Random Thought of the Day

Quote: terapined

Your hate for Biden is silly when the war in Ukraine are causing all the economic problems.

Ok thanks. I wasn’t aware that the war in Ukraine was causing ALL of our economic problems. Neither is another human being on the planet.
Giving away untold billions in handouts to the unwilling to work has nothing to do with it. Trillions upon trillions in bills that we don’t have the money to pay for has nothing to do with it.
Let’s make it worse. Eliminating student debt, which means that is money that won’t be coming into the federal coffers, yeah that will help the economy.
The war in Ukraine might be a small factor in our economic woes. It’s 90%+ Democrat policies. You can be the ostrich with his head in the ground.

And stop it! I don’t hate Biden. You can say I hate what his and the lefts policies are doing to the country. I think Biden means welll. And has a good heart. He’s just unable to use those two attributes positively.

Economic problems?
VFINX, Vanguard's landmark S&P 500 index fund which is a strong indicator of the direction of the entire market is up 6.43% in just a little over the first 2 months of 2023.
The general condition and prospects for the economy is what drives the big market players in making their decisions as to whether to buy or sell.
And they are definitely buying.
Of course, this can change on a dime.
Could they be wrong about the economy? Of course they could be.
And of course there are problems.
There are always problems.
The big question is the condition of the economy a net negative or a net positive.
My point is that the fact that the market has recently moved aggressively upward is not meaningless.
It's easy to point out the problems of the economy.
There are many positives about the current state of the economy.
The news media always focuses greater attention on the negatives. Fear is what causes people to pay attention and drives advertising revenue.


1982 thru 1997 are often referred to as boom years for the U.S. economy.
In 1997 the national debt was $5.369 trillion dollars.

Quote: PotPie

Economic problems?
VFINX, Vanguard's landmark S&P 500 index fund which is a strong indicator of the direction of the entire market is up 6.43% in just a little over the first 2 months of 2023.
The general condition and prospects for the economy is what drives the big market players in making their decisions as to whether to buy or sell.
And they are definitely buying.
Of course, this can change on a dime.
Could they be wrong about the economy? Of course they could be.
And of course there are problems.
There are always problems.
The big question is the condition of the economy a net negative or a net positive.
My point is that the fact that the market has recently moved aggressively upward is not meaningless.
It's easy to point out the problems of the economy.
There are many positives about the current state of the economy.
The news media always focuses greater attention on the negatives. Fear is what causes people to pay attention and drives advertising revenue.


1982 thru 1997 are often referred to as boom years for the U.S. economy.
In 1997 the national debt was $5.369 trillion dollars.

Over the last year the market is down and inflation is up 7%. To me that is a big net negative. I don't know about others, but my investments were down about 15% this past year.

Quote: DRich

Over the last year the market is down and inflation is up 7%. To me that is a big net negative. I don't know about others, but my investments were down about 15% this past year.

2022, yes it was down.
But not 2023.
And inflation is lessening.
So far this year it's a completely different story.

Recessions are all man-made, and they have been occurring an average of once every six years, since 1948.

According to The Conference Board

'The trajectory of the US LEI continues to signal a recession over the next 12 months'

One reason why we got the dead cat bounce is because China recently injected over $1T (dollar equivalent).

It was supposedly based upon easing Covid restrictions.

However, I've been reading reports about them having trillions and trillion off their books.

I'd imagine they're in trouble but disguised by the money injections.

It'll show up in higher prices.

Tech hates higher rates.

Quote: Tanko

Recessions are all man-made, and they have been occurring an average of once every six years, since 1948.

According to The Conference Board

'The trajectory of the US LEI continues to signal a recession over the next 12 months'

That report was quite interesting but it is ambiguous.

From the report:

"indicators relating to the labor market - including employment and personal income remain robust so far

the CEI's component indicators - payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production - are included among the data to determine recessions in the U.S.

Three of these four components improved in January, with only industrial production being virtually unchanged."

They don't base their predictions on current numbers. They look at trends.

Personal income may be up, but Real Income is down, and consumer credit is now at an all time high of $1 trillion.

Poverty rate increasing. Real Median Household Income falling steadily since 2019. Real Hourly Earnings down 1.8% year over year. Durable Good Orders are down 4.5%. The US International Trade Deficit reached -$90 billion in Feb. It was -$67 billion in December. Manufacturing indexes steadily contracting for the past twelve months. US Productivity up only 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs up sharply higher 3.2% in fourth quarter.

The worst thing about losing your manufacturing base, as we are, is that when a recession does occur, it is harder to recover from it. Manufacturing is now only 12% of the US GDP. Less than half of what it was fifty years ago.

Not claiming I can forecast the the future of the economy.
In any event, although I respect the work of the Conference Board, I don't believe they can accurately predict a recession.
I believe the U.S. and the world economy is too complex for a prediction such as that to be very meaningful.

Also, I haven't followed your postings but terrapined stated that you are a righty.
If he is correct and that is true, it can become a political thing for righties to be negative about the economy as they attempt to dislodge a Democratic Prez.

I vote Democratic but I'm not making the case that the economic picture is rosy.

Just not buying all of the negativity.

Quote: PotPie

Not claiming I can forecast the the future of the economy.
In any event, although I respect the work of the Conference Board, I don't believe they can accurately predict a recession.
I believe the U.S. and the world economy is too complex for a prediction such as that to be very meaningful.

The US economy is inconsequential
Everything is intertwined on this planet now
Its a worldwide economy and its extremely complicated and unpredictable
Biden really has very little empact on this massive intertwined planetary economy