Boeing vs Airbus

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December 5th, 2017 at 8:04:56 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 753
Posts: 8890
Quote: Nareed
I think the relevant figure is cost per seat, as that tells you how many seats you need to fill. But past that there's such a thing as passenger well-being and passenger experience. Wide bodies are better for the latter two.

=========
Financing cost per seat: Widebody costs more than twice as much
A321neo $127.0
A330-900 (neo) $290.6

Fuel cost per seat:The widebody burned almost exactly twice as much fuel per mile. The A321NeoLR had 154 seats and the A330neo-900 had 310 seats, which meant that they had nominally the same fuel economy per passenger.
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i think the general rule with USA airlines is you always fly a single aisle jet over a wide body unless you don't have the range. In Mexico it seems as if even the longest range single aisle jets don't bring the major South American airports into range, so there is no advantage in flying to them. Aeromexico may be purchasing the B797 as it might be cheaper to fly them to South America instead of using their Dreamliners. But they won't be delivered for another 7 years at a minimum.



With Asian airliners the same rules don't seem to apply. From the earliest days of the B747 Japan was purchasing short range versions of widebodies. The driving factor seems to be runway congestion.

Clearly Emirates flies routes with widebodies that could easily be flown with narrowbodies. I don't know if they are losing business to flydubai which has a fleet of over 60 B737s. But flydubai seems to have only 7 European destinations (out of over 90 destinations total).

Bulgaria Sofia SOF LBSF Sofia Airport
Croatia Dubrovnik DBV LDDU Dubrovnik Airport
Czech Republic Prague PRG LKPR Václav Havel Airport Prague
Serbia Belgrade BEG LYBE Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport
Slovakia Bratislava BTS LZIB M. R. Štefánik Airport
Ukraine Kiev IEV UKKK Kiev International Airport
Ukraine Odessa ODS UKOO Odessa International Airport


I think the B797 will be a major shift
December 5th, 2017 at 12:49:09 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
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Quote: Pacomartin
i think the general rule with USA airlines is you always fly a single aisle jet over a wide body unless you don't have the range. In Mexico it seems as if even the longest range single aisle jets don't bring the major South American airports into range, so there is no advantage in flying to them. Aeromexico may be purchasing the B797 as it might be cheaper to fly them to South America instead of using their Dreamliners. But they won't be delivered for another 7 years at a minimum.


AM flies some of their 787s to Monterrey from time to time. What I heard is they do this rather than let the plane sit idle at MEX between long haul flights.

both AM and Interjet fly narrow bodies to Colombia and Peru. Some of those flights are almost equivalent in length to NY-London. I wonder how people survive AM's seats and Interjet's lack of food (they serve a sandwich).


Quote:
I think the B797 will be a major shift


it could be. the 787 was. Boeing's history does not fill me with confidence that it will ever get built. Granted it's not a clean sheet narrow body, but it's close. BTW Boeing's last clean sheet narrow body was the 727! Airbus really needs to catch up :)
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December 5th, 2017 at 10:02:53 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 753
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Quote: Nareed
AM flies some of their 787s to Monterrey from time to time. What I heard is they do this rather than let the plane sit idle at MEX between long haul flights.


I thought they flew them to NYC in between long haul flights.

I saw that one of their B777 flights was diverted to Cancun last week
AeroMéxico 29 EZEIZA, ARGENTINA - CANCUN, MEXICO
THURSDAY 30-NOV-2017 11:55PM - FRIDAY 01-DEC-2017 07:31AM EST

Quote: Nareed
both AM and Interjet fly narrow bodies to Colombia and Peru. Some of those flights are almost equivalent in length to NY-London. I wonder how people survive AM's seats and Interjet's lack of food (they serve a sandwich).

