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June 13th, 2018 at 12:55:53 PM permalink
ams288
Member since: Apr 21, 2016
Threads: 15
Posts: 3115
Quote: Evenbob
There were some primaries yesterday. And Trump candidates won big. Anti-Trump candidates did not win or win big.


Well, something like 85-90% of Republicans approve of Donald's job performance, so it makes complete sense that Anti-Trump candidates would lose their primaries.
In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion
June 13th, 2018 at 1:59:22 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 200
Posts: 4699
I always think the best political predictor is the betting market. The going odds at Betfair suggest:

GOP majority in Senate: 70.2%
GOP majority in House: 48.3%
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
June 13th, 2018 at 2:55:48 PM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 22
Posts: 966
Quote: Wizard
I always think the best political predictor is the betting market.


How did that work out for your Presidential bets?
June 13th, 2018 at 2:58:25 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15005
Quote: Wizard
I always think the best political predictor is the betting market.


Why, because Betfair was so accurate
in the past? This is 2 days before the
2016 election:

"Currently, the market (Betfair) is saying Clinton has a 78% chance of winning on Tuesday, and Trump has a 22% chance of winning on Tuesday." Clinton was 1.3/1 to win, Trump was 4.5/1

Do we remember how that turned out?
Also, Betfair said Brexit had a 30%
chance of passing. Epic fail.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
June 13th, 2018 at 4:27:01 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 200
Posts: 4699
If the weather forecaster says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow and then it rains the next day, is the forecaster wrong?
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
June 13th, 2018 at 4:29:43 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15005
Quote: Wizard
If the weather forecaster says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow and then it rains the next day, is the forecaster wrong?


If Betfair says Trump has a 22% chance
of winning, should I turn to them in the
future as a reliable betting source?
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
June 13th, 2018 at 5:26:20 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 7
Posts: 1295
Quote: Wizard
If the weather forecaster says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow and then it rains the next day, is the forecaster wrong?


If I say that any question I am asked has a .00000001% chance of happening will I ever be wrong?
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
June 13th, 2018 at 6:21:19 PM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 5
Posts: 1465
Quote: Wizard
If the weather forecaster says there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow and then it rains the next day, is the forecaster wrong?


Weather forecaster is NOT saying there's a 10% chance of rain. More accurately, he's predicting there WILL be rain in 10% of the forecast area.

If you're not at your house when it rains at your house, did it rain?
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
June 13th, 2018 at 7:08:10 PM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 2487
To be fair, a 10% chance of rain means that for any given point within the forecast area, there is a 10% chance of rain.

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
June 13th, 2018 at 7:11:46 PM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 121
Posts: 15005
Quote: Dalex64
To be fair, a 10% chance of rain means that for any given point within the forecast area, there is a 10% chance of rain.


That's the way the TV weather people
have explained it for the last 50 years.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.