Are demographics favoring Democrats?

California voted for the Republican candidate 6 elections in a row from 1968 to 1988. They have voted Democrat 7 elections in a row from 1992 to 2016.

The obvious assumption is that it is not just the massive population growth in California, but the shift to minority-majority state.

California surpassed New York to become the most populous state in 1962.California current population is 36.5% white non-hispanic
1960 15,717,204
1970 19,953,134
1980 23,667,902
1990 29,760,021
2000 33,871,648
2010 37,253,956
2020 40,000,000

The large scale immigration into TX may similarly turn that state to one that votes consistently Democratic (like California0

Texas Republicans vs Democrat
Popular vote 4,685,047 3,877,868
Percentage 52.23% 43.24%

The former "blue wall" states totaled 242 electoral college votes. The addition of Texas (38 votes) would guarantee the Democrats a win with 280 votes (according to the Demographic/Political theory)?

55 CA
29 NY
20 IL
20 PA
16 MI
14 NJ
12 WA
11 MA
10 WI
10 MD
10 MN
7 CT
7 OR
4 ME
4 HI
4 RI
3 VT
3 DE
3 DC
242

Of course, Trump poked a hole in the "blue wall" by winning PA, MI, WI by less than 1%. So is the fear that the Democrats will repeatedly win after 2032 justified?

Quote: Pacomartin

California voted for the Republican candidate 6 elections in a row from 1968 to 1988. They have voted Democrat 7 elections in a row from 1992 to 2016.

The obvious assumption is that it is not just the massive population growth in California, but the shift to minority-majority state.

California also always had a liberal tradition. I will say it again. Democrats are pinning all their hopes on Latinos bloc voting like blacks. This might not be the case for many reasons. Latinos are primarily Catholic and Democrats spit on religion in many ways. Latinos have so far shown that they prefer to work their way up the economic ladder rather than feed off government. Already they are drifting off the Democrat reservation.

Quote: AZDuffman

California also always had a liberal tradition. I will say it again. Democrats are pinning all their hopes on Latinos bloc voting like blacks. This might not be the case for many reasons. Latinos are primarily Catholic and Democrats spit on religion in many ways. Latinos have so far shown that they prefer to work their way up the economic ladder rather than feed off government. Already they are drifting off the Democrat reservation.

I sure hope you're right. The stupidity of people (regardless of race) never ceases to amaze me, and that's what DEMocRATS count on.

But I do admit that it is very encouraging to see so many Black and Latino Trump supporters out there, so maybe there is hope!!

I expect Texas to vote Democrat starting 2024. By then children of illegal aliens (born US citizens) will have reached a critical mass to overtake the old Republicans. I see almost no way there will be a Republican President for the next few decades. Of course, I expected Bush to be the last Republican President and how did that prediction work out?

Here’s my prediction: neither of the two main political parties will die out within the next couple of decades. At the national level, it will continue to ebb and flow between Dems and the GOP.

No one would like for the GOP to get eradicated more than me, but there are too many dumb people in the US for that to ever happen.

Quote: ams288

Here’s my prediction: neither of the two main political parties will die out within the next couple of decades.

A one party system has it's own problems.

The violence in Mexico was so bad in the 1920s that one political party simply took over and maintained control of the Presidency. There were 11 presidents in a row from the same party starting in 1934, each serving for exactly 6 years.

It has been said that Cárdenas was the only president associated with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) who did not use the office to make himself wealthy. He retired to a modest home by Lake Pátzcuaro, Michoacán, and worked in the 30 years for the rest of his life supervising irrigation projects and promoting free medical clinics and education for the nation's poor.

It is true that recent American Presidents are wealthy (estimates in millions of 2016 dollars)
Barack Obama $40
George W. Bush $39
Bill Clinton $75
George H. W. Bush $26
Ronald Reagan $14
Jimmy Carter $8
Gerald Ford $8
Richard Nixon $17
Lyndon B. Johnson $109
JFK (the Kennedy family estate was worth nearly $2 billion. His own personal net worth at the time is calculated to be around $10 million.)
Dwight D. Eisenhower $9
Harry S. Truman <$1

Years post-presidency
Barack Obama 3 years, 223 days (living)
George W. Bush 11 years, 223 days (living)
Bill Clinton 19 years, 223 days (living)
Jimmy Carter 39 years, 223 days (living)Jimmy Carter 39 years, 223 days (living)


George H. W. Bush 25 years, 314 days Nov 30, 2018
Ronald Reagan 15 years, 137 days Jun 5, 2004
Gerald Ford 29 years, 340 days Dec 26, 2006
Richard Nixon 19 years, 256 days Apr 22, 1994
Lyndon B. Johnson 4 years, 2 days Jan 22, 1973
John F. Kennedy 0 days Nov 22, 1963
Dwight D. Eisenhower 8 years, 67 days Mar 28, 1969
Harry S. Truman 19 years, 341 days Dec 26, 1972



Lázaro Cárdenas
Manuel Ávila Camacho
Miguel Alemán Valdés
Adolfo Ruiz Cortines
Adolfo López Mateos
Gustavo DíazOrdaz
Luis Echeverría
José López Portillo y Pacheco
Miguel de la Madrid
Carlos Salinasde Gortari
Ernesto Zedillo


But the Mexican presidents (particularly Gortari) have been accused of making multiple millions to billions of dollars.