Airbus 380

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February 4th, 2017 at 7:20:11 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
Quote: Nareed
Optimist. But you'll notice he admits it won't fly any time soon. Also, notice the ten-year estimate.


But realistically, how many of the top airports in Europe will be within some range of a narrowbody aircraft in 10-15 years from US cities? probably not the ones in Russia or Turkey. The future will be in smaller planes going to multiple airports.

  1. Heathrow Airport
  2. Charles de Gaulle Airport
  3. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
  4. Frankfurt Airport
  5. Istanbul Atatürk Airport
  6. Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport
  7. Barcelona El Prat Airport
  8. London-Gatwick Airport
  9. Munich Airport
  10. Leonardo da Vinci–Fiumicino Airport
  11. Sheremetyevo International Airport
  12. Paris-Orly Airport
  13. Sabiha Gökçen Airport
  14. Copenhagen Airport
  15. Domodedovo International Airport
  16. Dublin Airport
  17. Zürich Airport
  18. Palma de Mallorca Airport
  19. Oslo Airport
  20. Manchester Airport
  21. Stockholm-Arlanda Airport
  22. London Stansted Airport
  23. Düsseldorf Airport
  24. Vienna International Airport
  25. Lisbon Portela Airport
  26. Brussels Airport
  27. Berlin Tegel Airport
  28. Athens International Airport
  29. Malpensa Airport
  30. Antalya Airport


Megaseat airplanes may come into more demand in Asia for shorter routes. but look how poor sales of the A380 were in Asia. Only 80 planes were ordered an that includes 20 from Qantas of which only 12 were delivered. Most people think the remaining 8 will never be purchased.

Del / Ord Undeliver : Airline Country
19 / 24 5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES SINGAPORE
12 / 20 8 : QANTAS AIRWAYS AUSTRALIA
10 / 10 0 : KOREAN AIR KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
6 / 6 0 : MALAYSIA AIRLINES MALAYSIA
6 / 6 0 : THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL THAILAND
5 / 5 0 : CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY CHINA
4 / 6 2 : ASIANA AIRLINES KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
0 / 3 3 : All Nippon Airlines JAPAN

When the A380 was designed, they knew that Qantas and Singapore Air were going to be big customers, but they expected to sell a lot of planes in the rest of Asia given the crowded airports and the heavy traffic that exists on some of the routes.
May 5th, 2017 at 4:07:15 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 4825
Reuters: China enters the fray: Airbus, Boeing and now China.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aviation-comac-flight-takeoff-idUSKBN1810F3
September 18th, 2017 at 9:34:14 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
Next delay for A380: A decade before break even - Business International Herald Tribune By NICOLA CLARKOCT. 19, 2006

The above article was written one year before the first delivery. The following quote is from the article.
Airbus now has 159 firm orders for the A380, a number that has not changed in almost a year. With Airbus in the deepest crisis of its 36-year history, some analysts have suggested that getting many more new orders for the large plane might be a tough prospect. The company has said that it expects to sell 751 planes during the life of the program, which insiders say represents about 50 percent of the market for planes with 400 or more seats, like the Boeing 747.

The 159 orders for the A380 included 20 for a freight version, which would be cancelled within 6 months

43 Emirates
15 Lufthansa
12 Qantas
10 Air France
10 Singapore Airlines
6 Malaysia Airlines
6 Thai Airways International
5 China Southern Airlines
5 Korean Air
4 Etihad Airways
2 Qatar Airways

10 ILFC
6 Virgin Atlantic
5 Kingfisher Airlines
139 Passenger Total

10 FedEx Express
10 UPS Airlines

As we know in addition to the 20 freight versions, the leasing company ILFC would cancel their 10 orders, Virgin Atlantic would not make plans to take their 6 orders, Kingfisher Airlines in India never had more than 34 narrow bodies and eventually went bankrupt.

Another quote:
The company also confirmed that it could deliver only 84 of the planes by the end of 2010, down from a forecast in June of 159 planes....The company has said that it expects to sell 751 planes during the life of the program,...Once the current A380 production bottlenecks have been cleared, Airbus should be able to produce around 45 of the jets a year beginning in 2010, executives have said. Based on that schedule, analysts said that Airbus could not expect to recover its costs until 2017.

In reality Airbus only delivered 41 planes by the end of 2010. Production never exceeded 30 planes in a year. Clearly costs are not going to be recovered by 2017.

I suspect the A380 program may be cancelled by the end of next year. The first aircraft delivery of an A350-1000 is expected in a few weeks to Qatar Airways. I think once the -1000 variant is flying Airbus will offer the airlines a chance to downgauge and replace their A380 orders.

Qatar Air configurations
283 seats in the A350-900
327 seats in the Airbus A350-1000 instead of
517 in the Airbus A380-800.


Airbus A380 blows £1bn hole in budget By Christopher Hope 14 Dec 2004
Is the first article that I can find that indicates that the A380 was getting into trouble.
September 19th, 2017 at 6:29:08 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
Delta could potentially be a purchaser of the used A380s.


