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immigration and the midterm elections
| June 22nd, 2018 at 9:00:50 AM permalink | |
| reno Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 58 Posts: 1384 | This morning, Trump posted the following message on Twitter: “Republicans should stop wasting their time on Immigration until after we elect more Senators and Congressmen/women in November,” Trump wrote. “Dems are just playing games, have no intention of doing anything to solves this decades old problem. We can pass great legislation after the Red Wave!” Let's look at the historical data: regardless of party and regardless of popularity, every President's party is virtually guaranteed to lose seats in the midterm election. Between 1938 and 2014, a President has only gained seats in both the Senate & the House once: 2002. So an immigration bill passed in 2019 won't be nearly as Trumptastic as a bill passed this summer. To be fair, Trump knows exactly what he's doing; this tweet isn't a mistake. He needs an incentive to get his supporters to turn out in November, and promising the rubes a "great" immigration bill is the perfect motivator to rally his supporters to vote in November. He probably figures that he's guaranteed to lose a few seats, but with good voter turn out, he can minimize the damage. (He's right.) Trump doesn't personally care about immigration; on the contrary, he cares only about maintaining his political power. He's lying to his base, but luckily they trust him enough not to second guess his lie.  |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 9:06:33 AM permalink | |
| Fleastiff Member since: Oct 27, 2012 Threads: 62 Posts: 7831 | History is bunk! |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 10:12:09 AM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12534 | Red wave? Must be talking about the blood of all the GOP congressmen who are gonna be getting killed*. *AT THE POLLS “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 10:49:31 AM permalink | |
| Dalex64 Member since: Mar 8, 2014 Threads: 3 Posts: 3687 | So, he can't be effective with a majority in both chambers of congress. "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 12:06:48 PM permalink | |
| ams288 Member since: Apr 21, 2016 Threads: 29 Posts: 12534 |
Correct. The house failed the pass the GOP immigration bill they were working on. They've got a big majority in the house... it's not like he can blame the filibuster rule like he does when the Senate fails to pass something. So much for "I alone can fix it." “A straight man will not go for kids.” - AZDuffman |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 2:49:16 PM permalink | |
| reno Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 58 Posts: 1384 |
He shouldn't throw in the towel so quickly. It's only June, and he wants to wait until 2019? Granted, those turkeys in Congress take long vacations, but he should challenge them to stay put and work 18 hour days, 7 days a week between now & November to pass a "great" immigration bill. If the problem is as serious as Trump claims it is, he should never give up. Blaming all our ills on immigrants (crime, unemployment, drugs, school funding, welfare rolls) is an easy way to rile up the base, get 'em outraged, and get 'em out to vote. The last thing Trump would want to do is fix immigration; he'd be killing the golden goose that got him elected in the first place. |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 5:20:17 PM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
Since election day in 2016 Republicans have lost 6 seats and Democrats have lost 1 (7 vacancies). I think it is a given that the Democrats will make gains in the House, but will probably lose in the Senate. All Trump cares about is maintaining the majority (of course). |
| June 22nd, 2018 at 5:42:02 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 |
Totally depends on voter turnout. Trump voters are really jazzed, they might turn out in hoards. Look at the recent rallies, jam packed and thousands outside who can't get in. If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| June 23rd, 2018 at 12:21:23 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
All elections depend on voter turnout. But if the POTUS's party lost seats in 18 out of 20 of the last mid term elections, it seems obvious that the voter turnout for the annoyed people is always stronger.
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