“peak demand” & “net peak demand” and the setting sun

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July 27th, 2021 at 6:41:03 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1027
Posts: 12055
The goal of electricity coordinators was always to meet “peak demand” for the day, but they have coined a new similar phrase called “net peak demand” to refer to the hours of the setting sun.
Peak demand usually occurs in late afternoon of the hottest summer months but before the sun sets.
But as the sun sets all the solar powered generation facilities go off line. If you subtract the solar power you often get a new "net demand peak" which is calculated as demand - solar power.

It all seems pretty logical.
On Aug. 14, 2020 "peak demand" occurred before 5 PM, but the day was so hot that people left their air conditioners on until sunset (7:40 PM in LA and 8:03 in San Francisco).

On Aug. 14, 2020 the "net peak demand" occurred at 6:51 p.m. — almost two hours later than peak demand — when solar and wind generation decreased by more than 5,400 megawatts in the same time period.

On Aug. 14, 2020 between 6:30 p.m. and 7 p.m., 491,600 electricity customers of California’s three big investor-owned utilities — San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric — lost power for anywhere between 15 minutes to 2 1/2 hours. The rolling blackouts in August were the first in the state since the California energy crisis in 2001, which led to the ousting of then-Gov. Gray Davis.

What is the solution? Try to renew the license for the last remaining California nuclear power plant? Not be so hasty to shut down natural gas plants?No, the solution is to raise electricity prices from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. hours when solar drops off the system.

Peak demand in California in MW for the year
47,121 Tue, Aug 18, 2020 03:57 PM
44,301 Thu, Aug 15, 2019 05:50 PM
46,427 Wed, Jul 25, 2018 05:33 PM
50,116 Fri, Sep 1, 2017 03:58 PM
46,232 Wed, Jul 27, 2016 04:51 PM
46,519 Thu, Sep 10, 2015 03:38 PM
45,089 Mon, Sep 15, 2014 04:53 PM
45,097 Fri, Jun 28, 2013 04:54 PM
46,846 Mon, Aug 13, 2012 03:53 PM
45,545 Wed, Sep 7, 2011 04:30 PM
47,350 Wed, Aug 25, 2010 04:20 PM
46,042 Thu, Sep 3, 2009 04:17 PM
46,897 Fri, Jun 20, 2008 04:21 PM
48,615 Fri, Aug 31, 2007 03:27 PM
50,270 Mon, Jul 24, 2006 02:44 PM
45,431 Wed, Jul 20, 2005 03:22 PM
45,597 Wed, Sep 8, 2004 04:00 PM
42,689 Thu, Jul 17, 2003 03:22 PM
42,441 Wed, Jul 10, 2002 03:01 PM
41,419 Tue, Aug 7, 2001 04:17 PM
43,784 Wed, Aug 16, 2000 03:17 PM
45,884 Mon, Jul 12, 1999 04:52 PM
44,659 Wed, Aug 12, 1998 02:30 PM
July 28th, 2021 at 2:58:35 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15387
Quote: Pacomartin


What is the solution? Try to renew the license for the last remaining California nuclear power plant? Not be so hasty to shut down natural gas plants?No, the solution is to raise electricity prices from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. hours when solar drops off the system.


This assumes people notice and care. Some of us mentioned from the beginning that solar only works 50% of the time at best, we got laughed at. Places like CA simply have to learn the hard way.

Unless solar power can somehow be banked it is not going to be a solution.
The President is a fink.
July 28th, 2021 at 3:02:06 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1027
Posts: 12055
Quote: AZDuffman
Some of us mentioned from the beginning that solar only works 50% of the time at best, we got laughed at. Places like CA simply have to learn the hard way.


The 40th governor of CA demanded a report about what happened. It has to be almost laughable of a report.
1) It was really really hot and people left their air conditioners on
2) It was really really hot in all the other Western states, so we couldn't buy any electricity from them (In 2019 CA net imported 27.81% of their electricity)
3) The sun went down and we lost 5400 MW of electricity from wind and solar, but people were still running air conditioners.
RESULT: half a million homes lost their power the first day, and almost as many the next day.


UNMENTIONED
1) Nearly every nuclear power station in the nation applied for and received a 20 year extension on their initial 40 year certification. The application for an extension for California's last nuclear power plant was withdrawn which means the state will lose another ~2000 MW of baseload generation which can be replaced with more wind and solar.
2) Lots of the electricity that CA imports is from nuclear, coal and natural gas. But the California house and senate has voted that all this must come from renewables by the year 2035.
3) Over 50% of California's instate electricity is generated from non-renewables (primarily natural gas and one nuclear plant) - all of this also must be replaced by renewables by 2035.
4) Only three years earlier the peak demand was 3000 MW higher than in 2020, so this was not a freak occurrence. So it will probably happen this summer.

You wonder if some basic physics classes should be mandatory for being a government official.

Quote: AZDuffman
Unless solar power can somehow be banked it is not going to be a solution.

Can you spell EV-to-grid ? If the state can mandate everyone purchase an EV, they can mandate that everyone has a civic/legal duty to help backup the grid.

In the meantime power companies are setting new rates of $0.4181 kWh 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. / Every Day because every problem can be solved by charging the custome more money. Old people on a fixed income will die in their rocking chairs because they are afraid to turn on the air conditioner. That actually isn't funny because you know it is true.

People are going to move from California to Wyoming, the nation's coal capitol.
July 28th, 2021 at 4:40:07 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15387
Quote: Pacomartin

You wonder if some basic physics classes should be mandatory for being a government official.


