California urban traffic jam in the future when electric system breaks down and gasoline cars are ba

Quote: Gandler

Nuclear.


100% clean, and very effective. And, very safe. We should be building nuclear plants as quickly as possible.

But they aren't being built, the exact opposite they are being shut down. Even Germany with all their energy problems because of Ukraine war is shutting down a nuclear plant for political reasons.

Quote: Gandler

Nuclear. 100% clean, and very effective. And, very safe. We should be building nuclear plants as quickly as possible.

I agree we need to take a close look at nuclear again, but let's not build more plants til the feds come up with a permanent depository for ALL of the currently stored and future generated nuclear waste.

Hello, Yucca mtn.

Quote: missedhervee

I hope I am incorrect, but please explain where all the needed energy, "clean" engergy, will come from.

We're talking a huge leap in demand and no viable plan to supply same.

Wind and solar won't be enough: back to those nasty fossil fuels.

Howdy, Big Coal...

Japan has returned to coal to replace the enery lost when they shut down their nuclear generators after the Fukushima nuclear disaster - 11 March 2011. They are building 22 new coal plants with an aggregate amount of greenhouse gases more than all the vehicles puchased in the US for one year.

California just tripled their proposed plans for "offshore wind" which is much more reliable than wind generated electricity from onshore. But California already has the most expensive electricit in the West, and this plan will not be cheap.

No matter how much electricity you generate from renewables the problem is always going to be that 7% of the year consisting of 4PM-9PM for four monhs out of the year. Solar and wind power are well past their peak production, but demand is still high, especially during heat waves. So either we have an unpecedented explosion of batteries or we rely on a steady "base load" generators (i.e. natural gas and nuclear).

California has only built two new natural gas generating plants since 2013 (both in San Diego county). San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) in San Diego was shut down in 2012 and retired in 2013. California.

Diablo Canyon, operating the last two nuclear generators in California will shut down in 2025. In October 2021 the California Energy Commission and CAISO stated that the state may have summer blackouts in future years as a result of Diablo's closure coinciding with the shutdown of four natural gas plants of 3.7GW total capacity, and inability to rely on imported electricity during West-wide heat waves. (The reduction of importable electricity is due to both the decades-long drought reducing hydroelectric capacity, and the closing of coal plants.)

%CA In-State	2021 Fuel type	California In-State Generation (GWh)
50.2%	Natural Gas	97,431
8.5%	Nuclear	16,477
6.2%	Large Hydro	12,036
0.2%	Coal	303
0.2%	Other (Waste Heat/Petroleum Coke)	382
0.0%	Oil	37
0.0%	Unspecified	0
65.2%	Total Thermal and Non-Renewables	126,666
34.8%	Total Renewables	67,461
17.1%	Solar	33,260
7.8%	Wind	15,173
2.8%	Biomass	5,381
5.7%	Geothermal	11,116
1.3%	Small Hydro	2,531
100.0%		194,127
90.0%	Norwegian Hydropower 2020	136,400

Norway has roughly 1/8 of the population of California and because of the 1600 hydroelectric power plants has no need to rely on fossil fuels. California has so far declared "large hydroelectric" (i.e. opened before 1970) a non-renewable which means those power plants must be shut down by 2045 unless they are reclassified.

Wow, good info / analysis.

Looks like the EV'ers will be driving...off of a cliff.

Progressives cannot have EV's, clean air, and clean power too, it just is too early: wean into EV's slowly, not running headlong like lemmings.

Quote: missedhervee

Wow, good info / analysis.

Looks like the EV'ers will be driving...off of a cliff.

Progressives cannot have EV's, clean air, and clean power too, it just is too early: wean into EV's slowly, not running headlong like lemmings.

I have suggested to some people that maybe California should consider making a choice between switching to 100% carbon emission free electricity and 100% electric vehicles. To try and accomplish them both simultaneously without skyrocketing electric rates was too much to ask for.


While it is true that California produces clean electricity relative to the rest of the nation, it turns out hey are a distant second place behind Upstate New York. UPNY doesn't have any fantastic program in renewables, but they use primarily Nuclear and Hydroelectric and their emission rate is about half that of California.

UP NY	Yr 2020	Calif
34.9%	Hydro	16.1%
32.2%	Nuclear	7.9%
25.0%	Gas	42.3%
5.1%	Wind	7.0%
1.9%	Biomass	2.8%
0.5%	Coal	3.8%
0.4%	Solar	15.3%
0.1%	Oil	0.0%
0.0%	Other Fossil	0.7%
0.0%	Geo- thermal	3.8%

https://www.terrapower.com/people/bill-gates/

Quote: missedhervee

Wow, good info / analysis.

