Airport reviews

July 28th, 2014 at 9:58:37 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 10008
Quote: Pacomartin
I don't know what percentage of Aeroméxico international customers are going to USA


Most. Though they use small planes, they run several flights a day to most US destinations, but just one per day to Europe, South America and Asia.

Quote:
Southwest Airlines is taking over the Air Tran flights to Cancun and Cabo San Lucas/Los Cabos on August 10, 2014 and Mexico City on November 2, 2014. It is not clear if they will begin aggressively expanding in Mexico in future years.


They were working with Volaris for a while two years ago. I don't know if that's still going on. Through the Voalris site it wasn't easy to book Southwest, though (you can pay Volaris without a credit card at any number of places).
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
July 28th, 2014 at 5:14:15 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 648
Posts: 7425
Quote: Nareed
They were working with Volaris for a while two years ago. I don't know if that's still going on. Through the Voalris site it wasn't easy to book Southwest, though (you can pay Volaris without a credit card at any number of places).


The Volaris Southwest partnership last a little over 2 years. But when Southwest bought AirTran they inherited some international routes. So Southwest is ending it's longstanding vow to not go international.

Well if the three Mexican airlines acquire 158 Airbus jets in the next three years and retire only 11 older jets, they have to use them somewhere. Essentially that is enough jets to carry the entire passenger load that US airlines flew to Mexico in 2013 (15,853,447 psgrs). Either they are going to have to develop new markets in the USA, Central and South America , increase the domestic passenger load, or take on some of the American airlines for passengers flying into Mexico.

Starting in 2018 AeroMexico is acquiring their own new fleet of 60 Boeing 737 Max's.

Essentially you are talking about doubling the seat capacity of Mexican airlines in five years.
July 28th, 2014 at 5:32:33 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 10008
Quote: Pacomartin
Well if the three Mexican airlines acquire 158 Airbus jets in the next three years and retire only 11 older jets, they have to use them somewhere.


Cool.

One of the free Mcpapers handed out on the streets, so the information may not be reliable, carried an item about a high-speed train form Mex City to Queretaro. Unlike the highspeed boondoggle to Toluca, this one makes sense (though the station may not be well located). The trip to Queretaro is 2-2.5 hours by car, assuming you go over the speed limit in a few stretches. I've done as much as 3 hours, due to traffic in the exit from Queretaro (lots of truck traffic).

The note also said there are long-term plans to extend the line to Guadalajara (semi-reasonable) and Monterrey (LONG train trip even at high speed), with "spurs" to Guanajuato, Leon and Celaya. The line to Monterrey would go through San Luis Potosí (this makes sense as the highway route does just that).

Now, the speed mentioned is 300 kmh. That would put Queretaro at about 1 hour (assuming some stops), Guadalajara about 2 hours, Leon under 2 hours, Monterrey about 3.5 hours (that's about how long it takes to fly to Vegas from Mex City).

If the train offers much, much lower prices than the airlines, it could take a chunk of business away from them.

IMO, the era fo rail travel is past. But I'm willing to be proved wrong.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
July 29th, 2014 at 2:13:58 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 648
Posts: 7425
Quote: Nareed
If the train offers much, much lower prices than the airlines, it could take a chunk of business away from them.


The SCT announced on July 27 that it has issued an international invitation to tender for contracts to construct a high-speed line linking Buenavista station in Mexico City and Queretaro.
length: 210km
max speed: 300km/h
expected ridership: 23,000 passengers per day with a
journey time of around 59 minutes (unknown intermediate stops)
SCT says construction will start by the end of the year and commercial services are expected to begin in the second half of 2017.


XpressWest is designed for no intermediate stops.
length: 299km
max speed: 240km/h
expected ridership: 13,700 passengers per day with a
journey time of around 84 minutes.

I doubt that it will take any air business. For starters everyone aims for 300 km/hr but inevitably they settle for slower

Del Bajio is 304 air kilometers from Mexico City so the train may not make it that far for decades. BJX sends 38% of it's passengers to Mexico City Airport. If they have a decent rail service, they may simply get more international business as the region develops more.

