Airbus 380

Quote: Pacomartin

But another 50 planes means a considerable investment in new infrastructure and terminals to handle them.

I think their hub is already built around the A380 as the mainstay of their fleet. A surprising number of airports can handle it, too, if not quite as efficiently in boarding/deplaning.

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That statement was equally true in December 2013 when Emirates made the order for 50 planes to save the A380 program. But in Dec 2013 the possibility of a neoA380 was still reasonably high.

They went for an odd business model, though it's not as unprecedented as it seems (see Singapore and Cathay). The really odd part is the reliance on the A380, and the total absence of narrow body aircraft, even from nominal subsidiaries.

Point is having only one customer is a dicey proposition. If some other airlines made as large an order as Emirates, that would guarantee a neo follow-on. As it is, if Emirates will continue with the A380, all they can do is use the ceo option.

Quote: Nareed

Emirates will continue with the A380, all they can do is use the ceo option.

I think that Emirates has options to increase their purchases on the Boeing aircraft, or even to switch to the Airbus 350. They have been demanding a decision on the neoA380 for over two years and although the answer will probably be "no", I think they want a decision.


Emirates Fleet
92 Airbus A380-800 with EA engines
50 Airbus A380-800 with Rolls Royce engines on order (delayed)
148 Boeing 777s with 24 on order and 5 older aircraft to leave the fleet and move to Rossiya Airlines in early 2017
140 Boeing 777's next generation on order: Deliveries planned to start from 2020

Quote: Pacomartin

I think that Emirates has options to increase their purchases on the Boeing aircraft, or even to switch to the Airbus 350. They have been demanding a decision on the neoA380 for over two years and although the answer will probably be "no", I think they want a decision.

They're also making cost-cutting measures to their model. Mostly on economy passengers as yet. The A380 affords a BIG premium area, what with there being two decks and all. I think some of their 3-class configurations have an all-premium upper deck. That's hundreds of passengers all paying many thousands of dollars each.

The 777 is rather deceptive. It's pretty much almost a 747-400 without an upper deck and slightly narrower. This means a BIG plane, though not a Very Large Aircraft. as far as seating goes, it loses in the extra premium seating as compared with the A380.

We'll see.

No delivery of an A380 in the first three weeks of 2017. Construction numbers have been assigned to only 5 aircraft that are not going to Emirates.

233 Etihad Airways
235 Qatar Airways
237 Etihad Airways
243 Singapore Airlines
246 Singapore Airlines

I still think there is a possibility of this program having a catastrophic shutdown, and not the slow phase out that was predicted.

The last orders: https://airwaysmag.com/industry/a-look-at-the-remaining-airbus-a380-and-boeing-747-orders-deliveries/

The 102 outstanding orders that are left are:
Emirates—50 The big question as they have Rolls Royce engines unlike original 92
Amedeo—20 Totally bogus order as they will only purchase if they have lease
Undisclosed—10 Hong Kong airlines- it will never happen. Political conflict between EU and China
Virgin Atlantic—6 Will never be delivered. The order was made in 2000
Singapore Airlines—5 returning five original planes to lessor. SA does not want to increase their fleet.
Air Accord—3 never going to happen. These are the Russian Transaero planes. Air Accord was the leasing company
Qatar Airways—3
All Nippon Airways—3
Etihad—2

If there was really an undisputed 102 jets on order, than Airbus could wind down the production line at a reasonable rate. But the reality is that there are only 8-13 plane orders that are not in some kind of major business conflict.

Quote: Pacomartin

The 102 outstanding orders that are left are:
Emirates—50 The big question as they have Rolls Royce engines unlike original 92

And that's really the order that matters. Not only does it outweigh all others combined, but it's the one most likely to be partly fulfilled.

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Virgin Atlantic—6 Will never be delivered. The order was made in 2000

Every time I see that order, I'm reminded of Pan Am's Concorde order :)

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But the reality is that there are only 8-13 plane orders that are not in some kind of major business conflict.

I'm thinking the first era of the VLA has come and gone, and we'll have to wait for the next one. Assuming traffic does grow enough, the Very Large Plane will have a role in some routes.

Meantime Large Planes are doing just fine. But Boeing needs to develop a composite, higher pressure and humidity cabin aircraft larger than the 787-10. Otherwise the A350-1000 will eat its lunch.

And at the other end of the spectrum, there's a crying need for a clean sheet narrow body to at last replace the decades-old 737 frame. Boeing's hobby seems to be how best to go from a clean-sheet design for a narrow body to a further modification of the 737.

Quote: Nareed

And at the other end of the spectrum, there's a crying need for a clean sheet narrow body to at last replace the decades-old 737 frame. Boeing's hobby seems to be how best to go from a clean-sheet design for a narrow body to a further modification of the 737.

It was certainly the intention of Boeing to start with a clean slate design, but the threat of Southwest to replace their entire fleet with the neoA320 stopped them dead in their track.

As we discussed earlier the B737-7max and the neoA319 are both pretty much dead on arrival as the clean slate Bombardier design seems to offer so much more performance for the money.

Quote: Pacomartin

As we discussed earlier the B737-7max and the neoA319 are both pretty much dead on arrival as the clean slate Bombardier design seems to offer so much more performance for the money.

Airbus needs to get on a new design, too. The A320 is an 80s design, after all.

Funny how they have no problem coming up with one new wide body design per decade, at least, but narrow bodies elude both companies.

IT stands to reason that eventually airport congestion, air traffic, delays caused by too many flights, etc. will inevitably make some kind of very large airplane (VLA) desirable on at least some routes, be they long or short.

The problem with this premise is that it ahs stood to reason for years now.

Planes at the lower end and middle (ie regional jets to narrow bodies) have gotten larger. But at the other end, they've gotten smaller for the most part.

The end result is that I doubt there will be a very limited role for a VLA, for decades to come.

The one exception would seem to be Air Force One. The USAF insists the plane have four engines. Assuming the new AF1 goes into service in 2022 or so, that ought to be good until the mid 2050s (it flies very few cycles, really, even taking training flights into account). By then there may be a new 4-engine design out from Boeing or Airbus, but who can tell (about all one can tell is the B-737 SUPER will be Boeing's entry in the middle of the market business, but only while they come up with a new narrow body clean-sheet design; and it should compete fiercely with the A320neonova).

Hopefully by then supersonic planes will be mainstream, and the USAF will pick one, if it has four engines...