Should Ben Carson drop out now

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February 2nd, 2016 at 4:58:18 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
February 6, 2016 – Goffstown, New Hampshire
The eighth debate will be held in New Hampshire, the first state to hold primaries, and will air on ABC News and be sponsored by Independent Journal Review. It is scheduled to be held in the St Anselm's College Institute of Politics. The eighth debate will not feature an undercard event. To participate in the debate, a candidate must either place among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or place among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News. Only polls conducted no earlier than January 1 and released by February 4 will be included in the averages.

Unless Carson suddenly surges past Christie in the polls in the next three days, it looks like he won't be invited to the debate next Tuesday
Cruz, Trump, Rubio top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus
Cruz, Trump, Rubio + Kasich, Bush, Christie probable top 6 in polls in New Hampshire

I think it might be time to move on. He should be pretty valuable right now.

I think these guys should probably quit as well, but Rand Paul will probably keep trying to get TV time.
Paul
Fiorina
Santorum
February 2nd, 2016 at 6:26:47 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
I'd be willing to chip in with $5 to send him to Giza to look for evidence that grain was ever stored in the pyramids. <roll-eyes>
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:09:19 PM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 6
Posts: 1600
Paco,

You probably know this, but Paul suspended his campaign this afternoon.
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:25:58 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 135
Posts: 18212
Quote: beachbumbabs
Paco,

You probably know this, but Paul suspended his campaign this afternoon.
d

Didn't Santorum also?
The President is a fink.
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:32:55 PM permalink
beachbumbabs
Member since: Sep 3, 2013
Threads: 6
Posts: 1600
Quote: AZDuffman
d

Didn't Santorum also?


I think you're right. I just saw it on the scroller under the news. Good catch!
Never doubt a small group of concerned citizens can change the world; it's the only thing ever has
February 4th, 2016 at 6:44:14 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
Quote: beachbumbabs
I think you're right. I just saw it on the scroller under the news. Good catch!


Officially, the choices for the next debate are not made until all possible qualifying polls are released as 5 p.m. ET tomorrow.

With Huckabee, Santorum, and Paul out of the race, that leaves only Carson and Fiorina as potential exclusions from the debate. Carly wrote a letter yesterday to the RNC complaining that she will be the only one left out of the debate.

I didn't realize that there was a third way to qualify. It looks like Carson will probably qualify under the third criteria. The first and second criteria are redundant. Carson is probably in top 6 nationwide, but not in NH.

Quote: abc criteria to make debate
First, a candidate can place among the top three candidates, ranked according to the popular vote, in the Iowa GOP caucuses on Monday.

Second, a candidate can qualify by placing among the top six candidates in an average of New Hampshire GOP presidential polls that are recognized by ABC News. Those polls must have been conducted no earlier than Jan. 1 and must be released before 5 p.m. ET next Friday.

And finally, another way a candidate can qualify for the debate is by placing among the top six candidates in an average of national GOP presidential polls recognize by ABC News. The same time limits for the polls listed above apply to this criterion as well.

Quote: Carly Fiorina
February 3, 2016
Republican National Committee
310 First Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003
To the Chairman and Members of the Republican National Committee,
Our debate process is broken. Networks are making up these debate rules as they go along — not to be able to fit candidates on the stage — but arbitrarily to decide which candidates make for the best TV in their opinion. Now it is time for the RNC to act in the best interest of the Party that it represents.
In 2012, the debate stage featured 8 candidates until the Iowa Caucus and then all declared candidates still in the race were invited from that point forward, including the ABC New Hampshire debate. As of today, I will be the only candidate kept off the debate stage. To review, we beat Governors Christie and Kasich in Iowa this week when voters actually had their say. This campaign has the same number of delegates as Governors Bush and Kasich while Governor Christie has zero. We’re ahead of Dr. Carson in New Hampshire polling. We are 6th in hard dollars raised and have twice the cash on hand as either Governors Christie or Kasich. We are already on the ballot in 32 states, and there is a ground game with paid staff in 12 states. Yet, all of these candidates will be invited to the ABC debate. I will not.
There are only 8 candidates left. It’s time for the RNC to demand that media executives step aside and let voters hear from all of us.
I trust you will act appropriately.
Carly Fiorina
February 4th, 2016 at 6:51:35 AM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 23, 2012
Threads: 239
Posts: 6095
I have a $50 bet at 10-1 with SOOPOO on Ben Carson to win the GOP nomination. I asked to get out of with SOOPOO and he said I could for $49.
Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
February 4th, 2016 at 7:02:04 AM permalink
Evenbob
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 146
Posts: 25011
Quote: Wizard
I have a $50 bet at 10-1 with SOOPOO on Ben Carson to win the GOP nomination. I asked to get out of with SOOPOO and he said I could for $49.


Mr Wimpy as president? Bad bet. That guy
scares me in that he got even this far.
If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose.
February 4th, 2016 at 7:05:12 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 346
Posts: 12545
A more relevant question is whether the extended silly season is finally over. usually it ends in September. In October when it runs long.

I guess we'll know in the next few primaries.
Donald Trump is a one-term LOSER
February 4th, 2016 at 8:05:52 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 1068
Posts: 12569
The latest poll UMass Lowell/7News 2/1 - 2/3
36% Trump
15% Rubio
14% Cruz
10% all other candidates below threshold

Which means Trump will get 71% of vote (himself plus all candidates below threshold) compared to
49.60%+15.60%=65.2% :1980 run for Ronald Reagan
39.30%+20.90%=60.2% :2012 run for Mitt Romney
37.10%+20.10%=57.2% :2008 run for John McCain

However, as 2/12=16.67% that means that Rubio and Cruz will probably round up to two delegates apiece, leaving 8 delegates for Trump. Romney and McCain got 7 delegates apiece in 2008 and 2012.

Trump could end up accumulating a lot of delegates like this unless another four people drop out of the race before Super Tuesday (March 1).
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