State of the Economy

Quote: Tanko

'Mark Zuckerberg warns in layoffs announcement to prepare for a 'new economic reality' that could last 'many years'

Going with a Mark Zuckerberg prediction?????
Why
He recently lost billions betting on Virtual Reality as the next big thing

Quote: terapined

Quote: Tanko

'Mark Zuckerberg warns in layoffs announcement to prepare for a 'new economic reality' that could last 'many years'

Going with a Mark Zuckerberg prediction?????
Why
He recently lost billions betting on Virtual Reality as the next big thing

I expect we will have 12 to 24 months of a down economy just because of the inflation from the Covid stimulus.

The only thing dumber than the states who shut down the better part of retail/hospitality for several months was the expanded unemployment/stimulus money. That's especially true of the expanded unemployment which, if you're going to do at all, should have at least been done only to the extent of making people whole for the period of time during which they were unemployed. The number of people who made more money NOT working during the pandemic might have been the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen.

The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February.
The unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.6%
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased by 0.1% in February; not much of a decrease at all.

In January of 2023 the unemployment rate inched lower to 3.4%; THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY OF 1969, ALMOST 54 YEARS.


sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and tradingeconomics.com


https://www.bls.gov/ces/

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate



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One can see the bearish head and shoulders formation at the top (the head around the year 2000).

I'd expect the current rate of 62.5% to drop to about 58% or so (strong support).

But notice the rate depends on the population survey and likely doesn't account for all the illegals.

So generally, I see this as a dead cat bounce.

Now, if you're a working white man, the percentage change is more drastic.

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Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART)

Mar 10, 2023

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART/

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Quote: PotPie

The U.S. added 311,000 jobs in February.
The unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.6%
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased by 0.1% in February; not much of a decrease at all.

In January of 2023 the unemployment rate inched lower to 3.4%; THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY OF 1969, ALMOST 54 YEARS.


sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and tradingeconomics.com


https://www.bls.gov/ces/

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate



.

Remember that the unemployment rate is of those actively seeking work. We already know that all the free money has created millions of people who no longer feel like working. That is what has taken the rate down and created a shortage of workers. The percentage of people working in the US used to run about 63% it dropped to 58.5% in 2008 recovered some and then hit 57.5% during Covid. It is only back to 60% now.

Add the missing 3% and you are at 6.4% unemployment.

Quote: kenarman

Remember that the unemployment rate is of those actively seeking work. We already know that all the free money has created millions of people who no longer feel like working. That is what has taken the rate down and created a shortage of workers. The percentage of people working in the US used to run about 63% it dropped to 58.5% in 2008 recovered some and then hit 57.5% during Covid. It is only back to 60% now.

Add the missing 3% and you are at 6.4% unemployment.

Just curious, but how does what you "feel like" pay bills? I think lots of people would feel like being independently wealthy at 20 years old given the chance. I doubt if the idea made much difference as to whether they still had to work.

Quote: rxwine

Just curious, but how does what you "feel like" pay bills? I think lots of people would feel like being independently wealthy at 20 years old given the chance. I doubt if the idea made much difference as to whether they still had to work.

Are we addressing those two particular words in the post because everything else was objectively correct?

Quote: kenarman

Remember that the unemployment rate is of those actively seeking work. We already know that all the free money has created millions of people who no longer feel like working. That is what has taken the rate down and created a shortage of workers. The percentage of people working in the US used to run about 63% it dropped to 58.5% in 2008 recovered some and then hit 57.5% during Covid. It is only back to 60% now.

Add the missing 3% and you are at 6.4% unemployment.

The unemployment rate has always been considered the most important statistic re this matter.

The most important factor influencing the % of people working is the aging of the population.

In the year 2000 only 31% of the population was between 65 and 84.

In 2020 47% of the population was between 65 and 84.

And in 2000 there was 4% of the population who were over the age of 85.

In 2020 there was 7% of the population over the age of 85



https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/program-retirement-policy/projects/data-warehouse/what-future-holds/us-population-aging

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Quote: PotPie

The unemployment rate has always been considered the most important statistic re this matter.

The most important factor influencing the % of people working is the aging of the population.

In the year 2000 only 31% of the population was over 65.

In 2020 47% of the population was over 65.

And in 2020 there were 75% more people than in 2000 who were over the age of 85.


https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/program-retirement-policy/projects/data-warehouse/what-future-holds/us-population-aging

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The Social Security Administration is going to care FAR more about the Labor Force Participation Rate here in the very near future. In fact, everyone would do well to pay more heed to that and less to unemployment.

Also, didn't it used to be called, "Workforce Participation Rate," or am I losing my mind?