Wyoming proposal to ban EVs by 2035

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January 20th, 2023 at 10:30:15 AM permalink
missedhervee
Member since: Apr 23, 2021
Threads: 96
Posts: 3092
I wonder what the projections are for increased use of electricity by EV's?

What, maybe an additional fifty or so percent?
January 20th, 2023 at 2:41:47 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: missedhervee
I wonder what the projections are for increased use of electricity by EV's?

What, maybe an additional fifty or so percent?


The video that I posted earlier makes his case for 30% or an extra 1,250 terrawatt hours kWh over the current production of around 4,000 terrawatt hours. But in California it will be way over 50% (possibly double if you don't count imported electricity from other states). At the same time CA will be eliminating most of the present sources such as nuclear, hydrodynamic, and natural gas. The problem wih imported electricity is #1 it keeps prices high, and #2 in the event of heat waves utilities are naturally encouraed to sell power inside the state by politicians.

Electricity production in the US has been fairly steady for the last two decades (numbers are in terrawatt hours). Conservation measures and improved efficiency have pretty much balanced out population growth.

2020 4,009 of which 774 TWh was from coal
2019 4,127
2018 4,178
2017 4,034
2016 4,076
2015 4,076
2014 4,095
2013 4,066
2012 4,048
2011 4,099
2010 4,125
2009 3,951
2008 4,119
2007 4,157 of which 2016 TWh was from coal or peak electricity derived from coal
2006 4,065
2005 4,056
2004 3,970
2003 3,884
2002 3,858
2001 3,737

In previous decades we expanded the production of electricity geatly.

2000 3,801 of which 1966 TWh was from coal
1990 3,038 of which 1594 TWh was from coal
1980 2,290 of which 1162 TWh was from coal
1970 1,535 of which 704 TWh was from coal
1960 760 of which 403 TWh was from coal
1950 335 of which 155 TWh was from coal

About half of the modern generation of electricity is from coal up until 2007. Although renewables have increased, outside of California since 2007 most of the replacement of coal has been via natural gas. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, but it only produces about half the carbon dioxide of coal. But then there is fracking...

nationwide 2020
40.3% Natural Gas
19.8% Total Renewables+ Large Hydrodynamic
19.7% Nuclear
19.3% Coal

California in-state production for 2021
50.2% Natural Gas
41.0% Total Renewables+ Large Hydrodynamic
8.5% Nuclear
0.2% Coal
January 21st, 2023 at 10:36:33 AM permalink
missedhervee
Member since: Apr 23, 2021
Threads: 96
Posts: 3092
Well, I can only say "I hope you're right" and that there is a happy ending to this massive change of automotive locomotion.
January 21st, 2023 at 1:49:01 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: ABC
In August 2020, hundreds of thousands of Californians briefly lost power in rolling blackouts amid a heat wave, marking the first time outages were ordered in the state due to insufficient energy supplies in nearly 20 years. The state has been working to avoid a similar scenario as California is in the midst of an unprecedented heat wave that officials said is on track to be the state's hottest and longest for September 2022.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/california-blackouts-power-grid/story?id=89460998#:~:text=In%20August%202020%2C%20hundreds%20of,supplies%20in%20nearly%2020%20years..


Consumption and production of electricity is very low compared to other states. Despite the very low consumption California must still import a large chunk of their electricity. In 2021 they imported 16.8% of electricity from the Pacific Northwest (with hydrodanmic power generated from the roaring Columbia river as the #1 source) and 26.3% of electricity from Southwest United States (with nuclear energy generated from the Palo Verde plan in Arizona deser, the largest nuclear power plant in the nation).

California signed into law that they will phase out all nonrenewable power sources for electricity by 2045. The biggest issue is that ~50% of the states in-state generation is from natural gas, and hydrodynamic power and nuclear are also considered non-renewables. So in addition to shutting down Diablo Canyon, the last remaining nuclear power plant in Califrnia, they will not be able to import electricity from Palo Verde in Arizona.

