Self-driving cars--overhyped?

I follow some auto news and do it even more with my current job having us in a holding pattern. There is talk left and right about self-driving cars. One company will say they are 10 years away at most, another says a generation. And the claims are just amazing. I have heard from as little as traffic-jam assist where the car will crawl to claims that we will not "own" cars anymore but will simply summon them when needed.

I wish I could find the article I saw today on MSN. It made the later claim and said that only fuddie-duddiesw will keep owning in a generation. I have heard claims that the self-drivers will expand sprawl because you can do other things when you are driving and will not care about the commute. That traffic will move faster. All the will not do is get Lori Grunier to dump her husband for me.

I see a classic case of over-hype. What do you all see?

Quote: AZDuffman

Right now they have twice as many
accidents as driver cars. It's mostly
people running into them because
they obey the letter of the law and
drivers are more flexible. The only
way driverless will work is if all the
cars on a road are driverless. They
will have special lanes on freeways
for them. There is a big push by
corporations for these vehicles because
they eliminate a costly expense,
highly paid professional drivers like
my brother.

Yeah, I could imagine it, but just barely. Definitely not in the middle of town, but on interstates? Fast lane, slow lane... and "train lane". Long road trip, freight, long distance livery, they all could just connect to the system and be toted along the train lane. But any other scenario just seems too impossible.

Even if so, it'll take forever to catch on. Driving is just too American. Commuting is dumb, but many Americans like to drive. Most of their care and concern is their car. They're not just going to give it up. You'd have to be born in a time when driverless was at least a strong minority of cars out there, and that's 20 years out even if the tech was available tomorrow.

It'll be awhile.

I think the younger people on this site will see a day when the majority of the cars are driverless. I would be very shocked if it was in my lifetime.

Quote: DRich

I would be very shocked if it was in my lifetime.

I think there will be a driverless lane on I80 for less than 100 miles from Berkeley to Sacramento in five years. Speeds of over 100 mph may be routine.

Here is the article I saw.

I just am not buying the hype.

Quote: AZDuffman

Here is the article I saw.

I just am not buying the hype.

The whole point of having a car is
the convenience of it. It's right
there when you need it. That's not
going anywhere, ever. In big cities
like NY, nobody has a car anyway.
I always thought it odd on Seinfeld
that all of them had cars. It costs
an arm and a leg to own a car in NYC,
none of them would have had one.

Quote: Evenbob

The whole point of having a car is
the convenience of it. It's right
there when you need it. That's not
going anywhere, ever. In big cities
like NY, nobody has a car anyway.

I've known people in cities that just used Zipcar or other methods. I can see it there. What these media types miss is that yes, my car may sit 23 hours a day. Well, mine rarely does, but it may sit 18-20. But as you say, when I need it I want it NOW. Plus I want to keep my stuff in it. If I need to take heavy things to work I want to leave them in the car. If I take kids or a dog I want their various items in the car.

I feel it will be 20+ years to work all the self-driving issues out. Probably will never get 100% autonomy. Anyone who thinks we will has never driven some of the back roads I have.

There are a lot of predictions about the future, most of them are wrong. Look at those older popular science magazines.

I think this prediction of only a few owning cars is one such fantastic prediction that will not become true any time soon, and certainly not within 20-25 years.

The self-driving car is very close to being real, I think. Small steps at first, but imagine the convenience of getting on the highway and turning on the autopilot, and having the car notify you when you are near your exit so you can take over again. You could read the paper (those still exist, right?) have your coffee, do some work before you get to the office, like checking your email.

Door-to-door self-driving cars I think are still a long way off.

In the 50's they had us convinced this
was in our near future. We're still waiting.