The last 1,000 years of man; 2013-2200

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July 8th, 2013 at 9:13:26 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
After developing this idea in my mind for some time, Stephen Hawking said we have 1,000 years left, though his reasons are different from mine.

Estimates range that we have been on earth for 2 to 6 million years, with only about 6,000 of that recorded and most of that recorded 6,000 came from the European peoples with some in other places. If the history of the world were compressed into one year, humans would not show up until well into The Dick Clark Countdown, or anout 11:50 on 12-31.

Put in blunt terms, humans are a recent phenomenon to the earth, and the earth will be here long after it shakes us off her back like the fleas that we are!

But how might it happen? Rounding the date to when the last person is no more to 3,000 AD, here is one way it could go.

2013-2100: The human population peaks at about 9 billion worldwide, but like human creations such as IBM and the Roman Empire, the peak will precede an unimaginable and great fall. Birth rates, already falling, keep falling below replacement level. To make matters worse, they fall most in the educated and wealthy parts of the world the most while the poorer and less developed parts keep population increasing longer, though they will soon fall.

But this causes big problems. Unable to produce enough wealth, the rich nations share less with the poor ones, causing a spike in their mortality rates. This causes a decline in cheap labor for the factories making the cheap things the wealthy nations consume, causing further loss in wealth.

2100-2200 This is the century that will break mankind on earth. All large nations will have their own problems:

The United States, once the "Great Melting Pot" will have turned into a racial spoils system. Skin color and quotas will determine who gets into college; who the government does business with; and potentially who gets medical care.

The education gap will continue the shift from those with degrees and those without to those with "real" degrees in engineering, math, business, and sciences vs those with "useless" degrees in history, english, and anything with the word "studies" in the name. The former will be the leaders while the later lead a life working in "white collar factories" pushing paper in jobs where you have to show intelligence to be trained but little real skill is needed. Forgotten will be the smart ones who learn skilled trades, though the skills they need will decline as "replacing parts" continues to replace "fixing things" in trades. Leading a very marginal life of bartenders, waitresses, and janitors will be those who learned neither. Much of this effect will hit all the western nations.

By 2200, Japan, Europe, Korea, and Russia will exist mostly as memories. Few peoples will try to re-settle in inhospitable Japan, but Russia will see people pour in. Ethnic Russians may be herded onto "Russian Reservations" as Adolph Hitler planned to do by 1950. At the least they will abandon Siberia and Eastern Russia, congregating around Moscow and the European borderlands. The rest of Europe will do a little better, but demographically they will be gone.

China and India will be there, they are just too populated to disappear in 100 years, but they will be changed. Neither may hold together as unified countries. Both will be massively old populations, drawing resources from the young.

Most of the rest of the world will plod along, being driven by events more than driving them. Brazil will keep going along in a boom-and-bust cycle. Africa will keep having wars that the world ignores. And by 2200, the Middle East will have used up the wealth that oil built and no longer be a threat to the world economy it was, and hence also ignored.

By 2200, the USD and Euro will no longer be worldwide currencies, and international trade may return to barter.

TO BE CONTINUED...........
The President is a fink.
July 8th, 2013 at 9:50:30 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: AZDuffman
with only about 6,000 of that recorded


Six thousand years is roughly the beginning of the world in Jewish and conservative Christian tradition. Most modern science recognizes it as roughly the beginning of writing in the Middle East, and also a time when world population was about 20 million (same as present day New York metropolitan area).

The Bering Land bridge had been open to the sea for several thousand years by this point, so it was a very small percentage of humans living in the Americas.
July 8th, 2013 at 1:21:21 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Nothing ever happens like anybody predicts it will.
Thats because new discoveries and advancements
will be made that we can't possibly predict. These
are always game changers. Like air conditioning.
Most people who know about this stuff agree that
air cond changed the world and is the most important
thing we ever invented. Refrigeration is included in that.
The ability to cool and freeze food, and to control
the environment changed everything. 125 years ago
this was unimaginable. Just like future inventions are
unimaginable to us right now.

My life has changed so much just since the home computer
came into my world 20 years ago. I haven't been to a book
store or library in 15 years because of it. I now order
half the stuff I buy online. The world is literally at my fingertips.
I have an old friend who's a really smart guy, the same age as
me. But he refuses to get a computer, and I have nothing in
common with him anymore. He's a throwback to another era,
he's misinformed or uninformed about everything. Its like
talking to somebody who's still living in the 70's.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
July 8th, 2013 at 1:52:44 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: Evenbob
Nothing ever happens like anybody predicts it will.


