Malaysian Jet

No worse than some of the others I'd say. Hard so far to get enough consistent facts to prove/disprove any of these.

Some more info. Some has been reported; some I happen to know.

The climb to 45.000 then descent to 19,000 is a false report, generated by scatter (reflected targets appearing in a different quadrant than their actual position) for a sweep or two. Known problem around water and other reflective surfaces, premature unsubstantiated information leaked for unknown reasons, now known to be demonstrably false.

The type of radar in use (very typical radar btw, used by US and others) does not have independent/passive altitude reporting available. Altitudes are reported by transponders.

The FMS was re-programmed with the flight plan that resulted in the turn prior to losing signal with the cockpit. It was manually entered prior to the last ACARS report, but not executed until after that report. It was underway prior to the last ATC acknowledged transmission. The cockpit transponder was manually turned off.

Thailand now believes they have a radar return that is the lost aircraft. When asked why they withheld that information until today, they said "Nobody asked us."

India has very primitive tracking procedures. Not sure what radar systems they use, but they have one controller per flight (ooooh, just imagine; I often was working 20 or more at once) who follows that aircraft through different sectors; kind of like playing man-to-man D when the US and others use a zone. This is an ideal situation for India to have an untracked target pass completely through their airspace without detection; nobody's watching for suspect targets.

I continue to maintain; that aircraft is not down. It has been landed somewhere for future use. I think it most likely that it's on a private island in the Indian Ocean with a suitable landing strip. There are many Asian billionaires these days; it would be nothing for them to flatten an island 1 1/2 miles long into a runway that could accept a B777. I don't think the people are dead yet. If on an island, it would be a simple thing to provide fuel and sustenance from a ship, if it could get anywhere near shore. The Captain is the most likely perpetrator, and he is a fanatical follower of the democratic and non-violent opposition to the current Malaysian gov't. Last paragraph All IMVHO.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I continue to maintain; that aircraft is not down. It has been landed somewhere for future use. I think it most likely that it's on a private island in the Indian Ocean with a suitable landing strip. There are many Asian billionaires these days; it would be nothing for them to flatten an island 1 1/2 miles long into a runway that could accept a B777. I don't think the people are dead yet. If on an island, it would be a simple thing to provide fuel and sustenance from a ship, if it could get anywhere near shore. The Captain is the most likely perpetrator, and he is a fanatical follower of the democratic and non-violent opposition to the current Malaysian gov't. Last paragraph All IMVHO.

Wanna bet? And why wouldn't the billionaire just buy a plane?

Bet offer..... I say plane has not landed safely somewhere, you say it has. $10. If no answer that is acceptable to both of us by April 25, the bet is voided.
You on girl?

Quote: beachbumbabs

The FMS was re-programmed with the flight plan that resulted in the turn prior to losing signal with the cockpit. It was manually entered prior to the last ACARS report, but not executed until after that report. It was underway prior to the last ATC acknowledged transmission. The cockpit transponder was manually turned off.

IF there was no rapid descent to lower altitudes then there was no onboard fire.

ACARS reports are grouped in a suspense window of sixty seconds prior to being sent to the cockpit in one of three priority modes.

A manually turned off transponder is strange, no pilot would do that unless forced to do so by a highjacker or he himself has become one. A pilot might however trip a circuit breaker to turn a transponder off in a mad attempt to trip everything to off and isolate any smoke/plastic producing part of the panel.

What if the missing Malaysia plane is never found?

Quote: What if the missing Malaysia plane is never found?

A GPS system might not have solved the mystery of Flight 370, which disappeared March 8 while flying from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing. But it would probably have given searchers a better read on the plane's last known location, Thomas said.

"There are lots of reasons why they haven't changed, but the major one is cost," he said. "The next-generation technology would cost $70 to $80 billion in the U.S."

What's up with $70 - $80 billion? This isn't the 19th century. How much could it possibly cost to have some kind of procedure where if critical systems cease functioning an open voice line to the cockpit and cabin commences until the issue is resolved. The pilots and rest of the crew have to respond to certain coded questions to determine if they are under duress. If nobody answers than you can begin tracking the jet from that moment.

Quote: Pacomartin

"There are lots of reasons why they haven't changed, but the major one is cost," he said. "The next-generation technology would cost $70 to $80 billion in the U.S

What's up with $70 - $80 billion?

