RIP Scalia

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February 17th, 2016 at 8:23:14 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 689
Posts: 7926
Quote: Nareed
I don't think the country will stand for a vacancy in the Court for 10+ months. The country also won't stand for Obama nominating himself late in his term, either.

The two longest vacancies in post WWII time period were in days:
391 days: May 14, 1969 Jun 9, 1970 Abe Fortas resigns. Harry A. Blackmun begins term.
237 days: Jun 26, 1987 Feb 18, 1988 Lewis F. Powell, Jr. retires. Anthony M. Kennedy begins term.

President Obama has 11 months in office. Even if the new president is Republican he has to enter office before he can make a nomination, and then it will take a short while to get approved. If the new President is Democrat, than perhaps Obama will be nominated.

However, as John Roberts, 17th Chief Justice of the United States, is only age 61, and assumed office September 29, 2005 under President George W. Bush, he is unlikely to retire soon.

Former president William Taft, became 10th Chief Justice of the United States on July 11, 1921 (Nominated by Republican President Warren G. Harding) after 8 years of Democratic administration of Woodrow Wilson. Edward Douglass White, Jr., the former Chief Justice died in office on May 19, 1921. White had been nominated by William Taft when he was President.

Only 3 justices appointed since the Truman administration have died in office (two of them Chief Justices). It is highly unlikely that John Roberts will die during a Democratic administration, and he will probably attempt to retire during a Republican administration. I doubt that President Obama will take a position as Associate Justice and then hope that Roberts dies during a Democratic administration and that he is still popular.
February 17th, 2016 at 10:25:12 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: Pacomartin
The two longest vacancies in post WWII time period were in days:
391 May 14, 1969 Jun 9, 1970 Abe Fortas resigns. Harry A. Blackmun begins term.


That was over a year....

I don't know well what the political climate was back then. Today every day the Senate does not move on approving Obama's nominee, is a day they'll be blasted in the press as obstructionists. It will be worse if they keep up the banter that the president delay nominating anyone until after the election.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
February 17th, 2016 at 10:38:00 AM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 689
Posts: 7926
Quote: Nareed
It will be worse if they keep up the banter that the president delay nominating anyone until after the election.


Clearly the first nominee is not going to be approved. Someone has to take the dive, an ultra liberal judge, so that he has a reasonable chance at the second choice (more of a compromise candidate).

The Senate confirmed Burger to succeed Warren by a vote of 74-3 on June 9, 1969. Warren had announced he wanted to retire under President Johnson.

On May 14 1969, Abe Fortas resigned from the Court due to conflict of interest charges,creating an opening for Nixon's second nomination to the Court.

Nixon asked Lewis F. Powell, Jr. to accept a nomination to the Court at that time, but Powell demurred.

On August 21, 1969, Nixon nominated Clement Haynsworth, then a judge on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Haynsworth was defeated by a 55 to 45 vote on November 21, 1969. 19 Democrats and 26 Republicans voted for Haynsworth while 38 Democrats and 17 Republicans voted against the nomination. Haynsworth was the first Supreme Court nominee since John J. Parker (1930) to be defeated by the Senate.

On January 19, 1970, Nixon nominated G. Harrold Carswell to the seat. In 1948, Carswell had voiced support for racial segregation while running for a seat in the Georgia state legislature
On April 8, 1970, the United States Senate refused to confirm Carswell's nomination to serve on the Supreme Court. The vote was 51 to 45, with 17 Democrats and 28 Republicans voting for Carswell, and 38 Democrats and 13 Republicans voting against him.

On April 15, 1970, Nixon nominated Minnesotan Harry Blackmun to fill the Fortas vacancy. Blackmun was confirmed by the Senate by a vote of 94-0 on May 12, 1970
February 17th, 2016 at 1:36:27 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: Pacomartin
Clearly the first nominee is not going to be approved. Someone has to take the dive, an ultra liberal judge, so that he has a reasonable chance at the second choice (more of a compromise candidate).


Do not underestimate the GOP's capability of shooting themselves on the foot.

Suppose Obama nominates the world's most ultra-liberal judge, and the GOP refuses to even hold confirmation hearings until after the election. They do this because they're certain their guy will win and then the can reject this clown, so their guy will nominate a clown of their own. Then their guy loses, the democrats eke out a majority in the Senate, and they wind up with the world's most liberal judge.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
February 17th, 2016 at 2:21:46 PM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 1731
Is that recess appointment a real thing?

Obama could nominate an ultra-liberal justice.
The senate could refuse to hold hearings.
During recess, Obama could appoint that judge to the court.
= 2 years of ultra-liberal supreme court justice.

I think he'd be better served by nominating someone who had a chance of being confirmed under "normal" circumstances, even with the opposing parties in place like they are now.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
February 17th, 2016 at 3:23:53 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 99
Posts: 6300
Quote: Dalex64
Is that recess appointment a real thing?

Obama could nominate an ultra-liberal justice.
The senate could refuse to hold hearings.
During recess, Obama could appoint that judge to the court.
= 2 years of ultra-liberal supreme court justice.

I think he'd be better served by nominating someone who had a chance of being confirmed under "normal" circumstances, even with the opposing parties in place like they are now.


Not 2 years, would end in 2017 and POTUS Trump appoints the seat.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
February 17th, 2016 at 3:45:08 PM permalink
Pacomartin
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 689
Posts: 7926
There is something mind-boggling about this debate. The other four conservative judges are not as old, but one of them could get sick and want to retire.
I mean this is the way the constitution set up a procedure.

Anthony McLeod Kennedy July 23, 1936 (age 79)
Clarence Thomas June 23, 1948 (age 67)
Samuel Alito April 1, 1950 (age 65)
John Roberts January 27, 1955 (age 61)
February 17th, 2016 at 4:15:10 PM permalink
Dalex64
Member since: Mar 8, 2014
Threads: 2
Posts: 1731
Quote: AZDuffman
Not 2 years, would end in 2017 and POTUS Trump appoints the seat.


I thought the recess appointment would start in 2017, at the time of the next senate recess, and last until 2019.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan
February 17th, 2016 at 4:22:04 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 99
Posts: 6300
Quote: Dalex64
I thought the recess appointment would start in 2017, at the time of the next senate recess, and last until 2019.


No, that would leave it vacant. Would start at appointment and end at end of Congress session.
The man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it
February 17th, 2016 at 6:59:02 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Oct 24, 2012
Threads: 313
Posts: 10666
Quote: Dalex64
I thought the recess appointment would start in 2017, at the time of the next senate recess, and last until 2019.


I think it means an appointment made during a Senate recess. Not that it goes into effect when the Senate is on recess.
If Trump where half as smart as he thinks he is, he'd be twice as smart as he really is.
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