Future of Cable TV

I tried Amazon twice, 30 days free,
on two different accounts. Not
worth paying as far as I'm concerned.

Nflix has a better selection and a much
better picture than Amazon. I ran out
of stuff I was interested in, and I never
do that on Nflix.

Interestingly the CW network is coming up on 10 years this fall. They renewed every single scripted show they had, even the ones with bad ratings. Curiously, the shows with bad ratings, are two of the most honored shows in their lineup.

CBS and Warner Brother (the CW in the network title) own all of their shows. Rumor is they are going to develop a streaming service this fall ($2-$4 per month). Their contracts with Hulu, Netflix, and the owner of their most important TV stations all come due this fall.

Depending on how contract negotiations go with the station affiliate, we may actually see the first network to migrate from broadcast to a pay internet network. It probably won't happen all at once.

On the other hand, if it drops it's TV station affiliations, it would be free to expand into other countries without any regulatory hassle.

I think their decision to renew every show, is related to the need to have a lot of shows that can be binge watched. Some of their show were carried over from the previous networks, UPN and The WB. One show, Supernatural, was a carry over that survived the full decade of The CW.


Dramas
7th Heaven (2006–2007) (The WB: 1996–2006)
Gilmore Girls (2006–2007) (The WB: 2000–2006)
Smallville (2006–2011) (The WB: 2001–2006)
One Tree Hill (2006–2012) (The WB: 2003–2006)
Veronica Mars (2006–2007) (UPN: 2004–2006)
Runaway (2006)
Hidden Palms (2007)
Gossip Girl (2007–2012)
Life Is Wild (2007–2008)
Reaper (2007–2009)
90210 (2008–2013)
Privileged (2008–2009)
Easy Money (2008–2009)
Valentine (2008–2009)
The Beautiful Life: TBL (2009)
Melrose Place (2009–2010)
Life Unexpected (2010–2011)
Hellcats (2010–2011)
Nikita (2010–2013)
Ringer (2011–2012)
The Secret Circle (2011–2012)
Hart of Dixie (2011–2015)
The L.A. Complex (2012)
Emily Owens, M.D. (2012–2013)
The Carrie Diaries (2013–2014)
Cult (2013)
The Tomorrow People (2013–2014)
Star-Crossed (2014)
The Messengers (2015)
------
Supernatural (2006) (The WB: 2005–06)
The Vampire Diaries (2009)
Arrow (2012)
Beauty & the Beast (2012)
The Originals (2013)
Reign (2013)
The 100 (2014)
The Flash (2014)
iZombie (2015)
Legends of Tomorrow (2016)


Comedies
Girlfriends (2006–2008) (UPN: 2000–2006)
Reba (2006–2007) (The WB: 2001–2006)
All of Us (2006–2007) (UPN: 2003–2006)
Everybody Hates Chris (2006–2009) (UPN: 2005–2006)
The Game (2006–2009)
Aliens in America (2007–2008)
18 to Life (2010)
Backpackers (2014)
Seed (2014)
----
Jane the Virgin (2014)
Significant Mother (2015)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (2015)

Quote: Pacomartin

My brother said he had a friend who worked for ESPN, and they have been aware for a decade that their business model would collapse someday. But as cable goes down in numbers they just keep raising their price.

That has to be a tough position to be in. Basically as CEO you are just trying to delay failure. Like the latest CEO of Yahoo! That ship will sink but she will keep trying to save it. As to ESPN, you can ride a cash cow for years even decades of decline and nice profits. Their problem will be that subscriptions fall but rights fees will rise. They may end up as a master franchise of sorts, re-selling local rights. Next 5 years probably assured, after that it will get dicey.

It will come down to demand elasticity. Guys that keep cable tend to keep it for sports. This does not include their SO who may have other reasons. Ask a guy to cord cut and he says, "well, but sports!" Guys who care less about sports cut. Cable by various methods keeps sports locked up. Let some local teams stream and it may crack the dam.

On that list of CW shows, never saw
a single one, only know a couple
of the names. Amazing.

Quote: AZDuffman

That has to be a tough position to be in. Basically as CEO you are just trying to delay failure.

From a programming point of view, In some ways I regarded Sling TV as a retrograde. It provided 20 channels of IPTV for $20 (one outlet). The 20 channels was the minimum specified by the FCC in 1976 rules. Now SlingTV offers the choice of up to 3 outlets for $25 and now it includes BBCAmerica.

I always thought BBCAmerica was getting shafted by cable Television. It doesn't cost the cable companies anymore than any other channel, but because it is not part of an American consortium, it gets put up with a higher tier of channels that typically cost $10 to $15 additional. BBCAmerica is very popular, and it provides a strong inducement to go to the higher tier.

https://www.sling.com/

Now Sling TV is offering BBCAmerica for the $20 package.

Possibly a small thing, but possibly a harbinger of a complete breakdown of the current CATV system.

Quote: CATV history

CATV (community access television) began in the 1940's as a way for mountain towns to get a shared broadcast signal that was impossible to receive without a giant antenna. Before coaxial cable was used, the signal would regularly go out when it rained.

In 1976, the FCC used its rule-making power to require that new systems now had to have 20 channels. Since WTCG (later WTBS) was the first superstation, the channels were made up with rebroadcast of local network television, and public access.

HBO November 8, 1972
WTBS December 17, 1976
CBN April 29, 1977
USA September 22, 1977
WGN America October 1978
CSPAN March 19, 1979
NICKELODEON April 1, 1979
ESPN September 7, 1979
CNN 1 June 1980
MTV August 1, 1981
CINEMAX August 1, 1980
EWTN August 15, 1981
TWC (The Weather Channel) May 2, 1982
HLN (Headline New) January 1, 1982
AMC or "American Movie Classics" October 1, 1984

CNN & MTV made cable television very popular even if you had good reception with a home antenna. The Iran hostage crisis where 52 American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days started on November 4, 1979.

ESPN's first show was was broadcast to only 1.4 million cable subscribers. In 1984 the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) purchased 100% of ESPN from the Rasmussens and Getty Oil. ESPN's breakthrough moment occurred in 1987, when it secured a contract with the NFL to broadcast eight games during that year's regular season – all of which aired on Sunday nights.

By the late 1980's cable TV was in 50% of American homes.

TiVo Digital Video recorder sold its first model, March 31, 1999 which could record 14 hours of standard definition TV. The second series came out in about 2002. In April 2006 ABC announced that you no longer needed TiVo as they would air their shows for free the next day on the web (but you couldn't skip commercials). TiVo series 3 came on the market September 12, 2006 and had support for high-definition broadcasts.

February 2007, Netflix introduced video on demand via the Internet.

I had no idea Nickelodeon was on air before ESPN.

Quote: AZDuffman

I had no idea Nickelodeon was on air before ESPN.

It actually had a predecessor called Pinwheel which was launched on December 1, 1977

QUBE was a Warner Brothers test product first launched in Columbus, Ohio. The initial QUBE service debuted with 30 channels (a large number of cable channels at the time), including 10 pay-per-view movie channels (a then-new feature for cable TV); 10 broadcast channels (from Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Cleveland); and 10 community channels. These community channels included one dedicated to a single show: Pinwheel, which would go on to air on Nickelodeon from the latter's launch in 1979.

Qube console (Adult Films were hard R, not soft X)


Qube article that mentions Pinwheel
http://www.qube-tv.com/qube-tv/GUIDE.pdf

Quote: Pacomartin

It actually had a predecessor called Pinwheel which was launched on December 1, 1977

QUBE was a Warner Brothers test product first launched in Columbus, Ohio. The initial QUBE service debuted with 30 channels (a large number of cable channels at the time), including 10 pay-per-view movie channels (a then-new feature for cable TV); 10 broadcast channels (from Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Cleveland); and 10 community channels. These community channels included one dedicated to a single show: Pinwheel, which would go on to air on Nickelodeon from the latter's launch in 1979.

My grandparents had QUBE in Pittsburgh in early 1980s, a later and fancier version than the pic here. Lots of mostly junk channels. Kind of billboard ads, a channel that just showed you how to use it, other stuff. It didn't last, too far ahead of its time I think.

I keep thinking someone will come up with an aggregation service for online TV/Movie content. I think it's inevitable.

Consider, each service has its points, and there is some overlap between them, but it would cost too much to subscribe to all, and that's leaving aside regular and occasional services like news and sports.

I thought of a possible scenario. Suppose Amazon decides it would rather get a little from people who don't currently subscribe to their service rather than nothing. So they make some shows available to a third party distributor who sells them to you for a modest monthly fee. Maybe this Amazon Sub-Prime package also carries ads (for added revenue). Netflix sees this, does the math, and follows suit.

Of course, someone already paying for Amazon Prime won't be too happy, or might consider the aggregator a better deal. So many people will switch.

I'm not saying this will happen, but the demand for such a service will be there. It will be almost like cable TV is now, except everything will be on demand, t be watched at any time and, more important, anywhere there is decent WiFi.

I just spent some time looking at the list of channels available on Sling TV. It's impressive, and you have the option of adding groups of channels for an additional $5/month or even HBO for $15.

Why haven't more people switched to Sling?

It's such an incredible value compared to cable or satellite. My theory is that people just don't know about it, they don't advertise it much.