In The News Today...

Quote: AZDuffman

The armed guard at every school is really a silly thing. Most schools have no need, and when a shooter is somewhere a guard is not then we will hear we need two, three, four........

All for a very small problem when you get down to it.

That is exactly why we should arm the students. If every student had a gun I doubt the suspect in this case would have killed seventeen before return fire happened.

Quote: boymimbo

Your insensitivity is unconscionable. Tell the citizens of Sandy Hook or the citizens of Parkland, FL that it's a very small problem.
I guess 9/11 was a very small problem, too.

Two random schools in a nation of how many? I said it before and will again, any child is 197 times more likely to commit suicide than to die in a school shooting. And the school shooters are usually just a form of suicide-by-cop.

As to 9/11, liberals keep saying muslims are not a problem because of the small number of deaths since then. They ignore the other problems muslims are causing, but they downplay the violence they want to downplay.

So what are we going to do, have an armed guard hanging around at the front door, getting fat because he just sits there all day, every day? Then again, our schools are run like minimum security prisons as it is, why not one more thing?

Quote: Face

Ever been to a casino without armed guards...

You did ask Face. The security guards you see in the Canadian casinos I frequent are not carrying. I am sure some of them are able to but they are not on the floor with them on a regular basis. I haven't been around in the middle of the night when they change the cash boxes on the slots so don't know if they carry then. In the daytime when they have a chip fill and change the box on the tables they aren't armed. Their is probably a message in that about the US gun culture. The banks in my small town don't have guards either. Last bank robbery in town a couple of unarmed good samaritans grabbed the robber and his knife and sat on him until the cops arrived.

Quote: boymimbo

Your insensitivity is unconscionable. Tell the citizens of Sandy Hook or the citizens of Parkland, FL that it's a very small problem.
I guess 9/11 was a very small problem, too.

What you find unconscionable I find as merely a statement of truth.

It does require a whole lot of emotional paring, sure. It's much like my self defense stuff, which I just got done doing. You see active violence right on camera, and you do have a visceral reaction. You're altogether mad enough to spit, compelled to DO SOMETHING right this instant, and left feeling that what you just saw is just too much. It's EVERYWHERE.

But then you settle down. You have to, or else the world would be nothing but vigilante-ism. And when you do, horrible as it looks in print, you realize there are literally hundreds of things much more worse and much more widespread than even this seemingly worst case situation.

It doesn't mean do nothing, surely. But it also doesn't mean jumping over rational and meaningful thought to just get to an action.

FWIW, my own son was locked in this week. 3 different cases of shooting threats. And his was just one of 3 schools that locked down, all unrelated to each other. Oh, and I think the Patriot Act is a travesty that only served to accomplish Bin Laden's mission. 9/11 was on a level I can't even compare it to. But flying planes into buildings? That's not a "very small problem". It's downright sub-atomic.

Quote: kenarman

You did ask Face. The security guards you see in the Canadian casinos I frequent are not carrying. I am sure some of them are able to but they are not on the floor with them on a regular basis. I haven't been around in the middle of the night when they change the cash boxes on the slots so don't know if they carry then. In the daytime when they have a chip fill and change the box on the tables they aren't armed. Their is probably a message in that about the US gun culture. The banks in my small town don't have guards either. Last bank robbery in town a couple of unarmed good samaritans grabbed the robber and his knife and sat on him until the cops arrived.

I did. Ours don't carry, either. In fact, I likely would have reconsidered my employment had they been doling out firearms to those simpletons. But we did have 5-0 on-site 24/7, and they all sure had their Glocks.

'Course I wasn't considering CAN / MEX in this. I always picture an RCMP sitting on his horse next to the bill counter machine. I suspect if an armed assailant ever wanted to tip it over, a simple "Please, don't" would quash the entire situation, and then everyone would break for mandatory poutine intake. I guess you're experiencing a little social deterioration yourself, if you've reached the point of having to sit on folks. Shame =/

Quote: Face

What you find unconscionable I find as merely a statement of truth.

It does require a whole lot of emotional paring, sure. It's much like my self defense stuff, which I just got done doing. You see active violence right on camera, and you do have a visceral reaction. You're altogether mad enough to spit, compelled to DO SOMETHING right this instant, and left feeling that what you just saw is just too much. It's EVERYWHERE.

REQUEST TO WIZARD OR OTHER MATH GUYS HERE.

We look at these things the wrong way. I would like to request Michael or anyone else with the stat math chops to flip the stats, and tell us how to do it on our own, please. Taking the stats on school shootings and number of students, how many years would an average, random kid go to school before they were a victim? How many until their school was but not them injured or wounded?

I bet it is over 10,000 years!

Background: On "The Art of Manliness" podcast they had a free-range mom on as a guest who was just disgusted with the panic-culture we live in. She lets her kids free range around (IOW: lets them behave like we did in the 1970s and before.) Her friends talked about "all those stolen kids" so she said the odds are a million to one, or whatever it is. Then they said, "but what if yours is one of them?" So she got someone to "flip" the stats from one-per-XXX,XXX to how many years it would be if her child walked alone every day until they were snatched. IIRC it was the kid could be outside every day for 250,000 years before it happened.


Wiz, can you show how to do this kind of calculation? Or anyone?

Quote: AZDuffman

REQUEST TO WIZARD OR OTHER MATH GUYS HERE.

