Is it over?

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November 7th, 2012 at 9:03:11 AM permalink
s2dbaker
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 13
Posts: 241
Quote: AZDuffman
What you have to remember is that this is a betting line, not a poll based on science. As we all know, lines are made to even out the action and are not an indicator of who is how much better. My guess here is more Obama fans want to wager on their boy, Romney fans not as big of bettors. And more bettors seem to believe a guy being behind by 1-2 points in most polls somehow is going to be a winning candidate.
Interesting analysis. How did that turn out?
November 7th, 2012 at 9:58:49 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: s2dbaker
Interesting analysis. How did that turn out?


Turned out with an economy expected to tank in 2013 under higher taxes and draconian regulations. Dow down 300 already.
The President is a fink.
November 8th, 2012 at 3:25:44 PM permalink
MonkeyMonkey
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 0
Posts: 111
Quote: AZDuffman
Turned out with an economy expected to tank in 2013 under higher taxes and draconian regulations. Dow down 300 already.


I hope I'm naive (well, I'm sure I am, but especially in this case) but it often feels to me like the economy is more of a feeling that we all collectively contribute to. By that I mean, everytime there's a "recession" for a couple months before I really see it get going all I hear on the news is about the coming recession. Then when it's finally over, there's all this talk beforehand about recovery. It almost seems to me that we talk ourselves into and out of these situations. I mention this because Obama getting re-elected could possibly mean that quite a few people believe in him and that may be enough to avoid economic catastrophe. I understand that there are real forces at work on markets, etc. But aren't those forces really just the manifestation of how people feel?

Anyway, just looking for the silver lining here, and hoping for the best. If I were absolutely honest and completely cynical* I'd probably agree with you 100%.

* Not that I'm saying you're completely cynical, it's more of a self-reflection thing for me. I've gone through several cynical cycles and have found that they don't serve me very well in the end, thus I try to avoid falling into them.
World's most discriminating Kool-Aid connoisseur
November 8th, 2012 at 3:58:53 PM permalink
DocZZZ
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 0
Posts: 12
Quote: AZDuffman
Turned out with an economy expected to tank in 2013 under higher taxes and draconian regulations. Dow down 300 already.


Add another 120 today. Gee, what a surprise. Probably even out for a while until the next time they have to raise the debt ceiling....
November 8th, 2012 at 4:00:01 PM permalink
s2dbaker
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 13
Posts: 241
Quote: AZDuffman
Turned out with an economy expected to tank in 2013 under higher taxes and draconian regulations. Dow down 300 already.
Well, if your analytic ability is consistent then the economy will be in great shape.
November 17th, 2012 at 7:21:20 AM permalink
s2dbaker
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 13
Posts: 241
Ah, good times :)

Remember back on election day when Dick Morris an unnamed source said that the internal polling from Obama's camp showed Michigan and New Hampshire in a tie? It turns out that Obama won Michigan by over 9 points and New Hampshire by nearly 6. Dick The unnamed source also said that they had conceded Florida to Romney, I wonder how that worked out for him.
November 18th, 2012 at 8:26:53 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: MonkeyMonkey
I hope I'm naive (well, I'm sure I am, but especially in this case) but it often feels to me like the economy is more of a feeling that we all collectively contribute to.


Consumer Confidence is considered by most economists a palpable phenomena, and there are many attempts to measure it.

An economic professor used to talk about the "What the Hell" economic theory. He said people are known to go into a state where they predict the end of everything, so they decide to go out in a blaze of glory. On a smaller scale financiers are very worried about you having "too much credit". They worry that you will become depressed and spend yourself into a hole where you can never recover.
November 19th, 2012 at 4:49:46 PM permalink
s2dbaker
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 13
Posts: 241
The Daily Currant gets the scoop on what Chris Christie really thinks about Mitt Romney.
November 19th, 2012 at 7:26:07 PM permalink
AcesAndEights
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 6
Posts: 351
Quote: s2dbaker
The Daily Currant gets the scoop on what Chris Christie really thinks about Mitt Romney.

Did he really drop the F-bomb? In a TV interview? I find that hard to believe. Searching for outside confirmation...
"You think I'm joking." -EvenBob
November 19th, 2012 at 7:27:04 PM permalink
AcesAndEights
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 6
Posts: 351
Hahaha, okay, joke's on me. I had never heard of the Daily Currant before today.
"You think I'm joking." -EvenBob
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