Video on the Toluca train



A suburban train to share a station in Buenovista with high speed rail
July 29th, 2014 at 7:51:41 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 10008
Quote: Pacomartin
journey time of around 59 minutes (unknown intermediate stops)


At the least it would stop at Tepotzotlan. Buses running to Queretaro and Guanajuato stop there, too (there is a tiny bus station there). I don't think there would be any other stops.

Quote:
I doubt that it will take any air business. For starters everyone aims for 300 km/hr but inevitably they settle for slower


Right. Plus the stops means starting and stopping,w hich brings the average speed lower still.

Quote:
Del Bajio is 304 air kilometers from Mexico City so the train may not make it that far for decades. BJX sends 38% of it's passengers to Mexico City Airport. If they have a decent rail service, they may simply get more international business as the region develops more.


I make about 3.5-4 hours to Guanajuato driving from my house. If I flew I'd make about the same time. Consider 30-45 minutes to the airport, 1.5-2 hours at the airport, 30 minutes trip time, 15 minutes at least at the other airport, 45 minutes from the airport to where I'm going.

The bus does about 45 minutes longer than I, plus the travel time to the station. A high speed train could be a better deal, but I doubt it.

Monterrey is about 10 hours or longer by car. 1 hour by plane, plus airport times. High speed rail might also be a good option, but again I doubt it.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
July 29th, 2014 at 10:41:26 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 648
Posts: 7425
Quote: Nareed
At the least it would stop at Tepotzotlan. Buses running to Queretaro and Guanajuato stop there, too (there is a tiny bus station there). I don't think there would be any other stops.


I've read of a second stop at Tula

Quote: Nareed
The bus does about 45 minutes longer than I, plus the travel time to the station. A high speed train could be a better deal, but I doubt it.

Monterrey is about 10 hours or longer by car. 1 hour by plane, plus airport times. High speed rail might also be a good option, but again I doubt it.


I could see it going another 100 km to Irapuato, but I seriously doubt that you will live to see a train to Guadalajara or Monterrey. The corridor from Medellin to south of Cancun airport is also getting a lot of attention. Also Monterrey to San Antonio TX. The ability to take care of your documentation onboard the train to avoid a long border crossing might be a powerful incentive to build a train link.

But keep in mind, how many stories we've hear in the USA over the last few decades. The 85-mile Tampa-to-Orlando segment, on which trains would travel as fast as 170 miles per hour, was to be the showpiece of President Obama's initiative — in part because the government already owned much of the right-of-way along the route, which would allow it to be built relatively quickly, and because the fast-moving train would contrast with slow-moving traffic along Interstate 4. In addition nearly every stop had a tourist attraction so that it would be funded primarily by out of state visitors.
July 29th, 2014 at 1:57:36 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 10008
Quote: Pacomartin
I've read of a second stop at Tula


Going by the highway route, Tula is some kilometers way from it. That would be quite a detour.

Quote:
I could see it going another 100 km to Irapuato, but I seriously doubt that you will live to see a train to Guadalajara or Monterrey.


The whole state of Guanajuato is nowhere near the route to either Guadalajara or Monterrey. But it's clsoe to Queretaro. Extending that line that way makes sense. For the other cities, different lines would be required.

Quote:
But keep in mind, how many stories we've hear in the USA over the last few decades.


Sure. In North america, including Mexico, the only successful passenger trains are subways, and a few routes on closely packed cities and suburbs in the Northeast. Elsewhere such projects just fail to even get started. The highway networks are good and there's suffcient air travel.

Now, if air travel congestion isn't eased somehow, so that it becomes common for a 45 minute flight to require 4+ hours of time, a train that can do it in 4-6 hours begins to look better. If the train doesn't make so many stops it takes 6-8 hours, that is, and if the price is comeptitive with the airlines.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
July 29th, 2014 at 3:55:52 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 648
Posts: 7425
Quote: Nareed
Going by the highway route, Tula is some kilometers way from it. That would be quite a detour.


The SCT announced that the projected train route is expected to include 15 tunnels with an average length of 800 meters, some more, mainly near San Juan del Río and Tula.

Quote: Nareed
Now, if air travel congestion isn't eased somehow, so that it becomes common for a 45 minute flight to require 4+ hours of time, a train that can do it in 4-6 hours begins to look better. If the train doesn't make so many stops it takes 6-8 hours, that is, and if the price is competitive with the airlines.


