Election question

Quote: s2dbaker

Gallup just released their final number and surprise!! Obama closed the gap by 4 points from Gallup's last poll. Magic? perhaps or more likely, Gallup didn't want to look like fools. Still, only Gallup and Rasmussen have Romney in the lead.

Rasmussen has 49/48 Romney overall. Playing with his numbers and the five-thirty-eights funky little tool (http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map) Wisconsin and Ohio seem to be the key.

If North Carolina goes Obama, it would look to be a short night for Romney. If Michigan goes Romney, I would expect the 320 prediction people have bandied around to occur. What point is a "landslide" though :)

As for trust, I'm not sure I'm ready to play what-ifs on future events, until those events occur.

Quote: TheCesspit

What point is a "landslide" though :)

The concession speech was less than 1 hour ago.
Assuming that they call Florida for Obama soon, Obama will have lost only Indiana and North Carolina of the states he won in 2008 (plus Omaha congressional district).

Since Indiana and North Carolina were basically conceded before the election, I would call it a landslide relative to expectations.

Looks like Florida will go Obama's way as well, meaning he reaches "320" which I understood from the Republicans was the level for "mandate" and "landslide".

Quote: TheCesspit

Looks like Florida will go Obama's way as well, meaning he reaches "320" which I understood from the Republicans was the level for "mandate" and "landslide".

It seems like "mandate" is the wrong word for either party to use since turnout was terrible. Obama actually had fewer votes than John Kerry did in 2004. Mitt Romney could have won the election if people had just bothered to turn up. It seems as if more of that $2 billion should have been spent less on tearing down the other candidate and just caring one way or the other.

In a sense the state of New York falling short by a million and a half voters from 2008 is sort of meaningless since Obama had a 27% margin in both elections. You could understand that many people were still suffering from storm damage. But Ohio just got a little snow, and they were instrumental in determining the outcome.

Quote: Pacomartin

Obama actually had fewer votes than John Kerry did in 2004.

I show Kerry at a little over 59MM and Bush at about 62MM in 2004. Obama is at 60MM with California and Washington both less than 70% counted. He won't get to the 69MM votes that he had in 2008, but Obama should eclipse both candidates vote counts from 2004.

Quote: rdw4potus

but Obama should eclipse both candidates vote counts from 2004.

You are correct, I did speak too soon before all votes were counted. Obama did just barely beat McCain and Kerry.

62,040,610 Bush 2004
60,662,601 Obama 2012
59,934,814 McCain 2008
59,028,444 Kerry 2004
57,821,399 Romney 2012

But still well over 12 million people stayed home this election vs 4 years ago. There must not have been that many people who felt strongly enough to vote Obama out of office.

Quote: Pacomartin

You are correct, I did speak too soon before all votes were counted. Obama did just barely beat McCain and Kerry.

62,040,610 Bush 2004
60,662,601 Obama 2012
59,934,814 McCain 2008
59,028,444 Kerry 2004
57,821,399 Romney 2012

But still well over 12 million people stayed home this election vs 4 years ago. There must not have been that many people who felt strongly enough to vote Obama out of office.

I agree that we'll end up well below 2008's turnout, but you're still speaking too soon:-)

Quote: rdw4potus

I agree that we'll end up well below 2008's turnout, but you're still speaking too soon:-)

But it's still a fairly reasonable guess that if all those people who are still alive after 8 years, that voted for a 2nd term for GW Bush participated in t2012 election, combined with people who were disenfranchised with the last 4 years and wanted to switch, then Romney would have had a decent shot at winning.

My guess is that many of Obama's supporters who feel dissappointment would opt to stay home, rather than switch to Romney. But you would think the Republicans would want to be there in force, especially in the battleground states.

The Big O just crossed 62MM votes. Romney is at 58.6MM. Both candidates should wind up over 60MM - 64.3 or so to 60.2 or so, once absentees and provisionals and general mail-in ballots are all counted.

Quote: rdw4potus

The Big O just crossed 62MM votes. Romney is at 58.6MM. Both candidates should wind up over 60MM - 64.3 or so to 60.2 or so, once absentees and provisionals and general mail-in ballots are all counted.

62.3MM Obama 2012 - 62.0MM Bush 2004
58.94MM Romney 2012 - 59.9MM McCain 2008

I may have overstated my conclusion, but the turnout still seemed poor. Had the Republican faithful returned from 8 years previously, it would have given a start.