Airbus 380

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November 13th, 2017 at 2:23:44 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8737
Quote: Nareed
BTW, the C Series could fly non-stop London-NYC. As far as I know, no one is planning such flights. But no one was planning the 737 flights between Stewart and Europe a few years ago, either.

Odyssey Airlines is planning luxury configuration of CS100 from JFK to London City Airport (LCY) and replace the A318 used by BA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odyssey_Airlines

Emirates is prepared to order more A380s but they want a guarantee that Airbus will maintain production at 8 per year for a decade beginning in 2019. Airbus plans to cut production to 12 for 2018.

Official unfilled order list
42 : EMIRATES
3 : (ANA) ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS
2 : QATAR AIRWAYS
5 : SINGAPORE AIRLINES
....
8 : QANTAS AIRWAYS
20 : AMEDEO
10 : UNDISCLOSED
6 : VIRGIN ATLANTIC
3 : AIR ACCORD
November 13th, 2017 at 5:28:49 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11556
Can the CS 100 make it all the way to JFK from LCY without the refueling stop at Shannon?
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 13th, 2017 at 10:49:31 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8737
Quote: Nareed
Can the CS 100 make it all the way to JFK from LCY without the refueling stop at Shannon?


The problem is going from LCY to JFK against the headwinds. Odyssey is crowd funding and announcing that they can do the return trip nonstop.
But there is some debate about whether they can handle it in some winters.

The advertised still air range for both aircraft is the same, and the CS100 seems to have less fuel capacity than the A318.
Furthermore British Airways only put in 32 seats. Odyssey's plans to put in 40 seats. BA started their LCY-SNN-JFK service in October 2009.

The nonstop great circle range is 5578 kilometers from LCY to JFK.
The nonstop great circle range is 5050 kilometers from LCY to BAH (Muharraq Arpt, Bahrain)

From the specification on Fuel Capacity and advertised range, the CS100 does not seem more capable than it's competitors from up to 20 years ago.
B737-600 26,022L (advertised range 5,991 km) ~ first aircraft delivered in September 1998. A total of 69 737-600s were produced.
A318 24,210L (advertised range 5,750 km) ~ first aircraft delivered in July 2003 . A total of 80 A318s were produced.
CS100 17,630 kg = 22,037L assuming .8 kg/Liter (advertised range 5,741 km). A total of 48 CS100s were ordered not including the Delta order.

Wikipedia does say that British Airways flights from London City to New YorkJFK include a fuel stop at Shannon Airport due to weight restrictions on departure from LCY. So it is possible that the A318 could not take on a full load of fuel, while the lighter CS100 is permitted to do so.

Boeing 737-600
Maximum landing weight (MLW) 121,500 lb
Maximum take-off weight (MTOW) 144,500 lb

I've read that the B737-600 is not fly by wire, and could not make the glideslope to fly into LCY The A318 has to use special software connected to the flight spoilers in order to do the approach.

Airbus A318
Maximum landing weight (MLW) 126,800 lb
Maximum take-off weight (MTOW) 150,000 lb

Bombardier CS100
Maximum landing weight MLW 115,500 lb
Maximum take-off weight MTOW 134,000 lb


There may be a reason that this route is being attempted by a British start up and not by an established airline. It probably isn't dangerous, because they know how strong the winds are when the plane takes off. But their business plan may suffer if they have to make a lot of unplanned stops in Newfoundland in winter.

Although Delta has ordered 75 CS100s they do have the right to convert the orders to CS300s. It is possible that this order is an elaborate feint as it is much easier to argue the CS100 in front of the US Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration. Their primary argument was that Boeing does not have an aircraft that competes with the CS100 since they stopped producing the B717. The CS300 is much closer to the specifications of the B737 Max 7 (web price $92.2 million).

I have no doubt that the Delta deliveries will start with CS100s, but the question is does it change after the first year?

The other airlines that have ordered the CS100 seem to be primarily motivated by the steep 5.5° approaches into LCY.

Orders for the CS100 other than Delta
Swiss Global Air Lines 10 8 deliveries
Odyssey Airlines (British) 10
Braathens Aviation (Swedish) 10
Gulf Air (Bahrain) 10
PrivatAir (Swiss) 5
Lease Corporation International 3

On 08 AUGUST, 2017 Swiss announced they plan to gradually increase the number of Bombardier CS100 flights to London City from the initial single rotation per day. Swiss's CSeries chief pilot Peter Koch said it intended to eventually operate five CS100 flights a day to the UK capital's downtown airport, without specifying a timeframe.
November 15th, 2017 at 4:13:43 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 4984
I can envision a no baggage, no meals flight so as to avoid making that undesired fuel stop after encountering adverse head winds, but how would that go with the passenger profile?
November 15th, 2017 at 4:13:43 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 4984
Maybe climb higher to avoid the head winds? Climb to the service ceiling right away? Arrive on fumes.
November 15th, 2017 at 7:35:29 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11556
Quote: Pacomartin
Wikipedia does say that British Airways flights from London City to New YorkJFK include a fuel stop at Shannon Airport due to weight restrictions on departure from LCY. So it is possible that the A318 could not take on a full load of fuel, while the lighter CS100 is permitted to do so.


