The last 1,000 years of man; 2013-2200

The Chinese government is pushing a plan to move 250 million Chinese people from rural communities into newly constructed towns and cities over the next 12 years.
The same level of urbanization took centuries in the west. The total is three times the 85 million people who have moved voluntarily into cities in the last 5 years.
These drastic steps which will not be voluntary will create a Chinese urban population greater than most of the world's urban populations combined.

All of these newly minted urban people will buy electricity, public transportation, televisions, cars, and fire up the Chinese economy. Some of the methods will include bulldozing ancient villages, temples and entire neighborhoods, as well as paving over farmland and forcing farmers to move in order to make way for mega-cities. By 2030, China will boast 13 mega-cities, those with population of 10 million or more, according to Bloomberg. China currently has six mega-cities.

At the end of this 12 year period, China's population will peak and begin declining (at 3.367% larger than it's present day population).

So while futurology is difficult, a natural question will be what will happen to the Chinese economy when people are retiring by the hundreds of millions. There will be no more people to move to stimulate growth. With all crowded cities, fertility rate will plunge possibly as low as 1.0 , far below any possible incentives to return to zero populaion growth.

Quote: Pacomartin

All of these newly minted urban people will buy electricity, public transportation, televisions, cars, and fire up the Chinese economy. Some of the methods will include bulldozing ancient villages, temples and entire neighborhoods, as well as paving over farmland and forcing farmers to move in order to make way for mega-cities. By 2030, China will boast 13 mega-cities, those with population of 10 million or more, according to Bloomberg. China currently has six mega-cities.

They can force them to move, but it will not automatically fire up the economy. All that may happen is the poor farmers become poor city dwellers and live in the most modern slums in the world. If they need fed this will be a bigger drag because these poor folks at the least can currently grow their own food.

Quote:

So while futurology is difficult, a natural question will be what will happen to the Chinese economy when people are retiring by the hundreds of millions. There will be no more people to move to stimulate growth. With all crowded cities, fertility rate will plunge possibly as low as 1.0 , far below any possible incentives to return to zero populaion growth.

Taking a look at what is happening now gives some clues. China is already having the signs of labor problems. There is no shortage, but their golden-era is over. What is bad for them is they never have been able to move up-market, and they never established their own brands of goods. 1950-1970s Japan built cheap junk but by the 80s Sony and Toyota changed that image. In the 80s and 90s S Korea built junk but later Hyundai and others made competitive products. Since 1990 China has been the supplier of cheap junk for WMT and Harbor Freight, but they still are just mostly contract-production for western firms. What happens when some other place shows they are crazy in love with pollution and will work for $1 a day?

Quote: AZDuffman

They can force them to move, but it will not automatically fire up the economy. All that may happen is the poor farmers become poor city dwellers and live in the most modern slums in the world. If they need fed this will be a bigger drag because these poor folks at the least can currently grow their own food.

If 85 million people moved to cities over the last 5 years, it initially sounds like a lot. But given a population of almost 1.4 billion, many of which have been newly exposed to TV, it really isn't overwhelming. But moving another 250 million in 12 years, sometimes involuntarily, is a huge undertaking.

A little more than 50 years ago China did something similar. Tired of a populace living at subsistence levels they tried to industrialize at a rate that dwarfed England in the 18th century. The end result was the most deadly famine to strike humanity in it's entire history.

Weren't we talking a few months ago about the 60
Minutes piece that showed China investors building
entire cities that no Chinese could afford to move
into? Block after block, mile after mile of brand new
condo's and apartments that just sit there. And the
Chinese are still building them and they still invest
in them hoping for a return on their money someday.
The experts think they're facing a housing bubble
that will make the West's look pathetic by comparison.

Quote: Evenbob

Weren't we talking a few months ago about the 60 Minutes piece that showed China investors building entire cities that no Chinese could afford to move into? Block after block, mile after mile of brand new condo's and apartments that just sit there.

China has a total urban population of 712 million or 52.6% of the total population, rising from 26% in 1990. By moving an additional 250 million people to urban areas in 12 years, the government is hoping to take up this slack, and build additional cities.

I think that urban society is officially 80% in the USA. But that is a very loose definition of urban. It includes some very small towns, and very long distances.

Using a much stricter definition of big city life, urban areas of half a million or more (80 urban areas as small as Toledo, OH-MI) would be the homes of 53% of the US population. Urban areas down to 50,000 people would be the homes of 72% of the population.

Because the urbanization of China is much more artificial than that of the USA, there will probably be no small towns, just urban agglomerations of over a million.

Man will not exist either through self-destruction or through reinvention becoming a new species through genetic manipulation of our own genome. The true wealth is in space, so if someone can tap it, mankind has a much better chance. Obviously energy and elements would be almost free due to abundance, so the motive is not there if those in power lose control and become meaningless. Everyone is so sold on government only for the highest bidder, so I'll expect destruction to be our just punishment.

Quote: 1nickelmiracle

...so I'll expect destruction to be our just punishment.

Lines like that remind me of DR. PETERS from the film 12 Monkeys. DR PETERS is the guy who deliberately infects the world with a plague.

DR. PETERS
I think, Dr. Railly, you have given your alarmists a bad name. Surely there is very real and very convincing data that the planet cannot survive the excesses of the human race: proliferation of atomic devices, uncontrolled breeding habits, the rape of the environment, the pollution of land, sea, and air. In this context, isn't it obvious that "Chicken Little" represents the sane vision and that Homo Sapiens' motto, "Let's go shopping!" is the cry of the true lunatic?
...
FELLOW TRAVELER'S VOICE (o.s.) It's obscene, all the violence, all the lunacy. Shootings even at airports now. You might say...we're the next endangered species...human beings!
CLOSE ON DR. PETERS, smiling affably, turning to his neighbor.
DR. PETERS I think you're right. sir. I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Quote: Evenbob

he's misinformed or uninformed about everything.

Is your friend you?

Quote: 1nickelmiracle

Is your friend you?

You misunderstand. I've had a computer since
1991. My friend has never had a computer. He
has no idea whats going on if he doesn't see
on Tom Brokaw's show. He doesn't even have a
newspaper. Its frustrating talking to him because
he has so many gaps in his knowledge. He has
two college degree's yet I think computers
intimidate him. Too bad..

Quote: Evenbob

He has no idea whats going on if he doesn't see on Tom Brokaw's show..

I thought that Tom Brokaw only did guest appearances these days.

For the computer phobic, I would think a kindle would be the easiest way to get magazines and news easily.