Compromise of 1877

In US Presidential election history, the only election to be resolved by an informal deal is known as the Compromise of 1877.

In dispute were 20 electoral votes that could not be determined by the inauguration date. The Presidency was given to the Republican candidate, Rutherford Hayes. In return

• Hayes agreed to serve only a single term
• The Republicans agreed to withdraw federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction.

The Compromise in effect ceded power in the Southern states to the Democratic Redeemers, who proceeded to disenfranchise black voters.

A terrible black mark on US history.

While there is a possibility that Trump will lose big time in November (Florida and Ohio, plus other states), the more likely outcome is that if Trump loses, he will lose the three "blue wall" states that he won in 2016, but have been voting Democratic since the Reagan era. These three states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 without being shown ahead in a single poll before the election.

While these three states would give a Democratic victory by 8 votes (i.e. Wisconsin has 8 representatives), it is almost certain that the Trump campaign is prepared to dispute the results and delay the change of power past the normal inauguration date of 20 January 2021.

The possibility of troops escorting Donald Trump and his family out of the White House seems unlikely. The more likely outcome is a Compromise like the one done in 1877.

What do you think Trump will require to peacefully leave the White House (under this scenario of a Trump loss by a single state and disputed results)?

In order for any dispute to have "legs", something like the hanging chad from 2000 would have to happen. Barring a real set of circumstances worthy of numerous court challenges, the courts would quickly dispose of any challenges to the outcome without a real basis.

I think there is more of a chance for something like that to happen should a state quickly adopt mail-in ballots with little control. Yes, we have always had absentee ballots and some states that have main-in voting, but they have proven procedures. There are always problems with solutions done quickly.

I believe the President will leave office peacefully and on time should he lose. I think Biden will forget there was even an election before the night is over if he loses.

Just kidding...I believe we will have the usual peaceful transition of power. Hopefully, in 2025!

Nobody takes any this seriously
since Hillary screamed in 16
that Trump would never admit
defeat and it was HER that has
been disputing the outcome
the last 4 years.

Quote: RonC

Just kidding...I believe we will have the usual peaceful transition of power. Hopefully, in 2025!

These are the three blue wall states (46 votes) that Trump won in 2016 by less than 1%. All three seem to be leaning Democrat again
20 PA
16 MI
10 WI
If Trump loses just these three, then he will protest. He can afford to lose PA and MI, but if he wins WI then he wins the election (by 2 votes).

These states (91 votes) that Trump won in 2016 are now considered battleground states again. If Trump loses one or several of these states, then he may not protest.
29 FL
18 OH
16 GA
15 NC
11 AZ
1 ME district
1 NE district

Quote: Evenbob

Nobody takes any this seriously
since Hillary screamed in 16
that Trump would never admit
defeat and it was HER that has
been disputing the outcome
the last 4 years.

Almost as bad as Algore in 2000. Democrats are the ones who do not accept the loss when they lose. Yet they ask if Trump will?

In my large personal bets on the 2020 election, it was stipulated the "winner" is the one who takes the oath of office.

I think the worst case scenario is the Supreme Court will have to step in again and settle it, as in 2000. Trump, I think, would accept whatever they decide, even if he disagrees with it.

Quote: Wizard

I think the worst case scenario is the Supreme Court will have to step in again and settle it, as in 2000. Trump, I think, would accept whatever they decide, even if he disagrees with it.

I think the worst case scenario is that Trump outright loses PA and MI and the Supreme Court gives the win in WI to Trump. Democrats are appalled at losing the election by two electoral college votes while winning the "popular vote" by millions. Widespread rioting breaks out exacerbated by the COVID and martial law must be declared.

That is my "worst case" scenario.

Quote: Pacomartin

I think the worst case scenario is that Trump outright loses PA and MI and the Supreme Court gives the win in WI to Trump. Democrats are appalled at losing the election by two electoral college votes while winning the "popular vote" by millions. Widespread rioting breaks out exacerbated by the COVID and martial law must be declared.

That is my "worst case" scenario.

How would SCOTUS "give the win in WI" to Trump?

Quote: Pacomartin

I think the worst case scenario is that Trump outright loses PA and MI and the Supreme Court gives the win in WI to Trump. Democrats are appalled at losing the election by two electoral college votes while winning the "popular vote" by millions. Widespread rioting breaks out exacerbated by the COVID and martial law must be declared.

That happened already in 2000 and 2016 and I doubt there was even a single peaceful protest over the electoral college. The type of people to understand that issue are not the type to riot.

Quote: Wizard

That happened already in 2000 and 2016 and I doubt there was even a single peaceful protest over the electoral college. The type of people to understand that issue are not the type to riot.

The riots are over far more than the EC or any one issue. They are the results of 55 years now of societal split. They are the opening rounds of Civil War II.