That's what I always understood to be the problem, given that LCY has a short runway. And that's why BA needs to operate an A318.

I guess we'll see.

I wonder what takes longer, the refueling stop and pre-clearance at Shannon, or clearing immigration and customs at JFK. A banker's shuttle operation won't land at Stewart, NY.

Meantime, Egypt air, of all people, has ordered a dozen CS 300s with options for 12 more. there's some speculation this is the first fallout of Airbus's takeover of the C Series.

Speaking of airbus, the magical order from Emirates has not materialized. Allegedly the airline wants guarantees that Airlines won't cancel the A380 program and its production line. Ironically, the best guarantee for that is more orders from Emirates.

I think in America this is known as Catch 22 (I've never read that book).
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 15th, 2017 at 1:41:40 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11556
BTW, weird things happen when you compare the cost of a plane vs the cost of a hotel....

See, the A380 list price, according to a news item I read yesterday, is about $430 million. let's assume a 45% discount on "wholesale," and that's $236.5 ,million each. So I got to thinking there must be buildings cheaper than that. then I wondered which uses up more energy to operate (no idea, and for a hotel it depends on the local climate for things like A/C and heating).And then I wondered whether it might make sense to sell planes by daily rates, regardless of routes flown.

Weird things indeed.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
November 15th, 2017 at 10:33:33 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8737
Quote: Nareed
Speaking of airbus, the magical order from Emirates has not materialized. Allegedly the airline wants guarantees that Airlines won't cancel the A380 program and its production line. Ironically, the best guarantee for that is more orders from Emirates.


From Emirates point of view they have already made two "save the program" purchases from airbus in the last 7-8 years . If they are going to make a third such purchase they also want it in writing that Airbus won't cancel the program without paying out substantial money.

Orders that have not subsequently fallen through
Jun 2010 Emirates 32 planes
Jan 2011 Asiana Airlines 6 planes
Nov 2011 Qatar Airways 5 planes
Oct 2012 Singapore Airlines 5 planes (contract tied to Airbus buying back 5 long range A340-500 delivered a decade earlier)
Dec 2013 Emirates 50 planes
Jan 2016 ANA 3 planes (contract tied to Airbus backing ANA takeover of Skymark)
Apr 2016 Emirates 2 planes

Quote: Nareed
I think in America this is known as Catch 22 (I've never read that book).


More or less. The original Catch 22 (Joseph Heller began writing in 1953 about WWII) was they wouldn't be excused from military operations unless you were insane, but requesting to leave the military was considered one of the most same requests you could make.
November 16th, 2017 at 11:52:04 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 744
Posts: 8737
Quote: Nareed
See, the A380 list price, according to a news item I read yesterday, is about $430 million.


Pretty close

AIRBUS AIRCRAFT 2017 AVERAGE LIST PRICES* (USD millions)
A318 $75.9
A319 $90.5
A320 $99.0
A321 $116.0
A319neo $99.5
A320neo $108.4
A321neo $127.0
A330-200 $233.8
A330-800 (neo) $254.8
A330-200 Freighter $237.0
A330-300 $259.0
A330-900 (neo) $290.6
A350-800 $275.1
A350-900 $311.2
A350-1000 $359.3
A380 $436.9


Quote: Nareed
BTW, weird things happen when you compare the cost of a plane vs the cost of a hotel....


Break even point is highly dependent on price of rooms, quality of hotel, location. Break even point for an airplane is also highly dependent on configuration and number of premium seats sol. If you configure without premium seats than Break even point is often well over 85%.
November 16th, 2017 at 12:56:53 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 330
Posts: 11556
Quote: Pacomartin
From Emirates point of view they have already made two "save the program" purchases from airbus in the last 7-8 years . If they are going to make a third such purchase they also want it in writing that Airbus won't cancel the program without paying out substantial money.


I'd say they have saved the program twice already. Mission accomplished!

But, yeah, I understand their misgivings. They'll want more A380s later, and they'll want spares and support always.

In the end, though, Emirates is the only customer keeping the A380 alive. So it's a tough call for both.


Quote:
More or less. The original Catch 22 (Joseph Heller began writing in 1953 about WWII) was they wouldn't be excused from military operations unless you were insane, but requesting to leave the military was considered one of the most same requests you could make.


True story, i once got a notice from the tax authority asking why I was trying to get a tax ID number when I already had one. So the accountant sent a change of tax regime, and we got a notice back saying I could not change that because I had no tax ID number.

Now, my working hypothesis was that I could prove in court I tried to pay my taxes and wasn't allowed, ergo I could skip all subsequent tax payments for life. The accountant, louse that he was, got it straightened out.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
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