Future of Commercial TV

Quote: boymimbo

It actually means the NBC sucks.

Byron Allen (born April 22, 1961 in Detroit, Michigan), produces, distributes, and sells advertising for 32 television series,including two weekly primetime sitcoms that : The First Family and Mr. Box Office.He also launch a portfolio of six 24-hour HD television networks simultaneously. The six networks include Pets.TV, Comedy.TV, Recipe.TV, Cars.TV, ES.TV, and MyDestination.TV.

The concept behind these shows is that he makes them for ultra cheap, give them to networks for free in exchange for half the advertising revenue.

Sometimes I think NBC is headed in that direction.

What role does Utube play in all this narrow casting stuff?

One German girl recently flew to Panama to buy a decrepit yacht, repair it and sail it back to Germany.
Meanwhile its once a week documentaries about her adventures.
Some probably tune in for a twenty something wearing a bikini. Some probably tune in for someone with an entrepreneurial spirit. But it seems that with two regular sponsors and a few product placements people can do well with these narrow channels.

Quote: Fleastiff

What role does Utube play in all this narrow casting stuff?

One German girl recently flew to Panama to buy a decrepit yacht, repair it and sail it back to Germany.
Meanwhile its once a week documentaries about her adventures.
Some probably tune in for a twenty something wearing a bikini. Some probably tune in for someone with an entrepreneurial spirit. But it seems that with two regular sponsors and a few product placements people can do well with these narrow channels.

YouTube has been amazing this way. I watch a channel on gardening where the guy scratches out a modest income but enough to at least partially live on. He even gives out seeds every winter to any fan that asks. There are a few I follow, enough that I would say YT is about 10% responsible for me cutting the cord.

YT might get us back to "locally" produced shows but the "local" instead of being geographic will mean just an narrow interest group. It once was where a UHF channel would produce some local shows on their own or else use a "franchises" local show like Bozo the Clown and pull in <100K local viewers but still make money. YT has the benefit of lower overhead and the ad if embedded lasts "forever." I've been saying this will happen for about two years now. YT channels will replace the cable tv minichannels they force down your throat but nobody watches and will become a recruiting ground for talent for "real TV."

Quote: Fleastiff

What role does Utube play in all this narrow casting stuff?.

Youtube is expected to record $5.6 billion in gross revenue in 2013, according to estimates from eMarketer. That's up 51% from last year and would equate to 11% of Google's total ad revenues. That figure does not include money YouTube passes on to advertising partners and content creators. This year Google will keep 35% of that total or $1.96 billion, according to eMarketer's estimate.

In contrast for the year ending September 28, 2013 ABC had revenue of $5.9 billion. ABC has smaller revenue than CBS, NBC, or FOX because ESPN carries the sports programming. ESPN has revenue of close to $10 billion (of which 2/3 is from cable fees). Naturally income before taxes is more important than revenue.

CBS with the most popular shows in broadcast, and the least corporate vested interest in cable networks, has the most to lose if Aereo and other companies collapse the broadcast industry.

Official season ratings ranked by total viewers

Official season ratings ranked by 18-49 age viewers

Sunday night Football brought in nearly 10 million P18-49 viewers, while The Big Bang Theory averaged nearly 8 million P18-49 viewers. All other shows are 6 million and under. NBC won the demographic overall based on Sunday Night Football, The Voice, and The Blacklist (thriller that follows The Voice).

The Big Bang Theory inched over NCIS in Total Viewers by 1%. It means they are the highest rated scripted show (comedy or drama) in both categories. They are only beaten by Sunday Night Football. The 1% lead in total viewers is much less important than the 88% lead in P18-49.

The Big Bang Theory leads the second ranked P18-49 scripted show, Modern Family, by 40%.

Mindy Project with 3.403 million viewers was the lowest overall rated show to be renewed by the Big 4. The Crazy Ones (Robin Williams) with 9.8407 million viewers was the show with the highest ratings to be cancelled,

WTF? It has to mean Williams dropped out of the show.

Quote: Evenbob

WTF? It has to mean Williams dropped out of the show.

No, Williams needs the money. He is trying to sell his Napa Valley Ranch for $30 million. Between his alcoholism and his two divorces he is nearly bankrupt. Although he is one of the top 10 in highest grossing films, he doesn't have the international appeal of his compatriots (like Tom Cruise, Johnny Depp, Tom Hanks, Bruce Willis)

Two years ago the top 23 shows had 12 million or more viewers.
Last year the top 18 shows had 12 million or more viewers,
This year the top 15 shows had 12 million or more viewers.

Now we have 5 shows with over 15 million viewers, whereas four years ago there was 10 shows.


I thought that a by-product of cutting the cable cord and watching Netflix is that there would be a revival of TV that can be seen with an antenna. It looks like that is not going to happen.

Something new is that there is only one hour in all of Prime Time where Big 4 networks will be competing half hour shows. NBC is competing Marry Me (new) and About a Boy (13 episodes aired) on Tuesday at 9 PM against Fox's older but weaker sitcoms New Girl and The Mindy Project . Other than that hour networks are only competing 60 minute shows.

In general, the 30 minute broadcast show (primarily sitcoms) continues to vanish from TV. Two and a Half Men and Parks and Recreation will also terminate after next season.

Quote: Pacomartin

I thought that a by-product of cutting the cable cord and watching Netflix is that there would be a revival of TV that can be seen with an antenna. It looks like that is not going to happen.

No, because Netflix has made us binge viewers. The networks are merely sucking the last bits of life from a dead business model. Said model may decline 20 more years, but dead it is.

Quote: AZDuffman

No, because Netflix has made us binge viewers. The networks are merely sucking the last bits of life from a dead business model. Said model may decline 20 more years, but dead it is.

On June 12, 2009, television stations in the United States completed the transition from analog to digital broadcasting. Consumers receiving local television signals over analog antennas were required to use converter boxes to receive programming on their TVs. Of course digital broadcasts mean companies like Aereo can successfully capture the signal and transmit over the internet.



The conversion to digital broadcast is a good example of a government mandated effort to extend the life of an industry. If, in fact, we should have been moving towards digital media distribution, then it would have been better to put over the air on a planned timeline to death, and re-use the frequencies on healthier industries.