That statement is pretty hard to argue with, but when Reverend Malthus began writing the first serious books about overpopulation in the early 19th century, the TFR was closer to 8. Once survival rates go up, the TFR rates go down drastically. You can do a lot with just plain old rhythm method. The TFR in the USA dropped from 3.8 to 2.8 even before contraceptives were legal or widely available.

The absolute lowest fertility rates are not in Europe, but in Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea where crowded urban conditions make it the most expensive places to have children.

Possibly telecommunications and virtual presence will advance to the stage that many people will be able to achieve virtual commuting and live in small towns. Holographic performances may make it possible to enjoy some of the other virtues of living in crowded cities. It is possible that fertility rates will go back to Zero Population Growth as some people no longer live in tiny urban spaces.

July 8th, 2013 at 2:29:08 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: Evenbob
Nothing ever happens like anybody predicts it will.
Thats because new discoveries and advancements
will be made that we can't possibly predict. These
are always game changers. Like air conditioning.
Most people who know about this stuff agree that
air cond changed the world and is the most important
thing we ever invented. Refrigeration is included in that.
The ability to cool and freeze food, and to control
the environment changed everything. 125 years ago
this was unimaginable. Just like future inventions are
unimaginable to us right now.


This is true, Bob, but it does not mean we do not take a look at what is going on around us and make some guesses based on trends and what we know from the past. We know demographics are showing a major change. We know this could cause several societies to fall. And we know when societies fall it causes a ripple effect. I'm not trying to make exact predictions, I am making the case that humanity has <1,000 years left and giving some ideas of how it may happen for discussion.
The President is a fink.
July 8th, 2013 at 3:34:15 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
link if you can't see picture

This world population from 1950-2050 is divided between the highly erratic data regarding what really happened, and the relatively smooth prediction curve. Data is shown for absolute numbers in change of population, and for percentage.

The prediction is that the More Developed countries will increase population by 61 MILLION people (or 4.9%) which is only positive because of immigration while the Less Developed countries will increase by 2.227 BILLION people (or 38.1%).

It is difficult to believe that this change will proceed without conflict.
July 8th, 2013 at 3:44:21 PM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
It is meaningless to consider numbers of people. People are largelly fungible.
In Africa a 12 year old is already more expensive than his Kalisnokov. Even if you put a black baby on TV featuring its bloated belly and flies around its mouth while WASPS are trying to enjoy their dinner, you still can't get any real value out of them as soldiers and no value at all as anything else.
Educated people don't want children... they ship them off to Switzerland if at all possible.

Change and predictions? Go to Easter Island.. Two Groups: One says cut down trees, make canoes, fish; Other says, Make statues and pray to Gods to protect trees and soil and bring us food. Which group won in the end? No soil, no trees, no canoes, no people. Large statues, nobody to look at them. Value of females? Well, after the Black Death yeah they became valuable.

Aztec and Mayan ended. Each featured counting houses indicating a fraudulent valuation of labor and agronomys and an imperial taxing society that failed to sustain itself as such.
July 8th, 2013 at 6:02:37 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18633
Quote: Fleastiff
Go to Easter Island.. Two Groups: One says cut down trees, make canoes, fish; Other says, Make statues and pray to Gods to protect trees and soil and bring us food. Which group won in the end? No soil, no trees, no canoes, no people. Large statues, nobody to look at them.


The other story of Easter. The other other story ended badly for the hero.
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
July 8th, 2013 at 6:04:30 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 188
Posts: 18633
The rise and fall of civilization pretty much describes what's happened so far -- at least where humans are concerned.
You believe in an invisible god, and dismiss people who say they are trans? Really?
July 8th, 2013 at 7:15:57 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
I live in a state that had one of the most important
cities in the world, Detroit. 50 years ago who predicted
whats happening now. Ever read the SF novel Dhalgren?
Thats modern Detroit. Frightening. And absolutely
nobody saw it coming.

I remember all the stuff that was being said about 2000
in 1960. Atomic cars, wrist TV's, flying to work in our jetpacks.
The world choking with over population, all the bee's had
died long ago so no pollination, the oceans were fished out
and we lived off of hydroponics. We took big food pills
instead of eating. To my knowledge none of it even came
close to being true. Nor will most of what they're predicting
now.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
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