Egypt Morsi

Until it becomes a civilized nation does it really matter who runs it?

Quote: Fleastiff

Until it becomes a civilized nation does it really matter who runs it?

Yes, with the Suez Canal they can put the hurt on the world.

Quote: AZDuffman

Yes, with the Suez Canal they can put the hurt on the world.

In 1975, Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat reopened the Suez Canal as a gesture of peace after talks with Israel. Today, an average of 50 ships navigate the canal daily, carrying more than 300 million tons of goods a year.

TEU Twenty Feet Equivalent Unit
5,000 TEU old Panama locks
"Emma" Class (2006; 12,500 TEU) have been passing through Suez canal since 2006, but will be able to pass through new locks in Panama in 2015.

My question is would the Egyptians really shut down the Suez canal again? No matter who is in charge. And if they did, would it really bring the economy of Europe to a halt? Couldn't they make do on ships that circle Africa or go through Panama Canal.

I know it is a longer distance, but New York takes ships that go through the Suez canal.

Quote: Pacomartin

In 1975, Egyptian President Anwar el-Sadat reopened the Suez Canal as a gesture of peace after talks with Israel. Today, an average of 50 ships navigate the canal daily, carrying more than 300 million tons of goods a year.

TEU Twenty Feet Equivalent Unit
5,000 TEU old Panama locks
"Emma" Class (2006; 12,500 TEU) have been passing through Suez canal since 2006, but will be able to pass through new locks in Panama in 2015.

My question is would the Egyptians really shut down the Suez canal again? No matter who is in charge. And if they did, would it really bring the economy of Europe to a halt? Couldn't they make do on ships that circle Africa or go through Panama Canal.

I know it is a longer distance, but New York takes ships that go through the Suez canal.

It would make oil transport difficult, just like the crisis in the 1950s.

Would a rational Egypt shut it? Heck no. Would a radical muslim government that hates the west? In a minute!

Quote: AZDuffman

It would make oil transport difficult, just like the crisis in the 1950s.
Would a rational Egypt shut it? Heck no. Would a radical muslim government that hates the west? In a minute!

Oil cracks $100 as Egypt violence adds to risks
Closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would divert oil tankers around the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 6,000 miles to transit, increasing both costs and shipping time. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-10 days to the United States.

I understand that there would be an impact on the economy, but it is not a strangle hold. Even a radical Muslim government would realize that shutting down the canal would only wound the Western countries, while the impact on Egypt itself would be devestating.

Quote: Pacomartin

I understand that there would be an impact on the economy, but it is not a strangle hold. Even a radical Muslim government would realize that shutting down the canal would only wound the Western countries, while the impact on Egypt itself would be devestating.

I still say they would not care. The leaders will still live in luxury and will then be able to rally the faithful around the cause of hurting the west. Egypt doesn't export much oil in any case so the effect on them is minimal.

Quote: AZDuffman

Egypt doesn't export much oil in any case so the effect on them is minimal.

The waterway is one of the country's main sources of foreign currency, along with tourism, oil and gas exports and remittances from Egyptians living abroad. On May 1, 2013 Egypt raised the fees paid by ships passing through the Suez Canal in an effort to boost revenue as the economy struggles to fend off a currency crisis.

Passage fees are well over $100 million per week.
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Turkey is roughly the same size as Egypt. But their demographic statistics are reasonably close to the USA (still high growth by European, Russian or Chinese standards). They have a chance of a stable economy and possibly even entry into the EU.

But Egypt is worse than India.

Egypt = 85.3 million
Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.9
Growth rate (percent) 1.9%
Births (in thousands) 2,029
Deaths (in thousands) 409
Life expectancy at birth (years) 73
Median Age = 24.0

Turkey = 80.7 million
Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.1
Growth rate (percent) 1.2%
Births (in thousands) 1,390
Deaths (in thousands) 493
Life expectancy at birth (years) 73
Median Age = 28.1

United States = 316.7 million
Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.1
Growth rate (percent) 0.9%
Births (in thousands) 4,381
Deaths (in thousands) 2,711
Life expectancy at birth (years) 79
Median Age = 36.9

Quote: Pacomartin

Turkey is roughly the same size as Egypt. But their demographic statistics are reasonably close to the USA (still high growth by European, Russian or Chinese standards). They have a chance of a stable economy and possibly even entry into the EU.

Turkey is currently the "sleeper" country in the world. It is moving to a first-world status economy-wise and has a fantastic location as far as being able to wield influence. Having her in leadership of the muslim world is probably our best hope for stability of any kind there.

Quote: AZDuffman

Turkey is currently the "sleeper" country in the world. It is moving to a first-world status economy-wise and has a fantastic location as far as being able to wield influence. Having her in leadership of the muslim world is probably our best hope for stability of any kind there.

It's sort of ranked in the middle for Middle Eastern countries by Human Development Index (HDI) which is a measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living,child welfare and quality of life for countries worldwide.

United Nations Human Development Index
0.831 = Hungary <===============
0.834 Qatar
0.818 United Arab Emirates
0.796 Bahrain
0.790 Kuwait
0.782 Saudi Arabia
0.769 Libya
0.745 Lebanon
0.742 Iran
0.731 Oman
0.722 Turkey
0.713 Algeria
0.712 Tunisia
0.700 Jordan
0.670 Occupied Palestinian Territories
0.662 Egypt
0.648 Syria
0.591 Morocco
0.458 Yemen
0.456 = Haiti <===============

Quote: Pacomartin

It's sort of ranked in the middle for Middle Eastern countries by Human Development Index (HDI) which is a measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living,child welfare and quality of life for countries worldwide.

It isn't where it is today, it is the trend and the geography.