Delta is heavily invested in their partner Aeromexico, and has come just short of buying the airline outright. But the contrast with Delta's aging fleet and Aeromexico's brand new planes is striking.

Delta has shown a willingness to purchase used aircraft in the past. The low acquisition price may make up for the higher operating costs.
September 20th, 2017 at 7:02:07 AM permalink
DRich
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 18
Posts: 765
Quote: Pacomartin
... The low acquisition price may make up for the higher operating costs.


Allegiant used that model very successfully with all of the old MD-80's it bought.
September 20th, 2017 at 7:15:31 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 328
Posts: 11368
Quote: Pacomartin
Delta is heavily invested in their partner Aeromexico, and has come just short of buying the airline outright.


I don't think the law allows them to buy more than 49% of it, which is what I believe they've done.

Quote:
Delta has shown a willingness to purchase used aircraft in the past. The low acquisition price may make up for the higher operating costs.


How low should the price of a used A380 be for that to make sense? I'm thinking anything over 60% of the cost of a new 777 or A350 would be too high (yeah, I just made that up).
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 20th, 2017 at 7:27:49 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
American has not had a B747 in 30 years. United is heavily invested in B777 and B787. But Delta is showing a willingness to purchase Airbus widebodies. Their fleet is much older than United or American fleet.

Hypothetically if they want to put more than one Asian route from Atlanta, they will need some new aircraft
September 20th, 2017 at 1:10:43 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 328
Posts: 11368
Quote: Pacomartin
Hypothetically if they want to put more than one Asian route from Atlanta, they will need some new aircraft


Atlanta is a terrible hub for staging towards Asia. it's far south and east.

MEX is even worse, i know, but it's not like you have many better choices if you operate from Mexico. Whereas Delta can stage flights from LA and New York.


Which reminds me:

Amy: So, Fry, Atlanta was an American city in your time?

Fry: I think it was just an airport. They had a place where you could buy nuts.

Umbriel: No! Ancient Atlanta was more than just a Delta hub. It was a vibrant metropolis, the equal of Paris or New York.

Fry: That's right, honey! Whatever you say.

Umbriel: Look at these fabulous ruins. Turner Field, the Coca-Cola bottling plant, the, uh, the airport.

Leela: But tell us, how could a city with such a ... fabulous airport end up underwater?
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
September 20th, 2017 at 8:03:57 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
Delta's Widebody Fleet and average age
82 Boeing 767 20.2 years
7 Boeing 747 26.1 years (to be retired by year end 2017)
18 Boeing 777 12.5 years (-200 models delivered 1999-2010)
0 Boeing 787 No Dreamliners in fleet
42 Airbus A330 9.6 years
1 Airbus A350 0.2 year (24 more on order)

Aeromexico's Widebody Fleet and average age
3 Boeing 777 12.8 years (-200 models delivered 2001-2006)
14 Boeing 787 2.1 years

Quote: Nareed
Atlanta is a terrible hub for staging towards Asia. it's far south and east.
MEX is even worse, i know, but it's not like you have many better choices if you operate from Mexico. Whereas Delta can stage flights from LA and New York.

Delta doesn't fly from JFK to Asia. Their Northeast hub to Asia is Detroit
Delta is now 49% owner of Aeromexico as March 2017.
Delta/Aeromexico have 16 flights to Asia with another being added next year.





Yes, of course the distance is further, but the airline likes to advantage of it's existing domestic operations to feed the hubs. You are competing with everyone under the sun from LAX, but ATL belongs to Delta.

So Delta is adding Shanghai (PVG) to Tokyo and Seoul from Atlanta next year. The newer generation of planes can handle these distances, so a stopover in Tijuana will probably be eliminated next year when the B777 is retired for a Dreamliner B787-900. The Dreamliners are going to get an upgrade to help them with the high and dry conditions at MEX.

Miles to Shanghai
8,041 MEX (currently fuel stop in TIJ)
7,660 ATL (July 2018)
7,131 DET
6,485 LAX
5,722 SEA (world's #1 longest range for commercial flight with Boeing 767-300ER)

Detroit is a little closer, but the five flights are more of a carryover from Delta acquiring Northwest in 2010.


Miles
7,004 MEX NRT Japan
6,851 ATL NRT
6,396 DET NRT
4,769 SEA NRT
5,982 MSP HND
5,488 LAX HND
6,550 DET NGO
7,153 ATL ICN South Korea
6,631 DET ICN
5,216 SEA ICN
8,041 MEX PVG China
7,660 ATL PVG -- added in 2018
7,131 DET PVG
6,485 LAX PVG
5,722 SEA PVG
6,624 DET PEK
6,500 SEA HKG


Both Delta and Aeromexico want to add more frequency and destinations to China. They are also moving from Narita to Haneda in Tokyo as Japanese regulations are changing.
September 20th, 2017 at 9:02:50 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 736
Posts: 8583
When the A321-neo Long Range version comes out (4000 nm) it might be possible to replace some of the flights to Europe from Atlanta with narrow bodies.

The map shows the shaded region from 3500-400 nm from Atlanta
With that massive fleet of aging B767s Delta will have to do something.

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