Looks like the EV'ers will be driving...off of a cliff.

Progressives cannot have EV's, clean air, and clean power too, it just is too early: wean into EV's slowly, not running headlong like lemmings.

They do not live in a real world. When I was in pest control I remember hearing of some young liberal girl saying we needed to stop using pesticides on our food. When pushed for an answer to how we would avoid the food being eaten by pests she just said she "knew we could do it without pesticides." No "how" but she just "knew" it could be done. The same thing cropped up all the time, quit using them but still keep the bugs away.

Issue after issue the same thing happens. Bail is "mean" or "racist" so get rid of it. But make sure crime stays low! Somehow businesses can pay far higher wages. How? They just can!

Liberals do not live in reality.

Quote: AZDuffman

Liberals do not live in reality.

I looks like Gavin Newsom realized tha widespread blackouts during his upcoming term as Governor of California (he should have no trouble being re-elected his November) will seriously hurt his political future. He wants Pacific Gas & Electric to re-apply for an extension of their permit to operate Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant with its two generators beyond their initial 40 years of operation (expires in 2024 & 2025). Newsom's 2nd term will run to January 2027 and he may not run for POTUS unil 2028.

California's SB 100 would accelerate the state’s current Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) program to 50% by 2025 and 60% by 2030. In addition, SB 100 sets a 100% clean, zero carbon, and renewable energy policy for California’s electricity system by 2045. It further requires state agencies regulating energy, clean air, and climate to implement the policy in all proceedings authorized under law.

The Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) can be altered without repealing the law. One obvious addition would be traditional large hydroelectric power as many dams are more than a half century old. Large hydro is not part of California's Renewables Portfolio at present.

But more controversial would be to add nuclear to the RPS.

Gavin Newsom seems to be living in his own political reality. He wans to keep Diablo Canyon operating long enough so that it doesn't mess up his personal political career, but leave the difficult question of adding nuclear to the RPS to his successor.

Quote: Pacomartin

Gavin Newsom seems to be living in his own political reality. He wans to keep Diablo Canyon operating long enough so that it doesn't mess up his personal political career, but leave the difficult question of adding nuclear to the RPS to his successor.

It is what they all do out there. Remember in the 1990s CA tried a EV mandate. GM brought out that goofy EV1 that you had to lease to comply. It soon became clear EVs were nowhere near ready and they scrapped it. Now EVs seem closer though probably not ready to be 100% of the US fleet but now recharging is going to be the thing. CA wants to not just rebuild their electric generation but rebuild plus with all the EV charging that will be needed.

There is a reason I would never, ever live there.

Quote: AZDuffman

It is what they all do out there.

The California Law applies to imported electricity as well as in-state generaion. Obviously CA imports large amouns of
* hydro electric power from the Colombia River between the states of Washington and Oregon (Northwest Imports),
* nuclear generated electricity from Palo Verde plant in the Arizona desert (Sorthwest Imports).

%CA In-State | Including imports	2021 Fuel type	California In-State Generation (GWh)	Northwest Imports (net GWh)	Southwest Imports (net GWh)
8.5% | 9.3%	Nuclear	16,477	524	8,756
6.2% | 9.2%	Large Hydro	12,036	12,042	1,578

Even if the power companies can control your personal power so that you can't turn your AC colder than 78 degrees F, and you cannot recharge your EV between 4PM and 9PM during peak demand, you still need a power source that will supply base load. Your only real options are nuclear and natural gas.

Quote:

Tesla’s potential new business is lithium refining. The company is proposing a new facility in Texas to produce lithium hydroxide, a key component in higher performing lithium-ion batteries, according to a permitting application recently made available, reported by Bloomberg.

The refining facility is “the first of its kind in North America,” reads the application. Most lithium ore comes from Australia and South America and ends up being refined in China.

Refined lithium prices have gone from a low of less than $6,000 a metric ton to more than $71,000 a metric ton over the past few years. The increase in lithium prices has added very roughly $2,000 to the price of an average EV over that span. The lack of refining capacity, and local refining capacity, is the reason Tesla is considering the move.
Tesla (ticker: TSLA) didn’t respond to a request for comment about the project. It’s application says construction could begin in 2022 with production beginning in 2024.
The project looks like a sound decision given how Musk feels about refining. “So lithium is actually . . . very common…pretty much everywhere, but you have to refine the lithium into battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, which has to be extremely high purity,” explained Musk on the company’s second quarter earnings conference cal