Egypt Morsi

Quote: AZDuffman

It isn't where it is today, it is the trend and the geography.

Certainly a lot of people believe that Turkey will be the bridge nation. President Obama really urges the EU admit Turkey within the next ten years in this hope.

But Turks are not Arabs. There is a strong ethnic component at work.

Quote: Pacomartin

Certainly a lot of people believe that Turkey will be the bridge nation. President Obama really urges the EU admit Turkey within the next ten years in this hope.

The Turks have been trying to get in for years, they may be better off staying out. They might do better as the "outsider bridge" than joining a Union that has a lot of members teetering on bankruptcy and with huge demographic issues. Surely they would easier dominate Greece and other Southern EU nations easier outside than in, where their actions would be more limited.

They did it once before!

Quote: AZDuffman

a Union that has a lot of members teetering on bankruptcy and with huge demographic issues.

It's difficult to believe these 28 countries will just continue with these low fertility rates forever.

France seems to be OK because of all those Algerian immigrants.

Total fertility rate per woman
1.28 Lithuania 3,515,858
1.29 Czech Republic 10,162,921
1.31 Romania 21,790,479
1.32 Poland 38,383,809
1.32 Slovenia 1,992,690
1.34 Latvia 2,178,443
1.39 Slovakia 5,488,339
1.40 Greece 10,772,967
1.41 Hungary 9,939,470
1.41 Italy 61,482,297
1.42 Austria 8,221,646
1.42 Germany 81,147,265
1.43 Bulgaria 6,981,642
1.45 Croatia 4,475,611
1.45 Estonia 1,266,375
1.46 Cyprus 1,155,403
1.48 Spain 47,370,542
1.51 Portugal 10,799,270
1.53 Malta 411,277
1.65 Belgium 10,444,268
1.67 Sweden 9,119,423
1.73 Denmark 5,556,452
1.73 Finland 5,266,114
1.77 Luxembourg 514,862
1.78 Netherlands 16,805,037
1.90 United Kingdom 63,395,574
2.01 Ireland 4,775,982
2.08 France 65,951,611

Quote: Pacomartin

It's difficult to believe these 28 countries will just continue with these low fertility rates forever.

I do wonder if in history there has ever been a race of people who just stopped reproducing their way to genocide this way?

Not to this extent. Certainly birth rates went up and down. With the massive famines in China about the year 1960, the drop in population cannot be attributed entirely to deaths, but must have been accompanied by failure to get pregnant, spontaneous abortion, or just the lack of will of starving people to have sex.

Certainly after WWI in Europe the fertility rate dropped dramatically in Europe, but I don't think it went below 2. I don't think an entire society that had enough to eat, and was not at war or besieged by plague was able to achieve total fertility rates under 2 until the late 1960's.

Although officially the TFR of the world is 2.45, 48% of the the world live in countries with TFR=2.1 or lower. Now many of them are still growing since their population is still young (commonly referred to as population momentum).Remember that "total fertility rate" covers the expected fertility over a lifetime. If more of the population is at child bearing age, you still get growth.

Since India has over 17% of the world's population, and will eventually surpass China in population, it's TFR forms a sort of benchmark. Currently India's TFR=2.55.
An additional 22% of the world's population lives in countries with TFR greater than India. None of these countries are exactly thriving.

Quote: Pacomartin

Since India has over 17% of the world's population, and will eventually surpass China in population, it's TFR forms a sort of benchmark. Currently India's TFR=2.55.
An additional 22% of the world's population lives in countries with TFR greater than India. None of these countries are exactly thriving.

This is part of why I say that humans have about 1,000 years left. The next 50 years, or until the late 2000s the shift will be small but growing. After that the European-heritage populations will have real collapse. By 2250 we may see European peoples reduced to something like American Indian tribes are today. Namely a few holdouts that live on reservations and the rest just checking a box on a form as a very minority in a larger population.

You might be onto something and I'd tentatively agree, but tell us your vision for the final 750 years

Quote: chickenman

You might be onto something and I'd tentatively agree, but tell us your vision for the final 750 years

see the spin-off thread.

Quote: AZDuffman

By 2250 we may see European peoples reduced to something like American Indian tribes are today. Namely a few holdouts that live on reservations and the rest just checking a box on a form as a very minority in a larger population.

Possibly. From 1980 to 1990 Russia increased population by 6.43% while the USA increased by 9.86%. But Russia peaked in 1995 and went into precipitous decline. By the year 2000 births were 1.27 million and deaths were 2.21 million. But with economic recovery, reduction of violence, and improved conditions there has been a noticeable recovery.

Mind you, deaths still out number births, but the difference is reduced from a million to a quarter of a million. In some years immigration makes up the difference.

It seems difficult to believe that given these aging populations in Japan, Germany, and Italy there won't be some kind of reaction.

Quote: Pacomartin

It seems difficult to believe that given these aging populations in Japan, Germany, and Italy there won't be some kind of reaction.

Most of the problem is it takes time to change attitudes. Pre-1900 USA you had as many kids as possible for free farm labor and because most died before age 20. By the 1950s people still had 4+ in many cases because the cost to raise them had not quite been realized and "that is what you do, have kids!" Come 1980 most people felt raising a kid meant the kid's own room and partial bathroom; lots of organized sports; then save to pay their way to college. With the expense realized the number of people having more than 2 kids crashed.

I do not know your age, but I was born in 1969 and began school in 1976. Classmates who had more than 2 brothers and sisters were almost always the youngest in the line; those with 2 or less were more often the oldest. I am not saying my birth is the center of the universe, but in this regard I was at the turning point.

Now people with 3+ kids are considered, lets face it, weird. If you have 4 or more folks really wonder. As another "lets face it" the term "big Italian family" is a redundant term. So if Italy has a demographic problem of falling births, will the behavioral norms just flip back in a generation? I find chances against it.