Trump vs Hillary 2016

Quote: Nareed

Me, I'm undecided. Which would be the biggest, most pathetic Trump tantrum? If he lost the election, or if he were dumped by the GOP?

These percentage points are the lead of the winning candidate over the second string candidate in nationwide popular vote.
Nationwide popular vote winning/losing - Name Losing Candidate & Electoral college votes
-1% 2000 Gore = 266 EV
+5% 2004 Kerry= 251 EV
+8% 2012 Romney = 206 EV
16% 2008 McCain = 173 EV
15% 1992 Bush = 168 EV
21% 1996 Dole = 159 EV

We all know that nobody knew who won in 2000 after the election. I have to believe that John Kerry went into election night thinking he might be the POTUS. He needed a little more than 1% more in Ohio, and he would have been POTUS.

Romney supposedly went into election night thinking that he was going to win.

Right now Trump is leading in polls by 5% or more in states that add up 155 electoral college votes. So he has the potential to do worse than Bob Dole in 1996. A lot of people laughed and said they had nominated the wrong Dole since they felt his wife would have done better. But Bob Dole was age 73, and he had a graceful retirement for the last 20 years. On January 17, 1997, ex-Senator Dole was presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Bill Clinton.


I am talking about Trump speaking in his first debate with Hillary (Monday, September 26, 2016) and saying something like "He's a war hero because he was captured; I like people that weren't captured, OK?". Right now I am sure that DJT imagines himself crushing Hillary in the debate. He may even call her names to her face, and think it is a good strategy.

But what if he truly alienates women in the debate, and comes out of the first debate with 100 EVs. What would it take?

They would be about 60 days before the election. Would they dump him?

Quote: Pacomartin

We all know that nobody knew who won in 2000 after the election.

Bush won.

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But what if he truly alienates women in the debate,

More than he already has?

Quote:

They would be about 60 days before the election. Would they dump him?

I don't think so, much as every journalist in the world might wish otherwise. But they might cut him off. Give hm no further RNC funds or support, and instead use those resources for House and Senate races.

Again, I'm ambivalent. If they cut him off, Trump will prove how inept he is by alienating such Republicans as he hadn't alienated thus far. But if they don't, then they risk an electoral loss of epic proportions, including losing the Senate and barely keeping the House. That may be the thrashing the GOP needs to either take serious steps towards reform, or to fall apart.

Quote: Nareed

But they might cut him off. Give hm no further RNC funds or support, and instead use those resources for House and Senate races.

You are discounting the scenario where Trump himself would rather be removed by the GOP than lose to Hillary.

Quote: Pacomartin

You are discounting the scenario where Trump himself would rather be removed by the GOP than lose to Hillary.

That's even longer odds.

1) I think he thinks he's going to win. Impossible, right? But he's the type to think like that.

2) He still draws crowds at campaign events, and that feeds his low, low, low, low, low, low self-esteem, which, BTW it's really low.

Sometime's it just seems as if you can get elected based on the mildest of things (like rainy weather). The three elections of 1884-1892 seemed to be symbolic of the luck of winning. The same candidates for Republicans and Democrats ran in 1888 and 1892. In 1892 neither of them campaigned

Chester A. Arthur was the incumbent by virtue of assassination. His health was poor and did not run in 1884

1884 Election Results
Grover Cleveland Democratic 219: 4,874,986
James G. Blaine Republican 182: 4,851,981


1888 Election Results
Benjamin Harrison Republican 233: 5,439,853
Grover Cleveland (I) Democratic 168: 5,540,309 (won popular vote, lost election)


1892 Election Results
Grover Cleveland Democratic 277: 5,556,918 (won popular vote, lost election)
Benjamin Harrison (I) Republican 145: 5,176,108
James B. Weaver People's 22: 1,027,329

Caroline Scott Harrison, the wife of the incumbent died October 25, 1892 just two weeks before the November 8, 1892 election. Harrison refused to campaign as his wife was dying. Cleveland would not campaign either as he felt it would make him look bad to campaign against a man whose wife was dying.

Die-hard Trumpkins have begun, at last, to claim the polls are skewed.

Imagine my lack of surprise.

Prediction, come Nov. 9th, many a Trumpkin will whine: "But no one I know voted for her!"

Quote: Nareed

Die-hard Trumpkins have begun, at last, to claim the polls are skewed.

Are you referring to EvenBob? ;)

Apparently they will never learn that a larger rally attendance does not equal a larger popular vote.

Mitt Romney got 30,000 people at a rally in Pennsylvania in 2012. Righties took this as an indication he would win.

And then on election night.... Well, we all remember the FOX News meltdown of 2012....

Quote: ams288

And then on election night.... Well, we all remember the FOX News meltdown of 2012....

But the polls were skewed!!

The thinking then was that many people would not admit to a pollster they would not vote for Obama, because they were afraid to be labeled as "racist." The tune now is that they wont' admit to a pollster they would vote for Trump, because they are afraid to be labeled as supporting an embarrassing candidate.

After the election is over, I'll be very interested to know how many people voted for Trump out of party loyalty alone.

Repubs think they have 3 months to fix Trump the campaign
The reality
6 weeks
Voting starts Sep 23 Minnesota and South Dakota
35 states and DC allow early voting
Battleground AZ and OH start voting Oct 12

Early voting has really grown
32% voted early 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/politics/early-voting-limits-donald-trumps-time-to-turn-campaign-around.html?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange&_r=0

Quote: terapined

Repubs think they have 3 months to fix Trump the campaign

Repbubs have no reason to worry.

Haven't you seen Trump's crowds at his rallies?!?

Bigger crowds = winner of the election. Every time.

/sarcasm