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Presidential Election 2020 Biden vs. Trump
Poll
 | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| | 9 votes (50%) | ||
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| | 3 votes (16.66%) |
18 members have voted
| August 20th, 2020 at 6:04:50 AM permalink | |
| Shrek Member since: Aug 13, 2019 Threads: 10 Posts: 1855 |
He might not get that reference. Seinfeld hit the airwaves 31 years ago, and I don't think he was born yet. (I could be wrong though) |
| August 20th, 2020 at 6:09:30 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 |
The employer is supposed to fill out the part that describes the ID and verify it is the person. IOW, if a white person shows an ID with a black person then it is clearly not their ID. As to "claiming taxes" FICA has to be taken from their pay, along with other taxes. If the job is legit, an ID is needed.
Was at one of those places earlier this year, if not MedExpress then one of their competitors. When I have been there they asked for ID.
You need to learn what to imagine. Ever heard of "pill seeking?" Whether for personal use or for resale on the street, you need to get the script from the doc. If you have lots of Oxy scripts on your name they will be harder and harder to get. OTOH, if you go to a fresh doc with a stolen identity then it is easier. That is the reason. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| August 20th, 2020 at 6:18:54 PM permalink | |
| Mission146 Administrator Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 23 Posts: 4147 |
1. Job. If you say so. For better or worse, I mainly just took people at face value at the hotels and never had an issue. No Government worker ever came in and said, “Where are your copies of two forms of ID for all of these people?” Besides, all I said initially was you don’t necessarily need a state-issued ID, which is what I presume would be used for voting. 2. Asking for it and requiring it are two different things. 3. That’s true, but the MedExpress people said you could not get narcotics without an ID. Have an ear infection and need some prescription antibacterial ear drops? No ID absolutely needed at any level. "War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman |
| August 20th, 2020 at 7:04:30 PM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 241 Posts: 6108 | Odds as of 8-20-20 at 5Dimes: Biden: -130 Trump: +110 It's definitely getting tighter. Glad I got up to +160 on Trump while it was available. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |
| August 21st, 2020 at 3:42:55 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 |
Looks like you might be able to middle it! Will you middle and get a guaranteed win or obey the commandment? War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| August 21st, 2020 at 4:01:56 AM permalink | |
| Mission146 Administrator Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 23 Posts: 4147 |
In the betting sense, I’d personally consider that an arbitrage, as opposed to hedging. "War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman |
| August 21st, 2020 at 4:17:17 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 |
I am cool with it and would probably call it "risk management" if I had to call it anything. My training is more in finance where you want to lock in gains when you can. I am doing well on Draft Kings stock this way for example. Just curious how Wiz will play it and what he considers the "right" play if he is willing to share. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| August 21st, 2020 at 4:38:27 AM permalink | |
| Mission146 Administrator Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 23 Posts: 4147 |
I'm definitely in your camp. Any non-zero profit with zero risk is a good play, in my book. How would you do it if you had the binary options, as on PredictIt? Would you sell off for the guaranteed profit, at this point? "War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen..let us give them all they want." William T. Sherman |
| August 21st, 2020 at 4:48:50 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 137 Posts: 21195 |
Not familiar with that one. I have been running covered calls. Early last week I rolled my short call by writing another for a credit of $1.55 per share thru October 2. I have done this three times now including the covered call written at purchase. I am getting about $0.20 per share per week in what is known as Theta Decay. That is amazingly huge. How huge? Like getting -115 when you bet against the Pirates. Anyhow, my upside is locked to the value of the call. But I scalp (yes, that is the term) a little profit each month. I lose out if the stock rockets, which I have. But then it stalled and I am still getting the Theta month after month. The problem is when the stock just sits there, you cannot make much Theta. I have two other plays that should be huge in 12-36 months but for now not worth writing an call on. One I wrote a couple times for just $0.15 per share and made it all back when the call expired worthless. Covered calls are a nice little extra if you know how to run them. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength |
| August 21st, 2020 at 7:54:11 AM permalink | |
| Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 23, 2012 Threads: 241 Posts: 6108 |
I doubt I will. My policy is to not hedge unless the hedge bet is zero or positive EV. Another exception is if there are life changing amounts of money involved, which there never are for me. In this case, it's not easy to quantify the probability of Trump winning. I think the betting market is looking the election too analytically. At the end of the day, people vote with their heart and their gut, not their brains. That will cut Trump's way. Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber |