The Third Party Candidate

Quote: terapined

LOL - just add an "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message" to that and air it 24/7 in the fall and she's good to go.

Quote: Aussie

Where would you guess Trump might be sitting right now had he run as an independent from the start? Would he be getting similar numbers?

Do you mean "poll numbers". If he was running as an independent then he would only get a handful of write in votes in the primaries.

I think the answer is a resounding "no". Although Trump was popular and he had a lot of people who supported him for POTUS, he really started gaining popularity when he began to beat people. Face it, the race has a little prize fight characteristics.

Feb 1 Iowa 24%
Feb 9 New Hampshire 35%
Feb 20 South Carolina 33%

On April 19, Trump won New York with 60% of the vote, but he never cleared 50% before that.

Personally, I never figured he would clinch the nomination. I expected him to go into the convention with a majority.

Bottom line: 2016 was an anomaly.

In 2004, Bush and Kerry combined received 99% of the popular vote.
In 2008, Obama and McCain combined received 98.6% of the popular vote.
In 2012, Obama and Romney combined received 98.3% of the popular vote.
In 2016, Trump and Clinton combined received 94.27% of the popular vote..

So nationwide, 7.8 million voters voted for someone other than Trump or Clinton in 2016. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson received almost 4.5 million votes, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1.5 million votes.

In Pennsylvania, 3rd party candidates received 83,000 votes in 2012. (1.4% of PA popular vote)
In Pennsylvania, 3rd party candidates received 268,000 votes in 2016 (4.4% of PA popular vote)
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes.
As of June 2019, Trump's approval in Pennsylvania was 44%. (Disapproval 53%)

In Wisconsin, 3rd party candidates received 39,000 votes in 2012.
In Wisconsin, 3rd party candidates received 188,000 votes in 2016.
Trump won Wisconsin by almost 23,000 votes.
As of June 2019, Trump's approval in Wisconsin was 42%. (Disapproval 56%)

In Michigan, 3rd party candidates received 51,000 votes in 2012.
In Michigan, 3rd party candidates received 251,000 votes in 2016.
Trump won Michigan by 10,700 votes.
As of June 2019, Trump's approval in Michigan was 40%. (Disapproval 55%)