The world inside

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June 30th, 2018 at 7:02:58 PM permalink
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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Quote: AZDuffman
Most of Europe has been sub-replacement for many years. But what will happen IMHO is when places like Africa have a fertility rate decline it will be much faster as they emulate the west, wheras the west had to pave the way.

Uganda had their TFR drop from 7.4 to 5.4 over a period of 35 years.

TFR in the USA in 1800 was 7.0 for whites, and not estimated for blacks.

TFR in the USA in 1850 was 5.42 for whites and 7.90 for blacks when the life expectancy was 39.5 for whites and 23.0 blacks. Infant mortality was over 20% for whites and over 34% for blacks.

TFR in the USA in 1960 was 3.53 for whites and 4.52 for blacks when the life expectancy was 70.7 for whites and 63.9 blacks.

TFR dipped below 2 in the USA for whites in the 1970s when contraceptive became common until immigration brought it back up over 2 for whites.

The high death rate in large cities began to change by about the 1890s, when the largest cities instituted new public works sanitation projects (such as piped water, sewer systems, filtration and chlorination of water) and public health administration.

China went from a population of 1 billion circa 1980 and will top off at 1.4 billion in a few years due to one child policy.

Africa went from 1 billion in 2008 to the present 1.287 billion in only a decade. The US census department predicts that 1 in 4 people will be African by 2050.
The population of the more developed countries will increase at a blistering 0.073% per year (that includes current estimates of immigration) for the next 32 years. The African population will increase by 2% if using current death rates.
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