New high capacity airplanes

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December 27th, 2017 at 10:20:26 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
Quote: Nareed
I wonder if an A322 is a good idea for anyone.


It may not be possible to stretch the design another 20'.
A319neo (111 ft)
A320neo (123 ft 3 in)
A321neo (146 ft)

But my point is that an A321neo costs US$127 million and as of 30 November 2017 has 1,496 orders.

For that you can get 39 rows of 6 across where 39*6=234. Spirit airlines subtracts 6 seats to give two rows of big seats and two seats for flight attendants for 228 seats in basically a single class configuration

If the B797 has one of two possible configurations
39 rows * 7 across =273 seats
34 rows * 8 across =272 seats
and it costs an extra $100 million and has to deal with greater wind area.
It is also expected to have an extra 1000-1200 nmi of range

I just don't see what the big attraction is that the B797 is going to outsell A321neo by more than double.

They are talking about deliveries for B797 in 2027. So it remains to be seen if Airbus is going to counter in the next decade.

The USA airlines have already placed firm orders for 276 A321neos which are likely to grow in the next decade.

100 | 23 January 2013 American Airlines
100 | 14 December 2017 Delta Air Lines
60 | 27 October 2011 JetBlue
16 | 25 March 2013 Hawaiian Airlines

I don't think the B757 and B767 are going to last 10 more years for USA fleets.

Count age Models in the USA airlines fleet (4 airlines)
238 19.9 Boeing 757
163 20.3 Boeing 767
173 14.4 Boeing 777
68 2.2 Boeing 787
90 8.6 Airbus A330
5 0.3 Airbus A350


But what really matters in ten years is sales inside the circle which is less than 5000 nmi in diameter where half the world lives.
December 28th, 2017 at 6:47:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 344
Posts: 12473
Quote: Pacomartin
It may not be possible to stretch the design another 20'.


I thought an A322 would be a chronic tail-striker.

Quote:
I just don't see what the big attraction is that the B797 is going to outsell A321neo by more than double.


It depends what plane Boeing spits out. Oil won't remain low forever. The increased drag can perhaps be made up with a lighter design using composites. A superior passenger experience could help, but not as much as one would hope.

Consider spending 6 hours inside a narrow body. Even in a fully padded seat with decent leg room, you're going to wind up exhausted. On a wide body you can at least move around a bit, and find places to hang out by the lavatories and galleys. But for such things to have much of an impact, people need to start caring about what plane they fly in (people other than aviation enthusiasts).

That said, my worst flight ever was on a wide body. But that's a different story.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
December 28th, 2017 at 12:30:31 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 798
Posts: 9522
Quote: Nareed
It depends what plane Boeing spits out. Oil won't remain low forever. The increased drag can perhaps be made up with a lighter design using composites. A superior passenger experience could help, but not as much as one would hope.


I did read one Boeing executive who said that they tried to match the fuel economy of the 787 to the 777. One test seems to confirm that design goal where the 777 burns more fuel, but the fuel burn per seat is identical.

They said that their goal will be to try and match the economy with the NMA .

2003 Boeing 777-300ER: 344 seats (30.4 lb/mi) (76 mpg‑per seat)
2013 Boeing 787-9: 291 seats (25.5 lb/mi) (76 mpg‑per seat)
2016 Airbus A321NeoLR: 154 seats (10.6 lb/mi) (97 mpg‑per seat)

If that is the case the fuel economy of the A321NeoLR is much better but with a much smaller passenger load.

I am skeptical.

Even though the production line hasn't restarted on the 767-300ER it is still on Boeing's price list. It is much closer to the price of the cheapest twin aisle jet than to the price of the most expensive single aisle jet.

$124.7 737 MAX 10
$201.4 767-300ER
$203.7 767-300 Freighter
$229.5 787-8
http://www.boeing.com/company/about-bca/

$127.0 A321neo
$233.8 A330-200
http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2017/01/2017-price-adjustment-for-airbus-modern-fuel-efficient-aircraft.html

Adjusting for 10 years of inflation, if the NMA is priced at $201 million, I don't think it offers enough improvement over the A321neo.

Orders for the neo's are approaching the ceo levels.

New Engine Options
51 A319neo
3691 A320neo
1512 A321neo
5254 total

Current Engine Options
80 A318
1484 A319ceo
4742 A320ceo
1793 A321ceo
8099 total


4,065 Boeing 737 max (all variants). Almost 23% under the Airbus single aisle neo orders.
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