Is it better to drown than to never have gone to sea?

We envy those whose lives are of greater scope and daring than ours. The "yachties" who spend their time aboard luxury yachts or touring exotics ports of call frequented by the rich and famous. The Cruisers who forsake home ownership and buy a boat to spend fifteen or twenty years cruising and raising their children in exotic settings. Those who do Gap Years in Canada or Australia often working at resorts or doing walking tours.

Adventure, romance, excitement ... and death by drowning?

What happened to S/V Nina? Classic racing schooner stayed in New Zealand to get an engine repaired or a new engine installed. Delayed sailing about five weeks it seems. Sailed extreme late May probably sank June 3rd or 4th. Alarm not raised until several weeks later when overdue at Newcastle, Australia.

The usual doubts: would she head north to Lord Howe Island and then south to Newcastle? Or try a straight run? An experienced and trusted WX briefer discussed the gales and the owner agreed that he would probably be dancing with two out of three of them and maybe all three. It seems the first one, the weakest, got him.

Persons on Board (its no longer Souls on Board, you know).
David Dyche, Owner (Had retired at age 38 after owning his own diving business in Florida).
Rosemary Dyche, Wife of Owner
David Dyche, Son (known officially as David Dyche IV) About to start college in the USA.
Evi Nesmeth, Friend and Navigator, Aged 73 Retired CU professor. Author definitive text on Unix administration. Expert on nautical technology according to some sources.
Dannielle Wright, aged various reported as 18 and 19, Lafayete, Louisianna model and photography student. Wanted to go to Australia for the Summer and get out of Louisiana for awhile. Many photos show an aquatic theme or as some Siren.... if there be any happiness in Davy Jones Locker at all, she will have it, but its hard to look at an 18 year old girl's photograph as she as ecstatic in a nightclub with a serious boyfriend and realize she is now dead. Her text to boyfriend on May 21 mentioned a ten or twelve day voyage indicating a probable straight run to Newcastle but this was before the WX briefing and she is a deckhand and family friend, not the Navigator.
A British vagabond, 35, enroute to Australia to return to the UK and continue his Green Party blogging signed on as Deckhand.

Okay, May is preferred to June in the Tasman. It took them time to get the engine work completed. It took them time to work their way northward and then out to sea. After that what did the winds and currents do? Last WX suggestion was "Head South".

EPIRB beacon had to be hand activated, was not automatic. Signal would be received only if device set free of the hull and not submerged.
Spot Beacon. Can send position reports but only by hand.

Do people who sail without all the latest doodads invite misadventure. Or are the safest sailors those who know they have no life rafts aboard and therefore have to be alert at all times. Obviously its a big of an exaggeration either way, but ... .

Several P3 Orion searches but nobody really knew where to look.
A few coastal wreckage searches but again, which coast?
From msn.com:
Deckhand, and family friend, 19 year old Danielle Wright commented on May 21st that it would be a 10-12 day voyage, so it was planned as a straight run with none of the usual northward deviation for Lord Howe Island. It was late in the season and the Nina knew she was facing three gales and would probably "dance with two of them". It seems however that the first dance may have been a difficult one. Remember there had been no shakedown cruise to determine the tightness of the seals on the newly installed engine that had been the cause of their five week delay. A lack of response to WX reports and a garbled phone call to the boat owner's mother in Florida are now being viewed with alarm but that shows there was good reason to have been alarmed more promptly. Remember these were good navigators and excellent sailors who would press onward if able. Their lack of all the electronic goodies is actually a sign of self reliance on good skills. Bad enough for 73 year old professor, but far worse for 19 year old model and photography student.

Final Bulletin including PredictWind charts.

Should the WX guy have been more alert to the silence? Should the mother have been more concerned with the garbled call?
Its clear June 3 or 4 was a day of some trouble and perhaps catastrophic loss since spot beacon and sat phone were never activate after that.

Why the delay. What the lack of action when no further weather briefings were requested. Why did nobody notice the spot beacon was inactive. Why didn't anyone notice the lack of satellite calls. I know during a storm they can't call but it was almost two weeks before anyone noticed something might be amiss.

Ricky Wright, Lafayette Louisiana real estate broker and father to Deckhand Danielle Wright reports that a Sat Phone was used to send a text message to a WX briefer after the second storm indicating studding sails damaged and ship making four knots. Report is that for unknown reason text message to NZ briefer was not immediately delivered by phone carrier.

With search areas being shifted about or searches cancelled, it seems this last bit of news is conveniently timed but has not been confirmed.

Danielle Wright is deckhand and would not have a Sat Phone just ordinary cell phone so how would the father learn of this?

Quote: Fleastiff

Ricky Wright, Lafayette Louisiana real estate broker and father to Deckhand Danielle Wright reports that a Sat Phone was used to send a text message...

I am confused on this timeline. The father gets a text message sent on 4 June. It is now 3 July. Based on this delayed text, the father said he believes the yacht could arrive in Australia within the next five to seven days.

While we assume that a father remains forever optimistic, it doesn't sound very convincing to me.

Quote: Pacomartin

I am confused on this timeline.

Yes, its been difficult dealing with time zone changes.
As with so many voyages, by the time there is concern, it may already be too late.