Pretty sure the general public could brainstorm ideas that would work and cost significantly less.

Quote: rxwine

Pretty sure the general public could brainstorm ideas that would work and cost significantly less.

When Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates gutted several high-profile military acquisition programs in April 2009, critics said each of the 23 proposed presidential helicopters would have cost more than the converted 747 jumbo jets that serve as Air Force One.

Imagine, each of 23 helicopters that keep the president safe and in communication for up to 15 minutes at a time, costing more than Air Force One, where he spends 15 hours at a time with a full staff.

The general public can always brainstorm ideas that would cost significantly less.

What is significantly missing from this timeline is exactly how many hours after the transponder was turned off did they realize that the plane had vanished? Did it take 4 hours until the plane was about to land? Did it take 10 minutes?

If a transponder goes off, and you make voice contact and ask the pilot, copilot, and three people on the staff to recite their three digit code and three of them are wrong, you can assume that they are being hijacked by someone. Naturally, ground cannot react to the numbers as you don't want someone shot for tripping the alarm. If staff can't return a voice message, then you have an idea that something is very wrong.

That kind of fail-safe procedure should cost $20 billion to implement at least.

Four Australian military planes reach search area but encounter poor visibility 2350 kilometers South West of Perth Australia.

Objects were spotted by satellite image analysis as possible metal objects bobbing in the water. Australian authorities commented that it could well be shipping containers from a container ship but it was a very promising lead.

Quote: SOOPOO

Wanna bet? And why wouldn't the billionaire just buy a plane?

Bet offer..... I say plane has not landed safely somewhere, you say it has. $10. If no answer that is acceptable to both of us by April 25, the bet is voided.
You on girl?

SOOPOO,

I accept. I don't know where it is or why it was taken, but I think it's landed somewhere. $10. :)

Quote: Pacomartin

What if the missing Malaysia plane is never found?

Quote: What if the missing Malaysia plane is never found?

A GPS system might not have solved the mystery of Flight 370, which disappeared March 8 while flying from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing. But it would probably have given searchers a better read on the plane's last known location, Thomas said.

"There are lots of reasons why they haven't changed, but the major one is cost," he said. "The next-generation technology would cost $70 to $80 billion in the U.S."

What's up with $70 - $80 billion? This isn't the 19th century. How much could it possibly cost to have some kind of procedure where if critical systems cease functioning an open voice line to the cockpit and cabin commences until the issue is resolved. The pilots and rest of the crew have to respond to certain coded questions to determine if they are under duress. If nobody answers than you can begin tracking the jet from that moment.

That's the total amount for the FAA to transition to NEXTGEN technology, which involves GPS, ADS-B, and a host of other acronyms. The operating budget of the entire FAA per FY is around 14-15B. The NEXTGEN money is on top of that, and is highly susceptible to budget tides; each year's money keeps getting spent fast to get things started, then stalled for political and financial reasons. And the price keeps going up as they keep personnel and equipment in place waiting for this CR to pass or that component to get green-lighted. Projection was for 10 years, starting in about 2008; I think they're about 2 years in, 6 years later. It's pretty ugly.

There are things that could be done now, but aren't. The area they're searching has the least amount of satellite coverage of practically anywhere on Earth, but there would be enough that at least 2 GPS satellites could have tracked that airplane. What they didn't do, what nobody does (and I don't know why), is to place a transponder in the cargo area or the empennage (inaccessible in flight) on its own independent battery back-up (main power for normal operation), using Mode-S, which allows 8 digit codes (there are only 4096 discrete codes available in Mode-A, what we're using now; 1960's technology) and the idea was to make those codes individual to each aircraft on a permanent assignment basis worldwide. Then the pilots or any other person trying to smuggle/hijack/whatever would not be able to kill that signal and the aircraft could be tracked.

Again, cost considerations are huge, though not on the magnitude of the full NEXTGEN transition. But there could be rulemaking for commercial aircraft, requiring them to have this passive system. I thought it would be forced on aviation after 9-11, because we lost those aircraft due to transponder discontinuance, and we do not ever want that to happen again. However, politics and lobbying from various factions kept that from happening. And most commercial aircraft transponders are Mode-S capable. But the only system everyone's on right now, including ATC, is Mode-A, so that's how it's still being done.