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February 22nd, 2018 at 4:18:32 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: Face
What you find unconscionable I find as merely a statement of truth.


How can this be a small problem?

It's not a matter of numbers, but of fear and uncertainty Same as:


Quote:
But flying planes into buildings? That's not a "very small problem". It's downright sub-atomic.


In numbers, of the many tens of millions of flights since, say, the first jets entered service, how many have been crashed into buildings? Seen that way, the problem is subatomic, as in you need a large hadron collider to measure it.

But that would be a myopic way of looking at 9/11 and international terrorism.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
February 22nd, 2018 at 4:39:04 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25010
Quote: boymimbo
.

Math time, kids.
.


Good post. You're smarter than I
gave you credit for. Maybe I'll
pay more attention to your posts.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
February 22nd, 2018 at 5:40:52 PM permalink
petroglyph
Member since: Aug 3, 2014
Threads: 25
Posts: 6227
This is pretty amazing. An armed cop outside the door. So hard to accept that, he never went in. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-22/he-never-went-officer-duty-filmed-doing-nothing-during-florida-shooting
The last official act of any government is to loot the treasury. GW
February 23rd, 2018 at 2:14:52 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18136
Quote: boymimbo
.

Math time, kids.

- Number of school days since Sandy Hook (assuming a 180 day school year, 52 weeks - 10 weeks for summer - 2 reading weeks - 2 weeks winter holidays - 10 PE and public holidays) = 930 (5 years + 6 weeks of school). I am not including Sandy Hook in my statistics.

- Public school students: 50.7 million.

138 children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook

138 / 930 = .148387 deaths per school day.

Number of deaths due to gun violence at school expected over a 13 year schooling period (K - 12) = .148387 * 180 * 13 = 348.22

Odds of any particular student getting killed by a gun-wielder at school = 50,700,000 / 348.22 = 1 in 146,014 over their school life.
Odds of dying of a lightning strike over those same 13 years - about 1 in 500,000. (325,000,000 / 50 / 13).
Odds of dying in a terrorist attack on US soil over those same 13 years: (325,000,000 / (103/15) / 13) = 1 in 3,640,777. --> this number is so low likely due to the 100 billion or so a year America spends on making America safe.
Odds of any human born on earth this year dying of starvation during their first 5 years of life (131.4 million live births, 3.1 children under the age of five die from starvation each year) = 1 in 8.48.


Good math and thanks. One question, though, because I need to share this with someone. Does this mean any given student would have to go to school 146,000 days before they would expect to be killed, or do you figure that some other way?

I also don't quite get what you are doing with the numbers after the 180 days. Nor did we ever have "reading weeks." Is just the 180 days being counted?
The President is a fink.
February 23rd, 2018 at 2:50:30 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: petroglyph
This is pretty amazing. An armed cop outside the door. So hard to accept that, he never went in. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-22/
he-never-went-officer-duty-filmed-doing-nothing-during-florida-shooting
He is paid to confront unruly students, not armed ones. Noise, perhaps some fist fights, perhaps one student with a knife, but that is about it.
February 23rd, 2018 at 2:56:19 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 62
Posts: 7831
Quote: AZDuffman
As to 9/11, liberals keep saying muslims are not a problem because of the small number of deaths since then. They ignore the other problems muslims are causing, but they downplay the violence they want to downplay.
As to 9/11, the question is why was there this orchestrated rush to reward Israel for bring down the world trade center by expending American lives, American dollars and American weapons on making the Middle East safer fro Israel by killing off the various Baby Docs and sending millions of dollars into the shadowy world of mercenaries when most such firms are owned by the Bush Family/Saudi Arabia.

All this talk of hiring more cops when the murder rate has been dropping for decades due largely to the effects of Roe v. Wade, yet there is a constant battle to frustrate abortion seeking women thru legislation and economic coercion. Hire more cops, pay them huge sums to go around staring at teen age girl's tits and giving useless drug lessons. Have them ensnare minor drug dabblers into great felonious conspiracies so police departments can get federal money. Declare a guy who shot his TV a terrorist rather than a dumb drunk.

