 |
 |
Is Trump ahead of Romney?
| March 5th, 2016 at 3:43:15 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | With Mitt Romney leading the anti-Trump campaign, I think there are two natural questions: (1) Is Trump ahead of Romney in the same set of states or at this same time? As of Super Tuesday in 2012 votes 8,119,566 split 4 ways 40% Romney 26% Santorum 23% Gingrich 11% Paul 100.00% As of Super Tuesday in 2016 votes 9,486,494 split 5 ways 35% Trump 29% Cruz 22% Rubio 7% Kasich 6% Carson So that is fairly inconclusive. It means there is a 5th person in the race, and Cuz is doing slightly better than Santorum with largely the same demographic, On states won Trump:(10)New Hampshire,South Carolina,Nevada,Alabama,Arkansas,Georgia,Massachusetts,Tennessee,Vermont,Virginia Cruz: (4) Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas,Alaska Rubio: (1)Minnesota Now looking at the same 15 states in 2012, you would think that Romney would have a huge advantage as Texas & Arkansas didn't vote until after all other candidates conceded Romney:(8)Texas,Arkansas, New Hampshire,Nevada,Alaska,Massachusetts,Vermont,Virginia Santorum:(5) Iowa, Alabama, Minnesota,Oklahoma,Tennessee Gingrich: (2)South Carolina, Georgia But Romney still had won only 8/15 states despite having the advantage of 2 of those states having primary at the end of May when he was no longer being contested(Texas and Arkansas) . I think we have to give it to Trump. (2) Is Romney setting himself up as a candidate in case of a brokered convention? Romney says "no way" but what else would he say. If he is to be the brokered candidate, then he must be dragged in to save the party. He has not endorsed any alternative to Trump. |
| March 5th, 2016 at 4:03:27 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
Trump has it way above Romney. Romney was ahead largely because "it was his turn to run," the poor method the GOP seems to prefer to use. Trump came in and changed everything. He is ahead because he is resonating.
He seems to be leaving the door open, but I still predict no brokered convention. Trump seems to keep getting stronger, not weaker as the media class keeps predicting (hoping?) They keep saying he is capped and dropout candidates votes go ABT. Hasn't really been the case. Romney had 2012 there for the taking, he left it on the table. Had he had even some of the street-fighter in him that Trump has he probably would have taken it. And that is a huge part of Trump support. The guy puts up a fight. Alpha male. He may lose the fight, but he is not going to allow a false claim of a "war on women" go unchecked. The President is a fink. |
| March 5th, 2016 at 6:37:32 AM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11804 |
?? The media loves Trump If there is one person the media wants to see nominated, its Trump Its the republican establishment that is freaking, not the media. The media are just reporting the freaking and going totally pro Trump by giving him tons of interview media time I lean left and I want Trump to win the nomination This is the most entertaining cycle in the history of modern politics I have my popcorn out as Trump is bragging about the size of his penis A republican presidential so un alpha male due to insecurity about the size of his penis. Yup, I want that dick to win the nomination :-) Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |
| March 5th, 2016 at 7:33:23 AM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 |
The media wants Trump to be short of 1237 delegates up until June 7th (which may happen). On June 7th, the last 12.3% of the delegates are assigned, mostly to Winner Take All. June 7 GOP primaries California, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota Winner take all 279 delegates New Mexico 24 proportional delegates It's been 40 year since a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having been decided in the primaries. In 1976, a brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan. RR gambled on announcing his choice for VP before the election, but it alienated more people than it won over. In the general election the results were: Nominee Jimmy Carter Gerald Ford Party Democratic Republican Running mate Walter Mondale Bob Dole Electoral vote 297 240 States carried 23 + DC 27 Popular vote 40,831,881 39,148,634 Percentage 50.1% 48.0% To win the general election Gerald Ford would have needed to win Ohio and either Wisconsin or Mississippi Closest Battle Ground States- Gerald Ford loss to Carter by number of votes and percentage of votes Ohio 11,116 0.27% of state Wisconsin 35,245 1.68% of state Mississippi 14,463 1.88% of state |
| March 5th, 2016 at 8:38:28 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
Ad salesmen love Trump. Commentators hate him. Can't handle an alpha-male who refuses to let them dominate him. The President is a fink. |
| March 5th, 2016 at 1:36:11 PM permalink | |
| terapined Member since: Aug 6, 2014 Threads: 73 Posts: 11804 |
Commentators hate him? Which ones? Commentators are meaningless in the age of the internet Look at Fox, Ailes had his whole operation go pro Rubio The Fox conservative audience dismissed the meaningless commentators and are going for Trump Sometimes we live no particular way but our own - Grateful Dead "Eyes of the World" |
| March 5th, 2016 at 9:00:49 PM permalink | |
| TheCesspit Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 23 Posts: 1929 |
He's a used car salesman. A very, very good one. Whether he's an alpha male or not doesn't matter. People buy what he sells. Problem is, like a used car, often what he's selling ain't worth the price he's selling it for. The jokes, the attacks, the populist approach. It's a sales tactic. You talk about RINOs.... he is probably as much of one as the others you mention as RINOs. I don't think Trump is evil, or an idiot, or fascist. He's the GOPs Obama. All bluster and speeches, and building swathes of an audience. But I think you'll find little substance if he's elected, he'll be stymied, sulk and get upset, and not build bridges. In fact all the things the right accuses Obama of, Trump will do as well. But good on the Republican grass roots... they needed something different to the stiffness like Romney, or the loonie Social conservative right of Cruz. It is said that your life flashes before your eyes just before you die.... it's called Life |
| March 5th, 2016 at 9:11:01 PM permalink | |
| Pacomartin Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 1068 Posts: 12569 | This weekend was a bright spot for Cruz in estimated delegate count 64 Cruz 49 Trump 13 Rubio 9 Kasich It is looking increasingly like no GOP candidate will have enough delegates before 7 June (and possibly not even then). The Democratic nomination may be open until June 7th as well, but it looks like Hillary will be so far ahead, that 7 June will just be formality. ============ In keeping with the OP, Trump won Kentucky and Louisiana. Romney only won Kentucky, but once again it was after all the other candidates had conceded. I think we still have to consider Trump ahead of Romney as he won 12 of 19 states, while Romney won 9 and lost 10 of 19 states, but 3 of 9 were after everyone else conceded. But remember that Romney WON all of the remaining states except the following three Mississippi March 8 North Dakota April 1 Colorado April 9 |
| March 5th, 2016 at 9:21:13 PM permalink | |
| Evenbob Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 146 Posts: 25011 | Trump will win MI and FL, but not OH. He might very well win PA, NJ, and NY. Cruz is not liked in that area, especially after his NY values crack. Rubio will pee his pants and go home till he grows up. Rubio might win PR tomorrow, Trump certainly won't. Puerto Rican's love Rubio.  If you take a risk, you may lose. If you never take a risk, you will always lose. |
| March 6th, 2016 at 4:54:59 AM permalink | |
| AZDuffman Member since: Oct 24, 2012 Threads: 135 Posts: 18212 |
That is part of the thing. RINOs never win because they cannot sell themselves. McCain thought because he thought the media liked him that he would get good push from them. Other RINOs think if only they act like the left then some liberals will cross over. None have had the charisma Trump had. Same as on the left, Obama had a good personality that enough people liked to get them excited. Even Bill Clinton never got a majority of the population to vote for him. BTW: I would hardly call the social conservatives "loonie." They are what would be considered normal 30 years ago. The President is a fink. |