It's a long single aisle flight, (longer than any Southwest flight) but still short of TATL

Juarez Intl, Mexico City, MX (MEX) to Nlima Intl Jorge Chavez, Lima, PE (LIM) Distance 2640 miles
Logan Intl Arpt, Boston, MA (BOS) to Dublin Arpt, Dublin, IE (DUB) 2980 miles

Quote: Nareed
it could be. the 787 was. Boeing's history does not fill me with confidence that it will ever get built. Granted it's not a clean sheet narrow body, but it's close. BTW Boeing's last clean sheet narrow body was the 727! Airbus really needs to catch up :)

Boeing has a lot riding on this plane. So it will be built.

As of 31 October 2017, 14,183 units of the Boeing 737 have been ordered, with 4,430 units still to be delivered.
The B737-800 has had 5,026 orders and 4,628 deliveries so it has been by far the most popular variation of a plane ever built in Boeing's history.

Boeing claims that they expect to sell 4000 of the B797 twin aisle jet, making it their biggest selling wide body ever by a long margin.

Airbus has delivered 2905 widebody aircraft in it's entire history.
December 6th, 2017 at 7:28:32 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
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Quote: Pacomartin
I thought they flew them to NYC in between long haul flights.


That, too.

A few months ago, they were advertising the 787 for MTY.


Quote:
Boeing has a lot riding on this plane. So it will be built.


I'm firmly convinced McDonnell Douglass would still be around if they had developed a narrow body replacement for the DC-9, rather than just engaging on various upgrades of the type. At the least, Airbus would have found it harder to place the A320 all over the world.

So it's not just Boeing, but also what Boeing has been eating these past few decades ;)

Quote:
Boeing claims that they expect to sell 4000 of the B797 twin aisle jet, making it their biggest selling wide body ever by a long margin.


And then there's that. The consortium that made Concorde expected around 200 orders, and they had quite a bit of interest from many airlines. Even if the plane is built and delivered, who knows what else might go wrong or change in between now and then. If the Concorde analogy seems forced, consider the A380.
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December 6th, 2017 at 9:28:36 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 753
Posts: 8890
Quote: Nareed
Quote:
Boeing claims that they expect to sell 4000 of the B797 twin aisle jet, making it their biggest selling wide body ever by a long margin.

And then there's that.

LAX to LHR is 4725 nautical miles, which means counting headwinds a plane with a range of 5000 nmi and up to 250 seats in 2 classes may not be suitable.

The Airbus CEO thinks they can sell 1000 A321neoLR with 206 seats and a range of 4000 nmi.

There are lots of routes (MIA to MAD) 3834 nmi ,less than 5000 nmi , but MEX-MAD is 4892.4 nmi.

I could see the B797 becoming popular for TATL from the midwest or Texas, but I can't imagine it replacing USA domestic single aisle jets. It seems in Latin America most routes of importance are over 5000 nmi. I assume Boeing thinks it can sell them all in Asia, but many of the busiest routes are easily in range of single aisle jets.

That is a lot of jets to sell considering that it is only slightly larger than a single aisle jet and may cost 50% to 100% more money. But 4000 jets over 8 years of production is the same rate as the B737.


List of 120 airlines with longest flight between (from SWA to 5000 nautical miles). Ranges are for longest flight in nautical miles. Theory is that if a smaller airline adopts a widebody plane, they will probably want all of them to be the same model.

The reason I made a list of airlines that have their longest flight less than 5000 miles is that most airlines with fewer than 100 planes do not have the means to support more than one or two types of widebodies. If it is going to be a B797 it should cover all of their routes.


As near as I can tell no airline buys a wide body aircraft unless they are flying routes that they can't do reliably with a narrow body aircraft. In other words no body buys a wide body strictly for the extra capacity that they can carry, although once they have purchased some, they may use them on a route with a shorter range.

That is almost precisely the mindset that Boeing is going to try and change with the B797. They are asking airlines to purchase them solely for their carrying capacity and the extra 1000 nmi of range. But the B797 does not carry significantly more passengers than an A321LR (250 to 206 in standard configuration).