Timeline:
Departure from NZ delayed by need for new engine installation which will take five weeks putting them into gale season for Tasman Sea.
May 28th appears to be formal departure but no one knows intended track.
June 3rd SatPhone from Nina to trusted WX briefer seeking advice on how to maneuver to avoid weather.
WX Briefer suggests Turn South.
June 4th: Sat Phone TEXTS to WX Briefer. Nina survived storm with damage to sails. Nina making four knots headway. THIS IS THE SENT BUT NOT RECEIVED MESSAGE.

>The father gets a text message sent on 4 June. It is now 3 July.
No. Father has been dealing with USA based carriers who had refused to release content of call.
> Based on this delayed text, the father said he believes the yacht could arrive in Australia within the next five to seven days.
Father at all times believed Nina would soldier on despite any damage and not make any attempt to return to NZ.

>While we assume that a father remains forever optimistic, it doesn't sound very convincing to me.
I understand that it is not fully re-assuring since even with call, vessel is still overdue.

Be advised. Father is respected real estate broker and major contributor to and supporter of various church and charity entities. He is not likely to concoct a message to create false hopes or alter search pattern locations. It is merely that even two days of making substantial headway alters the search areas since aerial searches have been based on assumption that Nina, if still afloat, was adrift on June 3rd.

Trouble is that even with the finally released text message the ship is still overdue and text message does not negate possibility of underwater damage to seals and fittings of engine installation.

Quote: Fleastiff

Trouble is that even with the finally released text message the ship is still overdue and text message does not negate possibility of underwater damage to seals and fittings of engine installation.

Since the texted but delayed message said: Making four knots headway, will send updated info at six pm, we can assume that slow progress was made but that the crew were unable to send an update. Most likely scenario is that the boat shipped so much water as to render all electronics inoperable, this would make remaining afloat much longer less likely. No engine, no pumps but a hand operated wobble pump ... in a gale? All it did was change the start point for a search.

NOTE: They were proceeding NW but from where? And to go from shredded sails to bare poles indicates a worsening condition, the update promised for six hours later never materialized yet the computer model for winds shows they could well have been blown south considerably. My computer does not resolve the PredictWind.com feature provided by SailWorld.

Prior to the voyage Danielle was photographed in black reaching for the surface and expelling a bubble of air ... it was actually quite a beautiful photo, but I wonder what the photrapher thinks of it now. Still, many of her photos were aquatic and if there be any happiness at all Davey Jones' Locker, she will have it.

Quote: Fleastiff

Prior to the voyage Danielle was photographed in black reaching for the surface and expelling a bubble of air ... it was actually quite a beautiful photo, but I wonder what the photographer thinks of it now. Still, many of her photos were aquatic and if there be any happiness at all in Davey Jones' Locker, she will have it as she was quite the aquatic creature and loved exploring The Grenadines.

Prior to the voyage David III told his mother that he thought there would be a major change in his life and that his sailing days would come to an end with the completion of this voyage.

Reasons its so hard:
If they took to a life raft, currents not winds are important.
If they are dismasted, capsized, low in the water... then its winds, not currents that are important.
If they are underway with jury rigged sails then winds are important.
It could be simply an electrical failure which prevents signaling even via the spot beacon.

However, after all the searching, even the mother is now resigned to the fact that her son was probably lost at sea.

Garboards are often the first to go and that is major, recent engine installation is a concern but he did the work himself and so it should be of high quality.

No bar gives out almost 200 shots of free rum on a whim. The Fort Lauderdale bar that issued the grog and tolled eight bells as the crew's names were called out certainly felt that Lost At Sea was a sound decision. The bar gets a very nautical crowd and the residents of two nearby Crew Houses donned their dress uniforms and joined in the activities. They all know what the Tasman Sea is like at this time of the year and how difficult it is to search a choppy sea.

Quote: Fleastiff

No bar gives out almost 200 shots of free rum on a whim. The Fort Lauderdale bar that issued the grog and tolled eight bells as the crew's names were called out certainly felt that Lost At Sea was a sound decision. The bar gets a very nautical crowd and the residents of two nearby Crew Houses donned their dress uniforms and joined in the activities. They all know what the Tasman Sea is like at this time of the year and how difficult it is to search a choppy sea.

We force the Amish to affix bright orange triangles to their slow, dark buggies... can't we force yachtsmen to have standard electronics aboard? AIS system, an automatic EPIRB rather than a manual one, Personal Beacons. These things lower the cost of a search by providing pin point locations.

All those yachtie types from the Crew Houses that populate the nautical bars in Fort Lauderdale are required to take a course in marine electronics so as to deal with all the latest doodads. If some rich guy leases a yacht at forty-three grand a week, he wants the TV remote and computer working and also the AIS even though he may not know for sure what an AIS is exactly.

Did an 18 year old photography model just learning about alcohol and boys and dance clubs know enough about marine electronics to realize the risk she was taking boarding a vessel that was the electronic equivalent of a horse and buggy on a freeway? Did she know enough about yachts to realize that one that had been in the water for over three years might have loose planks?

NZ authorities just filed a detention order against a yacht over some minor mechanical problem... they want to avoid bad publicity. Bureacrats!!