We look at these things the wrong way. I would like to request Michael or anyone else with the stat math chops to flip the stats, and tell us how to do it on our own, please. Taking the stats on school shootings and number of students, how many years would an average, random kid go to school before they were a victim? How many until their school was but not them injured or wounded?

I bet it is over 10,000 years!

Background: On "The Art of Manliness" podcast they had a free-range mom on as a guest who was just disgusted with the panic-culture we live in. She lets her kids free range around (IOW: lets them behave like we did in the 1970s and before.) Her friends talked about "all those stolen kids" so she said the odds are a million to one, or whatever it is. Then they said, "but what if yours is one of them?" So she got someone to "flip" the stats from one-per-XXX,XXX to how many years it would be if her child walked alone every day until they were snatched. IIRC it was the kid could be outside every day for 250,000 years before it happened.

"Every year, about 421,000 people are injured in crashes that have involved a driver who was distracted in some way. Each year, over 330,000 accidents caused by texting while driving lead to severe injuries. This means that over 78% of all distracted drivers are distracted because they have been texting while driving.Jan 23, 2015" With over 3300 killed. Texting while driving is still legal in Az.

The solutions always are the same, more gun restriction laws. That is like Babs tag line, taking away honest gun toters guns, and expecting school massacre's to go down' is like drinking poison and expecting someone else to die.

Quote: boymimbo

Your insensitivity is unconscionable. Tell the citizens of Sandy Hook or the citizens of Parkland, FL that it's a very small problem.
I guess 9/11 was a very small problem, too.

Yesterday over 1,000 Africans died from malaria.

I am not diminishing the pain of the families and survivors of Parkland. But if on the same day instead of Parkland, 17 other young innocents lost their lives spread out over the US because of individual gun violence it is a blip on the radar screen in NYC, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, etc...

I am for banning weapons like those used in Sandy Hook, Parkland, etc..., because it is a zero cost, almost zero lifestyle change plan. The number of lives it will save is low, but likely not zero, but I think the inconvenience to gun owners is also low. If the government can prevent me from driving 60mph on an open road, I think banning assault style weapons is less of an inconvenience.

By the way, now "only 400,000" Africans die annually from malaria. I used to use this analogy decades ago when it was over a million a year.

Scientists working at the Smithsonian have discovered the Second Amendment to the US Constitution does NOT in fact read "F** it! I like guns!"

Quote: SOOPOO

Yesterday over 1,000 Africans died from malaria.

I am not diminishing the pain of the families and survivors of Parkland. But if on the same day instead of Parkland, 17 other young innocents lost their lives spread out over the US because of individual gun violence it is a blip on the radar screen in NYC, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, etc...

I am for banning weapons like those used in Sandy Hook, Parkland, etc..., because it is a zero cost, almost zero lifestyle change plan. The number of lives it will save is low, but likely not zero, but I think the inconvenience to gun owners is also low. If the government can prevent me from driving 60mph on an open road, I think banning assault style weapons is less of an inconvenience.

By the way, now "only 400,000" Africans die annually from malaria. I used to use this analogy decades ago when it was over a million a year.

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Math time, kids.

- Number of school days since Sandy Hook (assuming a 180 day school year, 52 weeks - 10 weeks for summer - 2 reading weeks - 2 weeks winter holidays - 10 PE and public holidays) = 930 (5 years + 6 weeks of school). I am not including Sandy Hook in my statistics.

- Public school students: 50.7 million.

138 children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook

138 / 930 = .148387 deaths per school day.

Number of deaths due to gun violence at school expected over a 13 year schooling period (K - 12) = .148387 * 180 * 13 = 348.22

Odds of any particular student getting killed by a gun-wielder at school = 50,700,000 / 348.22 = 1 in 146,014 over their school life.
Odds of dying of a lightning strike over those same 13 years - about 1 in 500,000. (325,000,000 / 50 / 13).
Odds of dying in a terrorist attack on US soil over those same 13 years: (325,000,000 / (103/15) / 13) = 1 in 3,640,777. --> this number is so low likely due to the 100 billion or so a year America spends on making America safe.
Odds of any human born on earth this year dying of starvation during their first 5 years of life (131.4 million live births, 3.1 children under the age of five die from starvation each year) = 1 in 8.48.

So you want to talk priorities?

Lesson: priorities are what one makes of them.

But you are right. School shootings are just in a context of the ridiculous number of people who get killed by gunfire every year in the United States. It bubbles to the top of the headlines once in a while because a large number of people die.

But in other cases of mass death, be it a plane crash, a rash of accidents on a freeway, or a number of killings due to other measures, we do something about it. So I see the outrage as an overreaction, but I also see the daily ho-hum of the daily carnage as an underreaction as well.

Engine falls off a plane? Ground the entire fleet of that class of plane until the cause is found.
Killer bees!? Let's go to the great effort of introducing docile honeybees and interbreeding.
High accident rates on the street? Let's put in a stop sign, traffic strips, or traffic lights to make it safer.
Guy on a shoe tries to light it on fire? Let's make everyone take off their shoes?
Guy tries to light something liquidy? Let's make everyone spend $3 on a bottle of water after security.
Fuel crisis? Let's make everyone drive 55.
Gun deaths? .... nada
Starvation in Africa ... ? people are working on it
Malaria deaths.... ? people are working on it.