AirAsia- Indonesia Jet Lost in Java Sea

Quote: Wizard

I think we need a third thread devoted to the latest Asian air disaster/mystery.

Disaster yes, mystery, not for long.

MH370 is still being hunted by Australian assets with the latest estimate that splashdown point was at extreme westerly end of current search swath. Nothing much will happen on that for awhile, due shore leaves and equipment repair for ships on station.

The latest Indonesia to Singapore will be a study in cultures and acceptable credentials. Many airlines in the area have P2F Pay to Fly in other words Paying Guests are the First Officers. Some Oriental airlines even have Pay to Upgrade... you are a FO and want to be a Captain then PAY your airline to upgrade you.

Inflight breakup due to turbulence means someone delayed going up to take a look. Major deviations left or right means someone delayed on the minor deviations until the weather got too rough. WX radar can be deceptive, intense cells can be hidden.

Air Asia Java Sea:

In flight break up due to overstressed control surfaces seems very unlikely given the reports of the plane being in one place and relatively intact. So flight into turbulence, always low on the totem pole, is now moved even lower.

Most likely was an accelerated stall at high altitude with Airbuss suddenly throwing the plane into alternate law so that the pilots have to fly the plane ... and they simply don't know how to that. Pitot tubes ice up, air speed guages decay, plane raises nose to slow itself from resultant overspeed situation it imagines itself to be in when in reality its just the airspeed reporting discrepancy. Stall warning sounds and pilots are so used to button pushing they just don't know to lower the nose and regain airspeed since guages are still telling them they are going too fast. AF447 all over again. Needlessly.

Double flameout due to massive water ingestion is unlikely and would have given plenty of time for pilots to grab the radio.

The final report should list the simulator experiences they had ... accelerated stall near the coffin corner should be one of them, particularly after AF447.

The purpose of all the time and money investigating accidents is the theory that no one should die in vain, instead the state of knowledge should be advanced.

Yet, here we are. Systems do not change. Training doesn't change. Pay 2 Fly and the like continue. Budget carrier possibly doing its best with what it has.

Black Boxes have been deemed to be LOCATED but not yet RETRIEVED. Awaiting more favorable recovery conditions for divers.

Quote: Fleastiff

Yet, here we are. Systems do not change. Training doesn't change. Pay 2 Fly and the like continue. Budget carrier possibly doing its best with what it has.

At the risk of being cynical, Airbus makes 42 A320's a month. They have the capacity of less than 4 land buses. Terrible land bus accidents happen all the time. As do train and ferry accidents. Is it unrealistic to think that the world can train and maintain the fleet of jets so there are no accidents.

>At the risk of being cynical,
We prefer to think of you as being realistic,

> Airbus makes 42 A320's a month. They have the capacity of less than 4 land buses.
>Terrible land bus accidents happen all the time.
Well not all the time but they do make the press often.
Often its mechanical: tires and brakes, hoses, etc.
Often its road conditions. Snow, ice, speed.
Often its driver fatigue so we enforce rest breaks and employee scheduling.

>As do train and ferry accidents.
Yep, though we do try to minimize those sometimes compelling railroads to spend a million dollars to save one life per year. Always compelling ferries to follow an exaggerated course. Weight and loading limitations, etc.

>Is it unrealistic to think that the world can train and maintain the fleet of jets so there are no accidents.
Well, that is the goal. Training exercises, simulators, route checks. exhaustive investigations.

Most accidents lead to "pilot error' conclusions but a good deal of it is SYSTEMIC pilot error since safety margins are eroded. All the pilots are exhausted but the youngest with the worst schedules are the ones that crash first. All the pilots are inexperienced but the ones on the cheapie airlines will crash first because they are the worst trained. Or look at AF 447... Air France has the lowest ratio of instructors to pilots.

Quote: Fleastiff

Well, that is the goal. Training exercises, simulators, route checks. exhaustive investigations.

In the case of USA carriers it has been pretty impressive. It's been over 13 years since the last accident where 100 or more people died: 265 deaths 12 Nov 2001 Belle Harbor, Queens, New York - American Airlines on an A300

But on an international level, horrible accidents occur all the time in any mode of transportation. I mean the goal is hypothetically not to have anyone in the world die in a train, boat, or airplane crash.

Quote: Pacomartin

In the case of USA carriers it has been pretty impressive. It's been over 13 years since the last accident where 100 or more people died: 265 deaths 12 Nov 2001 Belle Harbor, Queens, New York - American Airlines on an A300

But on an international level, horrible accidents occur all the time in any mode of transportation. I mean the goal is hypothetically not to have anyone in the world die in a train, boat, or airplane crash.

I feel comfortable boarding an airbus.
A few weeks ago, as I was boarding the plane, gave the plane a couple pats on the outside as I was stepping in. I do it all the time kind of a good luck charm similar to patting somebody on the back. This time the Captain saw me and smiled and said he does the same thing :-)

Cant wait to here and know what info is in the black boxes.

Quote: terapined

I feel comfortable boarding an airbus.

I prefer a "Its Boeing, or I ain't going" attitude. Though in reality it really does not matter much. I just think pilots should be in control rather than a computer. When things go wrong, we need pilots, not button pushers who've never flown an airplane by the seat of their pants. Think of the Gimli Glider incident. Lots of contributing factors, metric versus English confusion, unhelpful ATC, political stuff... but the pilot flew gliders on his days off. So he knew what to do in extreme circumstances. Nowadays, with safety margins being sliced thiner and thiner by low cost carriers you have pilots who don't even know how to recover from a stall.

Anyway, they have indeed recovered the FDR and located but not retrieved the CVR.

Quote: terapined

A few weeks ago, as I was boarding the plane, gave the plane a couple pats on the outside as I was stepping in. I do it all the time kind of a good luck charm similar to patting somebody on the back. This time the Captain saw me and smiled and said he does the same thing :-)

I like to touch the fuselage before I step in.

But sometimes I just forget to do it.