A few people use cell phones while driving, so we pass laws to force them to take their eyes off the road longer so as to conceal their activity and deaths go up.

We pass revenue raising red light camera legislation and more people die.

One nutcase shoots up a school and there are cries to have every lazy incompetent teacher that foments trouble and frustration in school suddenly carry guns.

Washington liberises its pot laws but judges rule that having pot in the house is exposing children to risks that result in loss of custody.
February 23rd, 2018 at 6:24:46 AM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Mar 25, 2013
Threads: 5
Posts: 732
Quote: AZDuffman
Quote: boymimbo
.

Math time, kids.

- Number of school days since Sandy Hook (assuming a 180 day school year, 52 weeks - 10 weeks for summer - 2 reading weeks - 2 weeks winter holidays - 10 PE and public holidays) = 930 (5 years + 6 weeks of school). I am not including Sandy Hook in my statistics.

- Public school students: 50.7 million.

138 children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook

138 / 930 = .148387 deaths per school day.

Number of deaths due to gun violence at school expected over a 13 year schooling period (K - 12) = .148387 * 180 * 13 = 348.22

Odds of any particular student getting killed by a gun-wielder at school = 50,700,000 / 348.22 = 1 in 146,014 over their school life.
Odds of dying of a lightning strike over those same 13 years - about 1 in 500,000. (325,000,000 / 50 / 13).
Odds of dying in a terrorist attack on US soil over those same 13 years: (325,000,000 / (103/15) / 13) = 1 in 3,640,777. --> this number is so low likely due to the 100 billion or so a year America spends on making America safe.
Odds of any human born on earth this year dying of starvation during their first 5 years of life (131.4 million live births, 3.1 children under the age of five die from starvation each year) = 1 in 8.48.


Good math and thanks. One question, though, because I need to share this with someone. Does this mean any given student would have to go to school 146,000 days before they would expect to be killed, or do you figure that some other way?

I also don't quite get what you are doing with the numbers after the 180 days. Nor did we ever have "reading weeks." Is just the 180 days being counted?


School shootings don't happen on weekends or while students are not in school. Most school years are 180 days long. Really, the calculation is simple but the time period must be over school days, not calendar days.

The calculation is the odds of any student getting killed from gun violence, at school, by someone else, over the length of their school life, which I assume is 13 years. Most students today have a week off in February, so I put the school year at 36 weeks. It might be closer to 38 weeks.

For terrorist attacks, its over the entire year, as is lightning.
February 23rd, 2018 at 8:11:27 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Read this article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/what-i-saw-treating-the-victims-from-parkland-should-change-the-debate-on-guns/553937/

The argument is simple: a high-powered rifle round, like those used by many mass shooters, have a much better chance at causing fatal wounds than a gun. the proof is simple:

Kinetic energy equals 1/2 the mass time the square of the velocity. Getting figure's in a short time wasn't easy, so I'm open to being corrected on that. But the math works out like this:

A 9mm Glock round weighs about 8 grams and has a muzzle velocity of 375 meters per second. 8 grams is 0.008 kilograms. So that's 0.004x375x375= 562.5 kg m^2/s^2.

An Ar-15 round weighs 10 grams and has a muzzle velocity of 1,000 meters per second. So 0.005x1000x1000 = 5,000 kg m^2/s^2

The AR-15 round has ten times the kinetic energy of a 9mm round.

I would really like to hear why such a potent weapon is needed for any lawful purpose by anyone outside the military.

A Glock is deadly enough as it is. A high-power gun like the AR-15 is as close as you get to a sure-kill weapon. Meaning even shots that miss a major organ can be fatal.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
February 23rd, 2018 at 8:56:19 AM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Mar 25, 2013
Threads: 5
Posts: 732
Slippery slope, Nareed. If you ban the AR-45 they're coming for your butter knives next, and worse yet, your soul.
February 23rd, 2018 at 8:59:50 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
Quote: boymimbo
Slippery slope, Nareed. If you ban the AR-45 they're coming for your butter knives next, and worse yet, your soul.


If there is a buy-back program for butter knives, I have plenty I'd willingly sell.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER