Gigafactory

Quote: reno

Mercedes's push into electric cars is bigger than previously reported.

Quote: Motley Fool

Citing unnamed industry sources, German automotive trade publication Automobilwoche reported on Saturday that "more than six" new battery-electric Mercedes-Benz models are planned, including SUVs and crossovers, sedans, and compact cars.

There may be additional long-range compact electric cars under development for Daimler's Smart brand, the report said. The new battery-operated Mercedes-Benz are expected to come to market starting in 2018.

Audi plans to launch a dedicated electric model in 2018. Volvo plans a Model S rival, which will arrive in 2019 and share its underpinnings with the S90, V90 and XC90. Jaguar Land Rover is expected to debut a battery-powered concept in November at the Los Angeles Auto Show. And Porsche is spending US$1.12 billion to build an electric car.

Anyone can manufacture. Let's see how they sell.

Quote: AZDuffman

Anyone can manufacture. Let's see how they sell.

At the very bottom of this chart, compare each month in 2015 to each month in 2016. For example, total EV sales in August 2015 were 8,972. But by August 2016, that figure had jumped to 14,882. With the exception of one month, (May) electric car sales have been consistently higher in 2016. And for several of those months (March, June, July, August) the increase has been extraordinary.

Quote: AZDuffman

Time will tell if this is a bump they recover from or the whole house of cards gets knocked over. I find it interesting that the company was doing a stock offering. Sure, sell when the market is hot, but should they really need to dilute the stock already?

Musk at the least needs to learn how to handle a PR problem a lot better.

Let's assume that your assessment of Elon Musk is correct: he's a conman, and Tesla is a fraud. Furthermore, let's say that tomorrow the whole fragile house of cards comes tumbling down: Tesla goes out of business, and never manufactures another car ever again.

Then what? Will Mercedes, Chevrolet, Nissan, BMW, etc. all suddenly stop manufacturing electric cars? Will electric car sales suddenly plummet down to zero?

The flaw in your "Musk is a conman" paradigm is that it doesn't matter. Nissan and Chevrolet and BMW and Mercedes won't walk away from a growing market. If the market were shrinking, maybe they'd cut their losses. But this market is expanding, and it will continue to expand regardless of whether Musk is a prescient visionary or merely a deceitful huckster.

Worldwide EV sales 2014: 320,713
Worldwide EV sales 2015: 550,297
Worldwide EV sales 2016: 375,472 (January thru July)

Quote: reno

Worldwide EV sales 2014: 320,713
Worldwide EV sales 2015: 550,297
Worldwide EV sales 2016: 375,472 (January thru July)

Worldwide Automobile sales are over 60 million in 2015. So EV sales are 0.1% ,
Jan – Dec 2015 Region Jan – Dec 2014 %Change
20,047,200 China 18,368,900 9.1%
17,386,300 USA* 16,435,300 5.8%
14,201,900 Europe (EU+EFTA) 13,006,500 9.2%
4,215,900 Japan 4,699,600 -10.3%
2,480,500 Brazil* 3,333,400 -25.6%
2,772,700 India 2,570,500 7.9%
1,601,200 Russia* 2,491,400 -35.7%
Source: VDA

I imagine that EV sales will continue to grow at a good clip. But do you think they will reach 1% in the next five years (either USA or worldwide)?

Quote: Pacomartin

I imagine that EV sales will continue to grow at a good clip. But do you think they will reach 1% in the next five years (either USA or worldwide)?

Between October 2014 and October 2015, the number of public charging stations (12,700) in the U.S. increased by 27 percent. That growth makes EVs more practical.

Range of 2012 Nissan Leaf: 73 miles. Range of 2016 Nissan Leaf: 109 miles. That increase was modest, but it still made EVs more practical.

When it goes on sale in December 2016, the 2017 Chevy Bolt (not Volt) will be the same price as the Leaf but with a range of 200 miles. That increase is huge, and it will make EVs way more practical.

So yes, sales will exceed 1% in 5 years.

Quote: Pacomartin

I imagine that EV sales will continue to grow at a good clip. But do you think they will reach 1% in the next five years (either USA or worldwide)?

I'm starting to come around.

A lot of it is just being a recluse and all but refusing to go to the city (the "city", as I define it, is probably more "the 'burbs" to y'all, like a town of 25k+). I'm getting to see more things like sub-10 mile commutes to work, or sub-20 min commutes to any major service like a grocer or department store. Lot of daydreaming in my day, so I oft think of what these folks lives are like and what this way of living entails. And ya know, I can see places now, places it could work. When all of life's necessities are a reasonable bike ride away, even an absurdly low 100mi range is quite a bit more than you'd ever need on a given day. And especially in an actual city, ESPECIALLY especially an old world actual city like London or Rome, their micro size is probably the most superior option of all.

But I haven't budged on the climate aspect, as photons have to come from somewhere, and it's a disgusting process to make a zero emission vehicle.

I haven't budged on .gov subsidization, because survive on your own or die like you're supposed to.

And I won't ever budge on character, because some of us are car guys, and "hummmmm" just doesn't cut it.

But I'm coming 'round a bit. Especially since I feel something great can be done not only because of the insta-torque aspect of electro motors, but this might be the Big Push needed to revolutionize the battery game. And EVERYONE will benefit from that =)

Quote: reno

When it goes on sale in December 2016, the 2017 Chevy Bolt (not Volt) will be the same price as the Leaf but with a range of 200 miles. That increase is huge, and it will make EVs way more practical..

In the next 5 years, could you imagine a community of at least 500 homes where zoning favoring EV is enacted? I am not sure what form it would take as a total ban on gasoline vehicles would be very difficult. Maybe delivery trucks and moving vans would be allowed in the day, and only EV's at night. Would people be permitted to own gasoline vehicles on the outskirt of towns, or could they drive to the nearest shopping center and rent them? Would it be required to be only EV's, or would plug in hybrids that run on electrical for the first 10 miles be permitted.

It is possible that roads for each type of vehicle could be instituted, but it doesn't seem likely to me. In a sense before WWII we had alleyways where coal delivery and other dirty jobs could be handled. That included parking as the detached garage was popular before WWII. But it seems to me that after WWII most people expected an attached garage.

A particularly innovative idea would be mew type housing where the vehicles are stored in a common garage and can be summoned remotely to drive quietly down the mostly pedestrian street at a very slow speed (~3 mph) for loading. You would have to summon your vehicle maybe 15 minutes before you are ready to leave, but the slow speeds would permit safe pedestrian use of the front street.


The auto parking electric cars and mew homes would be a lower price alternative to the 132 unit condo in Florida where apartments start at $9 million. In this unit you could have your car brought up right to your apartment. Of course it is probably cheaper to purchase a regular multi million dollar apartment and pay someone to bring deliver your groceries.

Mew housing has never been super popular in the USA. One prominent exception is the streets in Philadelphia featured in the movie, the Sixth Sense. But these homes were mostly built before the automobile.

Quote: Pacomartin

I am not sure what form it would take as a total ban on gasoline vehicles would be very difficult.

BMW has already acknowledged that virtually every BMW sold in model year 2022 will be a plug-in (most will have gasoline range extenders.)

Why? Because Europe has some serious carbon dioxide restrictions coming in 2021.

Quote: Autocar UK

Car makers have to hit a fleet average CO2 output of 95g/km, with a range of between 85g/km and 110g/km for the various brands.

And that's just the beginning: an even stricter European fleet standard will go into effect in 2025.

This isn't necessarily bad news for the manufacturers. A typical gasoline car has 20,000 parts and a typical EV has only 7,000 parts. So in the long run, (once the price of batteries comes down), it will be much cheaper to manufacture an EV. I'm optimistic: between 2010 and 2015, the average cost per kilowatt hour (kWh) dropped from $1,000 to $350—a 65 percent plunge.

Quote: reno

The flaw in your "Musk is a conman" paradigm is that it doesn't matter. Nissan and Chevrolet and BMW and Mercedes won't walk away from a growing market. If the market were shrinking, maybe they'd cut their losses. But this market is expanding, and it will continue to expand regardless of whether Musk is a prescient visionary or merely a deceitful huckster.

Worldwide EV sales 2014: 320,713
Worldwide EV sales 2015: 550,297
Worldwide EV sales 2016: 375,472 (January thru July)

It has been said above in the thread and is the case, much of the growth is due to force of government. It is not practicality and price. On the range side, I see a similar thing to leases. People lease a car with a low mile cap figuring they do not drive as much as they do. I can see on EVs people underestimating the times they need the longer range and the ability to charge at the end of that range.

Beware markets that grow by government force, they can be paper tigers. As to Musk, I still see him as a con man throwing too many balls in the air and if the credit markets seize up to even normal from today's zero rates it as we now have then beware it all crashing around him.

Niche market? Sure. Mass market? Still loads of problems.

Quote: AZDuffman

It has been said above in the thread and is the case, much of the growth is due to force of government. It is not practicality and price. On the range side, I see a similar thing to leases. People lease a car with a low mile cap figuring they do not drive as much as they do. I can see on EVs people underestimating the times they need the longer range and the ability to charge at the end of that range.

That's an excellent analogy.

Quote: AZDuffman

Niche market? Sure. Mass market? Still loads of problems.

I was trying to think of compelling reasons to grow this market. The somewhat misplaced "environmental concern" will only go so far. The payback time in reduced fueling costs is measured in years, after which it is cancelled out by the resale value of an old battery. The wow factor of the high torque is impressive, but you average Joe is not going to spend a fortune on a car because it has a button that makes it take off like a rocket.

Limited remote control is certainly not unique to electric vehicles, but it is often associated with them. It does seem that there are millions of people who don't live in suburban homes with attached garages. They really want to be dropped off at their doorstep, or to be able to send for their car. This applies to many people in urban environments.

In 2012 the first million dollar parking spaces appeared in Manhattan. Now granted you don't pay that in lump sum cash, but even the monthly payments have to be high.

So a $100K car that you can summon from a parking space in NJ that will drive over to you apartment in Manhattan, signalling you the whole time as to the expected time of arrival would be a good option.

I know there are a lot of cheaper options, but people seem to want what they want. A friend of mine was living in a studio apartment in Manhattan making 10X what I was making. He kept a car similar to mine in a parking garage on the other end of Manhattan, for a parking fee which was higher than my rent. He almost never drove it because it was far away, and he was drunk or high a large percentage of evenings. So he made do on the subway or in taxis. I asked him how that was logical. Why not just rent a car when he was leaving Manhattan?

But people seem to want to own a car. So I think the ability to summon your car remotely might be the ticket to making the niche bigger, if not making it a mass market item.