Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: ams288

It's his typical strategy whenever he makes a big gaffe - "I didn't make a mistake! The media is dishonest!"

He's doomed in November.

Hopefully the Republican party goes down with him. And good riddance.

It's typical of Trump, make a dog whistle type comment, watch the left side of the media bark about it, point and chuckle at them.... his core support loves this when it happens, as it reinforces their distrust of the mass media anyways.

It was the same with the Russia hacking comment. He likes to make comments and jokes. Taking them seriously is probably not worth the time.

For those of you who are picking Trump to win, how precisely do you think he will do it? It is difficult to win without Florida, but one scenario is posted below. The table below shows the 12 states that Trump says he will campaign in for 2016 and the outcome in 2012.



One possible scenario Trump wins election if he wins (24 states that did not vote for Obama) + Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Idaho plus 2 out of 3 of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Under this scenario Trump loses the states of FL, CO, VA, NV with high minority populations, plus the two New England states of Maine and New Hampshire. If he wins NH, then he will just win by a larger percentage.

The scenario may not be valid, as FL, VA, and CO were close calls in 2012. The demographics of the state have not changed that much in four years, but the scenario presumes that Trump has even less appeal than Romney to the Latino and Minority voter.

If Trump loses all 12 states than it will be a repeat of the 2012 election with Democrats 332 and Republicans 206 electoral college votes.

Quote: Pacomartin

For those of you who are picking Trump to win, how precisely do you think he will do it?

Apparently it involves being investigated by the Secret Service.

Protection details are the most humorless people in the world.

Quote:

The demographics of the state have not changed that much in four years, but the scenario presumes that Trump has even less appeal than ROmney to the Latino and Minority voter.

More like no appeal to Latino, women and minority voters.

I've begun to see rumblings from longtime Republican voters for the need to either reform the party or to write it off and set up a new one.

As yet it's a few people on social media, nothing more. And it's not likely to grow into a mass movement any time soon. More likely the GOP establishment will make a lot of noise about keeping people like Trump out from now on. Or they'll cater to the Trumpkins and strip his notions of raw racism, misogyny, and bigotry and claim them as their own. If they do the latter, I can see a mass grass-roots movement of fiscal conservatives making a lot of noise culminating in a new party, particularly if they can take some seating member of the Senate and House with them.

Quote: Nareed

More like no appeal to Latino, women and minority voters.

As I said before GW Bush got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 (a GOP high).

But the count in 2012 for Texas was
4,569,843 Romney 57.17%
3,308,124 Obama 41.38%
It's a big enough margin that Trump does not find it necessary to campaign in Texas. But if Trump only wins Texas by a few percentage points than the GOP will simply find it necessary to change their tactics to appeal to Latino vote. If the GOP starts losing Texas than they simply will never win the Presidency again.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/2010_US_Census_Hispanic_Population_by_County.svg
Latino population (Census Department)
1960 5,814,784
1970 8,920,940
1980 14,608,673
1990 22,354,059
2000 35,305,818
2010 50,477,594
2014 55,387,539 Est.

Latino Vote
New Mexico 40.4%
Texas 28.1%
California 28.0%
Arizona 21.5%
Florida 18.1%
Nevada 17.2%
Colorado 14.5%
New York 13.8%
New Jersey 13.6%
Connecticut 10.8%
Illinois 10.5%


The 11 largest states are enough EV to win the election (digit following state number is expected change in 2024)
55 California 1 ?
38 Texas 2
29 Florida 1
29 New York -1
20 Illinois -1
20 Pennsylvania -1
18 Ohio -1
16 Michigan -1
16 Georgia 0
15 North Carolina 1
14 New Jersey 0
270

After the next census the 11 largest states are will probably be enough EV to at least tie the election

Quote: Pacomartin

As I said before GW Bush got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 (a GOP high).

As I said, he courted their vote.

It's all well and good for mainstream Republicans to make a distinction between legal and illegal immigrants from Latin America. But 1) the government programs to root out the illegals, will affect legal immigrants and even third- and fourth-generation Latinos, and even those whose families have been living in the US since the XIX Century, and 2) the generalized prejudice from rhetoric, never mind action, affects them all as well.

They also don't seem to know, or care, that there simply is NO path for legal immigration for about 90% of the people who want to immigrate to the US. And even some of the legal means are absurd. It can take a skilled worker or an engineer literally decades to be able to get into the US. What hope for almost everyone else?

At the same time there is demand for immigrant labor. If there wasn't, then 1) unemployment would be much, much higher, and 2) few immigrants would stay in the US longer than a couple of months.

So as long as the GOP doesn't even consider the possibility of 1) not kicking out all illegals and 2) letting other immigrants in, they'll keep scoring very low with a fast-growing minority.

BTW, Cruz and Rubio, naturally, could have exceeded W's totals, fi they didn't go off the bend.

Is it possible that Hillary gets a higher percentage of the African American vote in November than Obama did in his elections? Wouldn't that be ironic?

Only a horrible candidate like Trump could make that happen...

Quote: ams288

Is it possible that Hillary gets a higher percentage of the African American vote in November than Obama did in his elections? Wouldn't that be ironic?

According to recent news, Trump doesn't poll in second place with African American voters.

He scores in at fourth place.

That means he'll likely get a smaller share of the African American vote than Jill Stein or Gary Johnson.


Also according to recent news, Trump is fast losing support among Republican women. I suppose that's ok, as Republican women can't possibly be a traditional Republican voting block, can they? ;)

Trump's brilliant strategy to alienate minorities and women should make a for a big Electoral College victory, for Hillary Clinton.

Quote:

Only a horrible candidate like Trump could make that happen...

By now his best strategy would be to cloister himself in a Himalayan monastery until the day after the election. Provided the monks are willing to tie him to a chair 24/7 and keep him completely cut off from the outside world.

Let's put the partisanship to the side for a moment. What do people honestly think the electoral college count might look like here?

Quote: Aussie

Let's put the partisanship to the side for a moment. What do people honestly think the electoral college count might look like here?

General vote, I predict Clinton tops Trump by 8 % points
Electoral college will be a landslide, she will get more then the 365 Obama got in 2008

Clinton is running a smart campaign making it all about Trump
Trump is running the worst presidential campaign ever. He should be making this all about Clinton. In reality he is making it all about Trump which is what the Clinton campaign wants.

Its going to get worse for Trump
as to the debates
Clinton is saying bring it on
I doubt Trump will debate, he is just to scared and that's not going to play well

Quote: Aussie

Let's put the partisanship to the side for a moment. What do people honestly think the electoral college count might look like here?

Not as astonishing as Reagan v Mondale in 84.

Had the Democrats come up with a less objectionable candidate (Clinton has BIG negative ratings), then they might have won over 40 states. Why no one else with a good chance ran this time is beyond me. Now they'll have to wait 8 years.