In August 2020 there were still only a few hundred thousands EVs in California. With all the shutdowns planned California will have trouble meeting summer demand even without millions of EVs to contend with. Although they are planning massive number of solar plants and wind farms, and offshore wind projects, that will simply drive the price of electricity even higher.

Quote: missedhervee
Well, I can only say "I hope you're right" and that there is a happy ending to this massive change of automotive locomotion.

Personally, I am predicting a massive catastrophe in a summer in California soon. I don't think EVs will be primarily to blame, but they will be crucified in the media. Even though the issues are mostly unique to California, the rest of the nation may want to withdraw government support (federal ad state) for EVs.

Trump was elected in 2016 for several reaons, but energy and infrastructure were big ones. Energy and infrastructure and Biden's old age may throw the 2024 election to the Republicans.


  • HI 531 kWh per month 2021 $178 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • CA 542 kWh per month 2021 $124 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • VT 567 kWh per month 2021 $109 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • ME 584 kWh per month 2021 $99 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • RI 585 kWh per month 2021 $130 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • AK 594 kWh per month 2021 $134 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MA 596 kWh per month 2021 $136 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NY 599 kWh per month 2021 $117 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NH 631 kWh per month 2021 $125 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NM 646 kWh per month 2021 $87 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MI 670 kWh per month 2021 $118 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NJ 687 kWh per month 2021 $112 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • WI 690 kWh per month 2021 $100 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • CO 704 kWh per month 2021 $92 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • DC 706 kWh per month 2021 $92 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • CT 713 kWh per month 2021 $156 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • IL 728 kWh per month 2021 $96 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • UT 775 kWh per month 2021 $81 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MN 776 kWh per month 2021 $105 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • PA 851 kWh per month 2021 $117 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • IA 861 kWh per month 2021 $110 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • WY 867 kWh per month 2021 $97 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MT 872 kWh per month 2021 $98 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • OH 879 kWh per month 2021 $112 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • US 886 kWh per month 2021 $121 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • KS 890 kWh per month 2021 $116 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • OR 936 kWh per month 2021 $106 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • IN 946 kWh per month 2021 $127 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • DE 950 kWh per month 2021 $119 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NV 959 kWh per month 2021 $110 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • ID 961 kWh per month 2021 $98 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MD 973 kWh per month 2021 $128 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • WA 984 kWh per month 2021 $99 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NE 1,005 kWh per month 2021 $108 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • SD 1,019 kWh per month 2021 $125 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MO 1,039 kWh per month 2021 $119 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • ND 1,041 kWh per month 2021 $113 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • AZ 1,048 kWh per month 2021 $131 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • NC 1,063 kWh per month 2021 $120 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • WV 1,066 kWh per month 2021 $130 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • GA 1,072 kWh per month 2021 $134 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • SC 1,078 kWh per month 2021 $139 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • KY 1,084 kWh per month 2021 $125 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • OK 1,088 kWh per month 2021 $120 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • TX 1,094 kWh per month 2021 $132 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • VA 1,094 kWh per month 2021 $131 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • FL 1,096 kWh per month 2021 $130 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • AR 1,098 kWh per month 2021 $124 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • AL 1,140 kWh per month 2021 $148 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • MS 1,171 kWh per month 2021 $135 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • TN 1,183 kWh per month 2021 $131 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • LA 1,192 kWh per month 2021 $131 average monthly residential bill in 2021


California is not Norway. In addition to Norway having half the population of LA county. they have 1600 dams wich produce far more clean electricity than they can possibly consume domestically, so they make a sizeable income from exports. Homes are almost all heated with electricity and conversion of all new car sales to BEVs or PHEVs produces no real strain on the production supply in Norway. Because their electric production is done without fossil fuels, they also get the maximum benefits from electric vehicles. Norway is about as close to energy Nirvana as any country in the world.
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