Same group who thinks that you can use a gun magazine only one time. All they care about is looking like they care so they get elected again.

Not limited to government, though. Word is Tesla is considering taking only Bitcoin mined with "sustainable energy." That is almost like Wal-Mart saying they will not take any bills with an "8" in the serial number.
The President is a fink.
July 28th, 2021 at 5:55:25 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1027
Posts: 12055
Quote: AZDuffman
All they care about is looking like they care so they get elected again.


The EIA states exactly how many KWh per day Californians used in 2020
KWh per day per residential account (13.85 customers)
18.2 Jan , 2020
14.4 Feb , 2020
14.5 Mar , 2020
13.4 Apr , 2020
17.5 May , 2020
19.3 Jun , 2020
23.6 Jul , 2020
24.5 Aug , 2020 massive rolling blackouts 14-15 August
24.1 Sep , 2020
21.3 Oct , 2020
14.0 Nov , 2020
19.3 Dec , 2020

Now you think that charging an EV averaging 15 KWh per day is not going to affect the grid?

The solution is to raise electricity rates to 42 cents per KWh from 4 to 9 PM in the summer. People will just turn off AC and swelter at that rate.

Personal Opinion
California in 2019 electricity was
48.63% renewables plus conventional hydroelectric
42.97% natural gas
8.06% nuclear

That is probably the cleanest electricity ever produced by any state since 1900. Why not just give it a break right here while you fill the state with EVs.

But the CA government wants 100% renewables by 2040 (including all electricity imported from other states) while at the same time switching 15 million gasoline cars to electric.
July 28th, 2021 at 8:05:42 PM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 11
Posts: 2848
Quote: Pacomartin


In the meantime power companies are setting new rates of $0.4181 kWh 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. / Every Day because every problem can be solved by charging the custome more money. Old people on a fixed income will die in their rocking chairs because they are afraid to turn on the air conditioner. That actually isn't funny because you know it is true.

People are going to move from California to Wyoming, the nation's coal capitol.


During the extreme heat that British Columbia had for almost a week in early July there were over 800 sudden deaths attributed to the heat. Mostly seniors living in small places with no AC. Since the pandemic began BC has had just over 1700 deaths from Covid. I can't get my head around those 2 stats and how different they have been reported and handled.
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
July 28th, 2021 at 10:53:04 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 153
Posts: 12680
Quote: Pacomartin



Now you think that charging an EV averaging 15 KWh per day is not going to affect the grid?

.


You may not need to depend entirely on the grid. You don't even need to use it in some low use days, I suppose.

Eco flow battery system with it's 4 solar panels claims it can charge an electric vehicle from 3 up to 5 miles per day.

$2100 for the complete system with panels.

Found this in regards to that.
https://youtu.be/UnTJScmSLYs
In the beginning, God created a video game we call The Universe
July 29th, 2021 at 2:43:19 AM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 133
Posts: 15387
Quote: rxwine
You may not need to depend entirely on the grid. You don't even need to use it in some low use days, I suppose.

Eco flow battery system with it's 4 solar panels claims it can charge an electric vehicle from 3 up to 5 miles per day.

$2100 for the complete system with panels.

Found this in regards to that.
https://youtu.be/UnTJScmSLYs


$2100 to get an average of 4 miles per day? Are they on drugs?
The President is a fink.
July 29th, 2021 at 4:37:44 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1027
Posts: 12055
Quote: AZDuffman
$2100 to get an average of 4 miles per day? Are they on drugs?


Yes and No.

In August of 2020 the California system crashed when peak load was ~59% of nameplate capacity for in state power plants. Normally a large amount of electricity is imported from other states, but the heat wave affected multiple western states.

If you have enough money you can use your EV battery, but it would be nice to know you can guarantee yourself some minimal mobility in a crisis.

Personally I think it is a better deal than the $6500 Tesla Powerwall and Elon sold over 100,000 of them.

That device ECO flow RIVER Pro $649
Capacity:720Wh Life Cycles: 800+ Cycle
Output: 600W (Surge 1200W)
AC Input: 660W Max

is actually fairly useful as you can carry it in the house to run your refrigerator in event of a power outage. The gasoline generators obviously must be outside and can be a problem in snow and rain. If power outages are fairly short in duration it would do the trick.
July 29th, 2021 at 9:06:19 AM permalink
kenarman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 11
Posts: 2848
Quote: Pacomartin
Yes and No.

In August of 2020 the California system crashed when peak load was ~59% of nameplate capacity for in state power plants. Normally a large amount of electricity is imported from other states, but the heat wave affected multiple western states.

If you have enough money you can use your EV battery, but it would be nice to know you can guarantee yourself some minimal mobility in a crisis.

Personally I think it is a better deal than the $6500 Tesla Powerwall and Elon sold over 100,000 of them.

That device ECO flow RIVER Pro $649
Capacity:720Wh Life Cycles: 800+ Cycle
Output: 600W (Surge 1200W)
AC Input: 660W Max

is actually fairly useful as you can carry it in the house to run your refrigerator in event of a power outage. The gasoline generators obviously must be outside and can be a problem in snow and rain. If power outages are fairly short in duration it would do the trick.


Many full size double door fridges wouldn't be able to run on that. They likely need 2000W of surge capacity to get them started.
"but if you make yourselves sheep, the wolves will eat you." Benjamin Franklin
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