Deal or No Deal -- What would you do?

Quote: rxwine

You know the other thing about that deal. Look how many million dollar suitcases started on the board.

I noticed that too. Very generous of them. He had an expected win of over $269,000 going into the game.

Quote: Wizard

They don't normally. That contestant mentioned something about $10,000 but I didn't know what he was talking about. He may have told some sob story about something and they gave him $10,000 free and clear out of sympathy.

I noticed that, but don't remember there being such a thing at the end. Have no idea what it was about.

I guess I could put it in "remember when", but it was always sort of funny in all the old game shows, they used to give the losers the "home game" to take home.
Yeah, like, now that you've lost they give you the home version.

One more comment about this game. I think there have been 2, maybe 3 versions made into casino games.

I have to say, I didn't mind so much you had to play a regular slot game to get to the suitcase game, but the designer of the game really ruined it for me by offering such miniscule levels of cash. I believe that's why I ended up hating it after I played.

Why not go big and offer at least a $1000 in the suitcase bonus for the big case. I think the one I played was like $120 or maybe 200 tops. Very disappointing.

No soup for you game designer. You suck.

Could I phone a friend? If so I would call Even bob and do the opposite of what he tells me :)

I would take the deal for sure

Quote: Wizard

But the expected value of your case is $500,000.50. The Banker's offer is $84,000 short of that.

I think "expected value" is merely a "technically correct" term(*).

What I see here is a 50/50 chance of winning $1. The deal is a safe option.

Consider it this way:

Suppose you're terminally ill and have at most 10 years to live with the usual treatment (think of AIDS or chronic degenerative conditions like ALS). There is an experimental treatment which has a 50/50 chance of resulting in a full cure, but it could also result in your death within a year. Would you give up ten years for such odds?

Very likely not, right? Within those ten years better treatments might come along.

Back to the game, a certain $400+ K payment is easier to turn into $1 million within a few years than a $1 payment. Take the offer.

(*) Only bureaucrats think "technically correct" is "The best kind of correct." See Futurama ;)

I'm not sure expected value plays into this. I agree with Nareed.

You have $416,000. Would you place it on a 50/50 chance for either $1,000,000 or $1? You might, because of expected value, but I'm keeping my $416,000. This guy was an idiot.

Quote: Mosca

I agree with Nareed.

That's a useful habit to pick up ;)