Egypt Morsi

I was born in 1957. In the early 1950's the TFR in the USA maxed out at about 3.8 . To some people it sounds racist that I would be flipping out a TFR=2.9 for Egypt, but the world has changed radically by adding a few extra billion people.

With regard to the year that you were born, it was pretty much the center of the demographic shift. Although the laws were changed about immigration in 1966, it took a few years until that started the major change in population ethnicities. I think TFR probably bottomed in the early 1970's, until immigration began raising it back up again.

The general estimate by demographers if the USA had been a sealed off society, that population would have peaked at roughly 250 million As it was the US reached that point by 1990.

1970: 203.4 million
1980: 226.5 million
1990: 248.7 million

While flipping back the clock is unlikely, it might be possible in a decade or two. Mexico had a TFR=4.8 in 1980, and dropped to TFR=2.8 by 1998. It is now somewhere near 2.25, and Mexico's population will probably not exceed 150 million. Now there is a huge emigration factor involved in that number over 100 years.

BTW, I am 25% Arabic, which should defuse some of the idea that I am being racist. I honestly believe that the some form of government intervention is required to deal with populations with TFR of 2.5 or higher. If we wait for the cycle to kick in of growing wealth, it will be too late to stop a massive catastrophe unprecedented in human history.

But it maybe that government intervention is required for populations with TFR<1.7 ; it could take the form of tax incentives or simply more campaigns involving beautiful celebrities with smiling children.

All I know about Egypt is a friend of mine visited there
in the 70's and he said everybody stank, like they never
bathed. And the cities all stank like the food they ate.
Good enough for me never to go there.

Quote: Pacomartin

With regard to the year that you were born, it was pretty much the center of the demographic shift. Although the laws were changed about immigration in 1966, it took a few years until that started the major change in population ethnicities. I think TFR probably bottomed in the early 1970's, until immigration began raising it back up again.

It did because of two words--"THE PILL." But more was at play. The falloff seems to have started around 1966. This is the first of the people born post-WWII having kids. They saw more peace and plenty than those before. Even Vietnam was unlike other wars, you only had to be away for 395 days, not the duration, like most wars before. While lots of kids served in Vietnam, the numbers are not enough to alone explain the collapse in birthrate.

I still remember in grade school some of the teachers who said how full the school used to be, desks crammed wall-to-wall. When I was there we had a few unused rooms and my class size hit a nadir of 49 in sixth grade of a Catholic School. Consolidation later brought those numbers up a little, along with more births a by the late 70s "echo-boom" in grades behind me. But there would never again be the filled-up buildings of the 1960s.

Quote:

BTW, I am 25% Arabic, which should defuse some of the idea that I am being racist. I honestly believe that the some form of government intervention is required to deal with populations with TFR of 2.5 or higher. If we wait for the cycle to kick in of growing wealth, it will be too late to stop a massive catastrophe unprecedented in human history.

The Arab World has the best shot of influence now, if they could only get their act together and take it. (BTW: I don't think discussing a situation is "racist" and in fact think "racist" is a term used too often by people who do not like what they see in front of them so they put their fingers in their ears and scream like children. Anyways....)

Because of the 1970s oil booms their populations are very young. But "Arab World" is a misnomer as there is no move to act as one world or unify even informally. It is like American Indian tribes, seen as outsiders as one but many hated the others. Nasser tried to unify things but there was no desire. Even today Kuwaitis hate Iraqis. Iraq itself has internal divisions. Egyptians do not care for "oil kingdoms." Nobody likes the Palestinians except to the extent they dislike the Israelis even more. Syria is allied more with Iran than any Arab country. The USA and Russians are happy to see it continue as a Mexican Standoff as long as one side does not get an edge and the oil flows. The game continues until a war happens, then all lose the game.