The goal in Southern California is much more modest. They want to get the average speed up to 60 mph (including time spent at the stops). Ideally, I think they want to cut down the air traffic from Santa Barbara and San Diego that overtaxes the runways at LAX. If people could be persuaded to take the train to the airport it would help a lot.

I count 163 narrow body planes over 100 passengers in Mexico plus an assortment of regional aircraft. The new crop of widebodies will partly go to replacing the old Boeing 767's and open up some transoceanic routes. (Boeing 767 ages in Aeromexico fleet 15.7 Years, 19.3 Years, 21.0 Years, 23.5 Years, 24.2 Years, 24.3 Years).

Do you think Mexico will be able to double it's fleet and absorb all those new seats? Keep in mind that they are only retiring 14 Boeing 737-300's from Viva aerobus, and some of those might get picked up by Magnicharter.


  1. Volaris and Airbus finalize largest aircraft order in Mexican history (44 Airbus) 12 Jan 2012
  2. Grupo Aeromexico Finalizes Order For Boeing 737-8 MAX And 737-9 MAX Aircraft - The contract was signed for the purchase of up to (90 aircraft). 6 Nov 2012
  3. Interjet signs purchase agreement (40 A320neo) 13 Nov 2012
  4. VivaAerobus signs purchase agreement (52 A320-family aircraft); largest Airbus order in Latam 22 Oct 2013

    NOTE: The Boeing 737-300 flown by Magnicharter and Vivaaerobus is an old jet, but Southwest still is flying more than 120 of them. Southwest is not going to completely retire them until the year 2020. But most airlines have retired them because of fuel efficiency.
July 30th, 2014 at 4:42:00 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 301
Posts: 10008
Quote: Pacomartin
Do you think Mexico will be able to double it's fleet and absorb all those new seats?


No idea.

The widebodies are exclusive for long trips abroad. Pretty much everything from Canada to Central America can and is covered by planes in the A-320/B-737 class. This will continue because either 1) there are so few passengers they can cover it with such planes (or even smaller ones), or 2) there are so many apssengers they would rahter offer a variety of flight schedules to acommodate their needs.

Aeromexico once flew DC-10s to NYC. Some might have continued on to Madrid or Paris, but at least one flight headed straight back to Mex City. Now they fly B-737s only. Mexicana at one time flew a DC-10 Mex City-Monterrey-Chicago. it dind't last long (I flew it to Monterrey once).

BTW I feel like I've mentioned and explained all this before, sort of like we're talking in circles.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
July 30th, 2014 at 7:18:44 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 648
Posts: 7425
Quote: Nareed
BTW I feel like I've mentioned and explained all this before, sort of like we're talking in circles.


There really are two questions. We did discuss this extensively as to what parts of the world will now be accessible to nonstops from Mexico City .with new wide-bodies. The 5 Boeing 777's, and 16-20 787 wide-bodies acquired by Aeromexico will partly be offset by retiring 6 aging wide-bodies of Boeing 767 class. Aeromexico did announce that some of them would be used domestically and on flights to NYC. I know that it seems silly, but it is partly a prestige run. You can sell a lot more business class seats. Ultimately it is expensive to use them on such short runs. But wide-bodies will ultimately increase exposure in Asia and Europe.

Quote: Mexico City, August 21, 2013. – Aeromexico
Mexico’s global airline, today presented its first Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner ... The Aeromexico Boeing 787-8 will be used to serve certain domestic routes within Mexico in October, followed by service on the Mexico City-Tokyo, Japan route on October 14th, 2013. The second and third B787-8 airplanes Aeroméxico will receive this year, of a total of 19, will be used to operate the routes between Mexico City and New York and Mexico City and Paris as of October and November, respectively.


The secondary question is the market created by the acquisition of such a large number of single aisle jets. Easily enough to double the domestic passenger load. Mexicans take an estimated 2.7 billion intercity bus rides each year, according to government data, making Mexico one of the biggest markets for bus travel in the world. In contrast, they take about 32 million domestic air flights last year.

At least one airline is owned by a conglomerate which is primarily a bus company.