Wyoming proposal to ban EVs by 2035
January 20th, 2023 at 10:30:15 AM permalink | |
missedhervee Member since: Apr 23, 2021 Threads: 96 Posts: 3092 | I wonder what the projections are for increased use of electricity by EV's? What, maybe an additional fifty or so percent? |
January 20th, 2023 at 2:41:47 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
The video that I posted earlier makes his case for 30% or an extra 1,250 terrawatt hours kWh over the current production of around 4,000 terrawatt hours. But in California it will be way over 50% (possibly double if you don't count imported electricity from other states). At the same time CA will be eliminating most of the present sources such as nuclear, hydrodynamic, and natural gas. The problem wih imported electricity is #1 it keeps prices high, and #2 in the event of heat waves utilities are naturally encouraed to sell power inside the state by politicians. Electricity production in the US has been fairly steady for the last two decades (numbers are in terrawatt hours). Conservation measures and improved efficiency have pretty much balanced out population growth. 2020 4,009 of which 774 TWh was from coal 2019 4,127 2018 4,178 2017 4,034 2016 4,076 2015 4,076 2014 4,095 2013 4,066 2012 4,048 2011 4,099 2010 4,125 2009 3,951 2008 4,119 2007 4,157 of which 2016 TWh was from coal or peak electricity derived from coal 2006 4,065 2005 4,056 2004 3,970 2003 3,884 2002 3,858 2001 3,737 In previous decades we expanded the production of electricity geatly. 2000 3,801 of which 1966 TWh was from coal 1990 3,038 of which 1594 TWh was from coal 1980 2,290 of which 1162 TWh was from coal 1970 1,535 of which 704 TWh was from coal 1960 760 of which 403 TWh was from coal 1950 335 of which 155 TWh was from coal About half of the modern generation of electricity is from coal up until 2007. Although renewables have increased, outside of California since 2007 most of the replacement of coal has been via natural gas. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, but it only produces about half the carbon dioxide of coal. But then there is fracking... nationwide 2020 40.3% Natural Gas 19.8% Total Renewables+ Large Hydrodynamic 19.7% Nuclear 19.3% Coal California in-state production for 2021 50.2% Natural Gas 41.0% Total Renewables+ Large Hydrodynamic 8.5% Nuclear 0.2% Coal |
January 21st, 2023 at 10:36:33 AM permalink | |
missedhervee Member since: Apr 23, 2021 Threads: 96 Posts: 3092 | Well, I can only say "I hope you're right" and that there is a happy ending to this massive change of automotive locomotion. |
January 21st, 2023 at 1:49:01 PM permalink | |
Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Consumption and production of electricity is very low compared to other states. Despite the very low consumption California must still import a large chunk of their electricity. In 2021 they imported 16.8% of electricity from the Pacific Northwest (with hydrodanmic power generated from the roaring Columbia river as the #1 source) and 26.3% of electricity from Southwest United States (with nuclear energy generated from the Palo Verde plan in Arizona deser, the largest nuclear power plant in the nation). California signed into law that they will phase out all nonrenewable power sources for electricity by 2045. The biggest issue is that ~50% of the states in-state generation is from natural gas, and hydrodynamic power and nuclear are also considered non-renewables. So in addition to shutting down Diablo Canyon, the last remaining nuclear power plant in Califrnia, they will not be able to import electricity from Palo Verde in Arizona. In August 2020 there were still only a few hundred thousands EVs in California. With all the shutdowns planned California will have trouble meeting summer demand even without millions of EVs to contend with. Although they are planning massive number of solar plants and wind farms, and offshore wind projects, that will simply drive the price of electricity even higher.
Personally, I am predicting a massive catastrophe in a summer in California soon. I don't think EVs will be primarily to blame, but they will be crucified in the media. Even though the issues are mostly unique to California, the rest of the nation may want to withdraw government support (federal ad state) for EVs. Trump was elected in 2016 for several reaons, but energy and infrastructure were big ones. Energy and infrastructure and Biden's old age may throw the 2024 election to the Republicans.
California is not Norway. In addition to Norway having half the population of LA county. they have 1600 dams wich produce far more clean electricity than they can possibly consume domestically, so they make a sizeable income from exports. Homes are almost all heated with electricity and conversion of all new car sales to BEVs or PHEVs produces no real strain on the production supply in Norway. Because their electric production is done without fossil fuels, they also get the maximum benefits from electric vehicles. Norway is about as close to energy Nirvana as any country in the world. |