Is it over?

Quote: Nareed

You're on (I trust you to pay faster). My $100 against your $350 if Romney wins.

Done.

Quote: Wizard

Done.

BTW, this does not include my soul. Next year I was planning to get yours in exchange for Spanish lessons ;)

And I would be willing to defer payment til WoVCon ]I[ or my next trip to Vegas.

Quote: Nareed

BTW, this does not include my soul. Next year I was planning to get yours in exchange for Spanish lessons ;)

We already made a bet for your soul when you were last here. I don't recall what I put up, but I think I paid in advance.

Quote:

And I would be willing to defer payment til WoVCon ]I[ or my next trip to Vegas.

Let's do that.

Quote: FarFromVegas

This is what should be reported instead of news polls. It's easier to be clear-eyed if there's money on the line! If they really thought Romney was ahead like those polls EB loves so much seem to indicate, he'd be the one favored.

What you have to remember is that this is a betting line, not a poll based on science. As we all know, lines are made to even out the action and are not an indicator of who is how much better. My guess here is more Obama fans want to wager on their boy, Romney fans not as big of bettors. And more bettors seem to believe a guy being behind by 1-2 points in most polls somehow is going to be a winning candidate.

Quote: AZDuffman

What you have to remember is that this is a betting line, not a poll based on science. As we all know, lines are made to even out the action and are not an indicator of who is how much better. My guess here is more Obama fans want to wager on their boy, Romney fans not as big of bettors. And more bettors seem to believe a guy being behind by 1-2 points in most polls somehow is going to be a winning candidate.

People don't want to put money on a losing cause. Betting lines have to present a realistic outcome or no one would place a bet. The lines indicate a likely outcome and are adjusted frequently to reflect the likely outcome.

Quote: AZDuffman

What you have to remember is that this is a betting line, not a poll based on science. As we all know, lines are made to even out the action and are not an indicator of who is how much better. My guess here is more Obama fans want to wager on their boy, Romney fans not as big of bettors. And more bettors seem to believe a guy being behind by 1-2 points in most polls somehow is going to be a winning candidate.

The only way you can possibly come to the conclusion that Obama is behind in most polls is if you blatantly ignore the polls that disagree with you.

Quote: Wizard

Yes, that is what you would get at Pinnacle. Personally, I'll give you $350. I'm sure every Internet sports book will take action all day. I tend to think Pinnacle will keep their window open until the first state closes voting.

Remember, your soul is also riding on this.

Hello Michael! Can I play, too, leaving my soul out of it? We've communicated a few times over the years, and besides I *always* follow your commandment number two! Let me know!

I love xkcd's comic from 4 years ago:

Quote: title text

Someday I'll be rich enough to hire Nate Silver to help make all my life decisions. 'Should I sleep with her?' 'Well, I'm showing a 35% chance it will end badly.'

http://xkcd.com/500/

Quote: Wizard

We already made a bet for your soul when you were last here. I don't recall what I put up, but I think I paid in advance.

As I recall, I lost my soul fair and square with the Packers/Steelers Superbowl. Then I got it back in exchange for Spanish lessons. But it really doesn't matter since you have both documents giving you posession, including the line in "blood" red :)

Finally it ends today!

I've got to wonder whether political junkies don't get tired of so many months of campaigns. I would love a longer football season (though that doesn't seem possible), but I would get fed-up if it went on for 18+ months or so. Imagine taking months of games just to see who will play the regular season!