consequences of fertility bust

Quote: 1nickelmiracle

That's the problem, green energy isn't cheap, so without cheap energy the population will suffer one way or another. Robotics will be necessary, but again, green energy isn't cheap and assuming fossil fuel energy won't be around much longer, the population will slow or plummet.

For 2021 according to the EIA, California per capita used 407 kWh/month generated by instate utilities and another 120 kWh per month generated by out of state utilities. Most EV's require at least 400 kWh/month to operate

The bulk of the power (instate & imported) will be illegal in California by 2045
37.9% Natural Gas
9.2% Large Hydroelectric
9.3% Nuclear
3.0% Coal
0.2% Other
6.8% Unspecified Power is imported from other states but CA does not know what primary source was used.

Under California state law you can change the status of a primary source and declare it renewable. I suspect they might do that with Large Hydroelectric. Folsom Dam, Oroville Dam, and Shasta Dam are in state, but the huge dams on the Columbia River aren't going away. Under the law, CA cannot import electricity from these dams after 2045.

Large Hydro
12,036 California In-State Generation (GWh)
12,042 Northwest Imports (GWh)
1,578 Southwest Imports (GWh)

Although declaring natural gas a "renewable" is a real stretch of the word, the big question is what about nuclear power which generates no greenhouse gases. Although Small Modular Reactors can be ordered more quickly than current power plants, if CA does not react in the next decade, they may find all the production capability is under contract.

So you could go on a talk show and argue that Califonia won't last.


Many advocates of EVs argue that if we returned to the growth rate of the 1970s-1980s we could easily accomodate the excess demand of electric vehicles. But of course, the 1970s-1980s were when the majoriy nuclear power plants were commissioned, Bill Gates is wisely investing in small modular reactors (SMR) in his bid to return to being the nations richest man.

But California will not only not build any SMRs, but they will shut down their last plant and it will be illegal for them to purchase power from the Palo Verde plant in Arizona which is partly owned by
Southern California Edison (15.8%),
Southern California Public Power Authority (5.9%),
Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (5.7%).

Russian and Ukrainian populations were in a fatal decline even before he war. Russia was losing 300k per year, with a fertility rate half what is necessary to sustain the population. In the past year, they’ve lost at least 1.2 million people, including hundreds of thousands of young men, who will never father children in Russia. Plus another 100k killed or wounded in the war. Ukraine in a similar situation. There is no way for either nation to recover from these losses.

How War in Ukraine is Destroying Russia

I am starting to get convinced that the U.S. wants a prolonged war because it is really diminishing Russia's military and future military.

Quote: DRich

I am starting to get convinced that the U.S. wants a prolonged war because it is really diminishing Russia's military and future military.

Of course, it's the proverbial "win/win."

Proxy wars are the way to go.

Quote: missedhervee

Of course, it's the proverbial "win/win."

Proxy wars are the way to go.

I do proxy wars all the time in the Civ 5 game
My main rival attacks a weaker foe
I send that weaker foe gold and military units

Quote: terapined

I do proxy wars all the time in the Civ 5 game
My main rival attacks a weaker foe
I send that weaker foe gold and military units

Yup, life's a game.