Airlines with the smallest longest route that own widebody aircraft
nautical miles
3,108 Azores Airlines ---------- (3 Airbus A310-300 and 1 Airbus A330-200)
3,249 Icelandair ---------------(4 Boeing 767-300ER)


nautical miles
2,283 Southwest Airlines
2,283 Spirit Airlines
2,296 Interjet
2,298 Avianca El Salvador
2,307 Ryanair
2,331 Eastar Jet
2,339 LATAM Colombia
2,350 JetBlue Airways
2,350 Virgin America
2,357 Air Baltic
2,393 Iran Air
2,396 Allegiant Air
2,403 Flydubai
2,421 Malindo Air
2,503 Alaska Airlines ~ 152 narrow bodies
2,507 Thai AirAsia X
2,511 Business Air
2,562 Ural Airlines
2,581 TAME
2,630 TUIfly
2,705 SilkAir
2,730 Air Niugini
2,739 Asia Atlantic Airlines
2,742 Camair-Co
2,763 Air Astana
2,782 Middle East Airlines ~ 20 narrow bodies
2,794 Transavia ~ 44 narow bodies
2,894 Gol Linhas Aéreas ~ 119 narrow bodies
2,907 S7 Airlines ~ 78 narrow bodies
2,941 Copa Airlines ~89 narrow bodies
2,952 TACV ~ 2 narrow bodies
3,108 Azores Airlines ---------- (3 Airbus A310-300 and 1 Airbus A330-200)
3,154 Oman Air
3,201 Sunwing Airlines
3,249 Icelandair ---------------(4 Boeing 767-300ER)
3,318 Air Japan
3,362 Yakutia Airlines
3,486 Mahan Air
3,587 MIAT Mongolian Airlines
3,653 Uzbekistan Airways
3,656 Azul Brazilian Airlines
3,664 Tunisair
3,677 Iraqi Airways
3,712 Brussels Airlines
3,730 PAL Express
3,738 WOW air
3,781 Conviasa
3,813 AirAsia X
3,829 LATAM Argentina
3,838 Air Caraïbes
3,920 Air Serbia
3,968 Jin Air
3,985 Gulf Air
4,059 Royal Air Maroc
4,071 Rwandair
4,101 Ukraine International Airlines
4,127 WestJet
4,186 Cubana de Aviación
4,205 Cebu Pacific
4,208 Aircalin
4,213 Thomas Cook Airlines
4,229 Air Seychelles
4,259 Kenya Airways
4,305 Wamos Air
4,323 Biman Bangladesh Airlines
4,337 Jet Airways
4,363 Air Namibia
4,399 Hawaiian Airlines
4,400 Air Canada Rouge
4,459 Czech Airlines
4,490 TUIfly Belgium
4,501 Aer Lingus
4,506 Royal Brunei Airlines
4,562 Arik Air
4,626 Beijing Capital Airlines
4,658 Lion Air
4,708 SriLankan Airlines
4,712 Air Madagascar
4,714 Avianca
4,714 Novair
4,738 TAP Portugal
4,764 Air Transat
4,796 Fiji Airways
4,798 Jetstar Airways
4,798 Scandinavian Airlines
4,808 Boliviana de Aviación
4,852 XL Airways France
4,868 LATAM Ecuador
4,879 Scoot
4,901 TUIfly Nordic
4,928 Air Algérie
4,967 Blue Panorama Airlines
4,979 Thomson Airways
5,007 Finnair
December 11th, 2017 at 7:29:52 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11753
Quote: Pacomartin
I could see the B797 becoming popular for TATL from the midwest or Texas, but I can't imagine it replacing USA domestic single aisle jets.


It depends on demand, slot restrictions and the like, I suppose.

But extending the single-aisle transatlantic flights to a small twin-aisle plane is a great idea, if Boeing ever does it.

