just as easily buy oil in rubles if necessary. Actually, right now there is quite a discount if buying oil in rubles.

Quote: DRich

I think your imagination is large. We could just as easily buy oil in rubles if necessary. Actually, right now there is quite a discount if buying oil in rubles.

And where do we get the Rubles?

Quote: AZDuffman

And where do we get the Rubles?

Mar-a-Lago.

Quote: AZDuffman

And where do we get the Rubles?

You buy them with dollars. Just because we defaulted on debt does not mean the dollars are worthless. Although they will be worth less than before.

Defaulting on debt does not make your currency worthless, just worth less than before.

Quote: DRich

You buy them with dollars. Just because we defaulted on debt does not mean the dollars are worthless. Although they will be worth less than before.

Defaulting on debt does not make your currency worthless, just worth less than before.

You assume someone will take the rubles for dollars. When you default your currency crashes. Nobody will want it.

Quote: ams288

lol

As 8/1, FiveThirtyEight (Nate SIlver's site) has average poll of the generic ballot is GOP +0.3%.
FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot Poll
You might as well quote Rasmussen's Poll showing GOP +5 if you want to lie about reality.

Quote: JCW09

Quote: ams288

lol

As 8/1, FiveThirtyEight (Nate SIlver's site) has average poll of the generic ballot is GOP +0.3%.
FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot Poll
You might as well quote Rasmussen's Poll showing GOP +5 if you want to lie about reality.

Down from over 2+% pre-Dobbs.

That plus Donny’s insane Senate endorsements, red wave starting to look like a red puddle.

Quote: AZDuffman

You assume someone will take the rubles for dollars. When you default your currency crashes. Nobody will want it.

Not true at all. Someone will want it just at a lower valuation.

Instead of it being 124 rubles for a dollar it may be 124 dollars for a ruble.