Where's Paco

Quote: Pacomartin

I did not have access to a computer from 1 Nov until yesterday. I had a phone, but I can't type on it very well.

I am glad you are back. You post the most intelligent and civil posts on the board.

Quote: Evenbob

Before covid about 8000 people a day died in the United States from all causes. Last year during the first year of covid 9100 people died a day. That is about 365000 more people per year then pre covid. Yet in 2020 777000 people reportedly died from covid. The figures do not add up, it looks like covid is being over reported by 100%. Unless all of a sudden by some miracle deaths bye all causes went down in 2020. Which is not possible.

Quote: Evenbob

The takeaway from this is the people who reportedly died of covid in 2020 we're either dying of something else first or would have died anyway. Kind of takes the sting out of the numbers, but this is all about politics now anyway it has nothing to do with how bad the disease is. For political reasons the worse it sounds the better. That way they can jam mandates down our throats and if they do that it ain't going to stop there.

The number of reported US COVID deaths in 2020 was in the 350,000-400.000 range. That actually comes pretty close to adding up to your excess death figures.

(I don't think the range is that wide, but I did see numbers that were different in several articles)

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211122/us-covid-deaths-2021-surpass-2020-total

Quote: RonC

The number of reported US COVID deaths in 2020 was in the 350,000-400.000 range. That actually comes pretty close to adding up to your excess death figures.

No it doesn't. If 8000 people a day were dying before covid, and 9100 a day are dying with covid around, that accounts for only half the reported covid deaths. What it means is half the people who died from covid-19 would have died anyway from whatever sickness they had.

Quote: Evenbob

No it doesn't. If 8000 people a day were dying before covid, and 9100 a day are dying with covid around, that accounts for only half the reported covid deaths. What it means is half the people who died from covid-19 would have died anyway from whatever sickness they had.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

The papers I have seen say just the opposite for the US. More people are dying than in the US than the official COVID statistics,

Worldwide what you are saying may easily be true. Undocumented mortality is fairly common in poorer countries.

Quote: Pacomartin

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

The papers I have seen say just the opposite for the US. More people are dying than in the US than the official COVID statistics,

Worldwide what you are saying may easily be true. Undocumented mortality is fairly common in poorer countries.

What I read said in 2019 and a few years previous about eight thousand people a day died in the United States. Last year in 2020 9100 a day died. If the reported covid deaths are accurate over 10,000 people should have died a day and they did not. The covid number of deaths they are reporting do not match the total deaths per day.

Quote: Evenbob

What I read said in 2019 and a few years previous about eight thousand people a day died in the United States. Last year in 2020 9100 a day died. If the reported covid deaths are accurate over 10,000 people should have died a day and they did not. The covid number of deaths they are reporting do not match the total deaths per day.

Those numbers for "total deaths" are fairly close to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) mortality statistics.

2020 3,358,814 total deaths all causes = 9,202 per day
2019 2,854,838 total deaths all causes = 7,821 per day
2018 2,839,205 total deaths all causes = 7,779 per day

The total number of deaths increases every year because the population is getting older,

That's an increase of 503,976 or 1,381 per day from 2019 to 2020 in the US.

I do not know where you get "10,000 people should have died a day." The worldwide estimates for 2020 were about 5,000 people per day.

The annual numbers for 2020 for estimated COVID deaths in the US that I have seen are between 351,754 and 377,883 which is much closer to 1,000 per day than 10,000.

Quote: Pacomartin

Those numbers for "total deaths" are fairly close to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) mortality statistics.

2020 3,358,814 total deaths all causes = 9,202 per day
2019 2,854,838 total deaths all causes = 7,821 per day
2018 2,839,205 total deaths all causes = 7,779 per day

The total number of deaths increases every year because the population is getting older,

That's an increase of 503,976 or 1,381 per day from 2019 to 2020 in the US.

I do not know where you get "10,000 people should have died a day." The worldwide estimates for 2020 were about 5,000 people per day.

The annual numbers for 2020 for estimated COVID deaths in the US that I have seen are between 351,754 and 377,883 which is much closer to 1,000 per day than 10,000.

Worldometers shows 808,000 thousand total deaths from Covid in the US since the beginning of the pandemic. I suspect that EB has taken the total deaths for the deaths in 2020.

Quote: kenarman

Worldometers shows 808,000 thousand total deaths from Covid in the US since the beginning of the pandemic. I suspect that EB has taken the total deaths for the deaths in 2020.

Still isn't nearly enough as 10,000 X 365 = 3.65 million which is an overestimate for all causes of deaths in the United States for 2020

The real number is that deaths in the US increased by half a million from 2019 to 2020, and all the estimates of COVID deaths are under ~375,000. Hence the data seems to imply that COVID deaths were undercounted, or that COVID created a situation that resulted in poor health care for other diseases resulting in a higher than normal death rate.

Total Deaths (all causes) in the US + increase over the previous year.
2000 2,403,351
2001 2,416,425 +13,074
2002 2,443,387 +26,962
2003 2,448,288 +4,901
2004 2,397,615 -50,673
2005 2,448,017 +50,402
2006 2,426,264 -21,753
2007 2,423,712 -2,552
2008 2,471,984 +48,272
2009 2,437,163 -34,821
2010 2,468,435 +31,272
2011 2,515,458 +47,023
2012 2,543,279 +27,821
2013 2,596,993 +53,714
2014 2,626,418 +29,425
2015 2,712,630 +86,212
2016 2,744,248 +31,618
2017 2,813,503 +69,255
2018 2,839,205 +25,702
2019 2,854,838 +15,633
2020 3,358,814 +503,976

Other studies have suggested that the worldwide verified death count from COVID (currently just over 5 million) may be radically wrong with 11 million suggested as a more accurate estimate.

World population was expected to increse by rough 80 million from 2020 to 2021 before COVID.

Welcome back Paco! I missed you.

Quote: Pacomartin

Still isn't nearly enough as 10,000 X 365 = 3.65 million which is an overestimate for all causes of deaths in the United States for 2020

The real number is that deaths in the US increased by half a million from 2019 to 2020, and all the estimates of COVID deaths are under ~375,000. Hence the data seems to imply that COVID deaths were undercounted, or that COVID created a situation that resulted in poor health care for other diseases resulting in a higher than normal death rate.

Total Deaths (all causes) in the US + increase over the previous year.
2000 2,403,351
2001 2,416,425 +13,074
2002 2,443,387 +26,962
2003 2,448,288 +4,901
2004 2,397,615 -50,673
2005 2,448,017 +50,402
2006 2,426,264 -21,753
2007 2,423,712 -2,552
2008 2,471,984 +48,272
2009 2,437,163 -34,821
2010 2,468,435 +31,272
2011 2,515,458 +47,023
2012 2,543,279 +27,821
2013 2,596,993 +53,714
2014 2,626,418 +29,425
2015 2,712,630 +86,212
2016 2,744,248 +31,618
2017 2,813,503 +69,255
2018 2,839,205 +25,702
2019 2,854,838 +15,633
2020 3,358,814 +503,976

Other studies have suggested that the worldwide verified death count from COVID (currently just over 5 million) may be radically wrong with 11 million suggested as a more accurate estimate.

World population was expected to increse by rough 80 million from 2020 to 2021 before COVID.

This article seems to address similar information.