Also, I can't help but think that the one and only MoM plane, the 757, wasn't exactly a roaring success. And yet current operators won't let them go. Hopefully things will turn out better with the 797, if it ever gets built.
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December 11th, 2017 at 12:39:13 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 753
Posts: 8890
Quote: Nareed
Also, I can't help but think that the one and only MoM plane, the 757, wasn't exactly a roaring success. And yet current operators won't let them go. Hopefully things will turn out better with the 797, if it ever gets built.


Since the definition is vague, I normally consider both B757 and B767 to be MoM . Just over 1000 of each was produced. But there are a lot more jets being bought today. In 1982 2 B757s were delivered and 20 B767s. In May 1985 the regulations were changed to permit TATL on less than engines. The initial flights were Boeing 767 service between St. Louis and Frankfurt, allowing TWA to fly its aircraft up to 90 minutes away from the nearest airfield: this was later extended to 120 minutes after a federal evaluation of the airline's operating procedures.

Boeing 757-300
1-class seating 280
Exit Limit 295
3,400nmi range

Boeing 767-300 and 300ER
1-class seating 290
Exit Limit 351
5,980nmi range

Quote: Nareed
But extending the single-aisle transatlantic flights to a small twin-aisle plane is a great idea, if Boeing ever does it.


AeroMexico used to use the B767 to fly TATL
MEX to
MAD 4903 nautical miles
CDG 4975 nautical miles
LHR 4815 nautical miles

Most US TATL flights are shorter than that. They intend to have at least 5000 nmi for the B797 but will probably have a long range version.

Trivia: 60*90=5400 nmi = 10,000 km gives you a one hemisphere range


Quote: Nareed
It depends on demand, slot restrictions and the like, I suppose.


The size of the B797 is not that much greater than the largest narrow bodies. I am not expecting massive use of slot restrictions in the USA. They barely enforce them for the most crowded urban airports.

But Spirit Airlines is flying an Airbus A321-200 WITH 228 cramped seats. Boeing is presenting the B797 as having roughly 250 seats in two classes. How do you tell an airport to use slot restrictions to push out the former in favor of the latter?
December 12th, 2017 at 5:18:14 AM permalink
Fleastiff
Member since: Oct 27, 2012
Threads: 50
Posts: 5142
Quote: Pacomartin
But Spirit Airlines is flying an Airbus A321-200 WITH 228 cramped seats. Boeing is presenting the B797 as having roughly 250 seats in two classes. How do you tell an airport to use slot restrictions to push out the former in favor of the latter?
You don't. Slot restrictions relate solely to time and space. If an airline chooses to utilize a certain slot with a plane with 228 sardines aboard, so be it. Its land fast, taxi fast, unload fast, re-load fast, get that plane the heck out of there fast. Nothing to do with whether its sardines, executives or frozen lobster.
December 12th, 2017 at 6:17:33 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11753
Quote: Pacomartin
AeroMexico used to use the B767 to fly TATL


So did Mexicana. I think it was one of their 767s that produced the wake turbulence that killed Camilo Mouriño.


Quote:
But Spirit Airlines is flying an Airbus A321-200 WITH 228 cramped seats. Boeing is presenting the B797 as having roughly 250 seats in two classes. How do you tell an airport to use slot restrictions to push out the former in favor of the latter?


On the grounds that Spirit is a fee factory and not a real airline? :)
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
December 15th, 2017 at 6:24:51 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 332
Posts: 11753
In the process of renewing their narrow body fleet, Delta placed an order for 100 A321neos, with options for 100 more. The order is worth about $12 billion net.

I'm not going to say this is a direct result of Boeing's actions to keep the C Series out, but it certainly didn't help. More realistically, the only Boeing plane comparable to the A321neo is the 737 MAX 10, which has yet to even fly. The A321neo is already in operation all over the world.

Canada's cancelling of an order for Boeing-made F/A-18 Super Hornets, now, that was retaliation against Boeing.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
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